Real exchange rate dynamics revisited: A case with financial market imperfections

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate dynamics and financial market imperfections. For this purpose, we first construct a New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model that incorporates staggered loan contracts as a simple form of the financial market imperfections. Our model with such a financial market friction replicates persistent, volatile, and realistic hump-shaped responses of real exchange rates, which have been thought very difficult to materialize in standard NOEM models. Remarkably, these realistic responses can materialize even with both supply and demand shocks, such as cost-push, loan rate, and monetary policy shocks. This implies that the financial market development is a key element for understanding real exchange rate dynamics.     

Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule

It is well known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's consensus half‐life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half‐lives. Further, we propose a median unbiased estimator for the system method based on the generalized method of moments with non‐parametric grid bootstrap confidence intervals. Applying the method to real exchange rates of 18 developed countries against the US dollar, we find that most half‐life estimates from the single equation method fall in the range of 3–5 years, with wide confidence intervals that extend to positive infinity. In contrast, the system method yields median‐unbiased estimates that are typically shorter than 1 year, with much sharper 95% confidence intervals. Our Monte Carlo simulation results are consistent with an interpretation of these results that the true half‐lives are short but long half‐life estimates from single‐equation methods are caused by the high degree of uncertainty of these methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

APEC's Trade Liberalisation and the WTO

The APEC process for trade liberalisation differs from that of the WTO multilateral and regional processes. This article outlines and assesses the APEC process and considers how it might facilitate the WTO process.     

Asymmetry in government bond returns

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modeling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.     

Trade Policy Issues in the Asian-Pacific Region:

Throughout the 1980s the Asian-Pacific region (and especially fast Asian countries) has achieved rapid economic growth accompanied by drastic changes in industrial production and trade. In the textile and clothing industry (‘textile’ industry hereafter), exporting countries display the ‘flying geese’ pattern. The first-tier exportec Japan, had retreated by the mid- 1970s. The second-tier exporters, the East Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs, consisting of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), are now being replaced by the third-tier, ASEAN and Chinese exporters. The drastic changes in production and trade have resulted from the spread of modern textile production techniques in response to changing comparative advantage. This has been caused by increased labour costs and exchange rate alignment in the first-and second-tier exporters, but it has also been affected by the trade policies of industrial importer countries. The textile industry trade has been tightly managed under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), and individual trade flows have been restricted by quota allocation under the MFA. At the current GATT Uruguay Round negotiations the major contracting parties agreed, in the Dunkel text of December 7997, on the gradual phasing out of the MFA restrictions over ten years. How will textile industry trade develop in the absence of the MFA restrictions? This paper focuses on the trade and production of textiles and clothing, but the case of this industry exemplifies important trade policy issues arising from the rapidly changing industrial structure in the Asian-Pacific region. In discussing textile trade policy issues, economists often focus on the MFA. However, the MFA has not produced a watertight regime. Textile production and trade have changed through product and process innovation, new management styles, and the ever-changing tastes of consumers. The MFA restrictions have effected these innovative changes, but the policy issues need to be discussed in this context of industrial change. ¹ 1 The author has published two papers on this issue (Yamazawa 1983, 1989). This paper is a follow-up of earlier discussion. As in past studies, the author has benefited from discussion at the Textile Advisory Committee meetings of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and from a field trip to northern China in early 1903.