Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Resource utilisation Efficiency: A South African Provincial Evaluation

The objective of this paper is to analyse the utilisation of production capacity and total under‐utilisation in order to identify weak‐performing industries across the nine South African provinces. Detecting inefficiencies within the different provinces will help to identify where sound managerial or government intervention is required, which can contribute to the future success of the New Growth Path Framework and the Strategic Integrated Projects. Using a multistage data envelopment analysis model at the subnational level, several categories of production factors are explored: intermediate demand, labour, capital, as well as taxes and subsidies. The results emphasise South Africa's weak infrastructure and the failure to effectively promote stability in managing factor inputs. The results further illustrate that industry scale efficiency for water and electricity are poorest across all provinces, highlighting the current water and energy supply concerns in South Africa and problem areas associated with the National Development Program.     

A Tale of Three Countries: What is the Relationship Between COVID-19, Lockdown and Happiness?

The COVID-19 pandemic led many governments to implement lockdown regulations to curb the spread of the virus. Though lockdowns do minimise the physical damage caused by the virus, there may also be substantial damage to population well-being. Using a pooled data set, we analyse the relationship between a mandatory lockdown and happiness in three diverse countries: South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. These countries differ amongst others in terms of lockdown regulations and duration. The primary aim is to determine, whether a lockdown is negatively associated with happiness, notwithstanding the characteristics of a country or the strictness of the lockdown regulations. Second, we compare the effect size of the lockdown on happiness between these countries. We use Difference-in-Difference estimations to determine the association between lockdown and happiness and a Least Squares Dummy Variable estimation to study the heterogeneity in the effect size of the lockdown by country. Our results show that a lockdown is associated with a decline in happiness, regardless of the characteristics of the country or the type and duration of its lockdown regulations. Furthermore, the effect size differs between countries in the sense that the more stringent the stay-at-home regulations are, the greater it seems to be.     

Three approaches to teaching business ethics

The question on what the purpose of teachingbusiness ethics should be, never fails todivide opinion. In this article three basicpositions taken with regard to this questionare distinguished. They are the cognitivecompetence, the behavioural competence and themanagerial competence positions. Once the coreof each these positions has been identified,the ontological presuppositions underlying eachof them is retrieved. It is then argued thatthese three positions and their accompanyingpresuppositions should not be regarded as rivalpositions, but as complementary approaches inteaching business ethics. Finally the teachingstrategies required by each of these threepositions are discussed.     

Recurrent Collusion: Cartel Episodes and Overcharges in the South African Cement Market

Review of Industrial Organization - Cartel cases may involve recurrent collusion, with cartel periods interspersed by periods of greater competition. An empirical model of recurrent collusion must...     

Unbundling the Moral Dispute About Unbundling in South Africa

Unbundling -- or the breaking up of conglomerates into smaller independent companies -- normally has very little to do with morality, because decisions to unbundle are usually taken on pure strategic business grounds. However, the way unbundling was introduced into the debate about the restructuring of the South African economy by the African National Congress (ANC), gave unbundling some very distinct moral undertones. In this paper the moral arguments in support of and in opposition to unbundling within the South African context are identified. It is then argued that these rival sets of arguments can be related back to two different sets of moral convictions about redistributive justice. The author argues that the impact of the prevailing moral dissensus on moral decision-making should be given due consideration when dealing with moral disputes such as unbundling. In the final part of the paper an illustration is given of how the moral dispute about unbundling should be approached amidst the mentioned moral dissensus.     

Corporate Governance in South Africa

The King Report on Corporate Governance (1994) evoked unprecedented interest in corporate governance in South Africa. This does not mean that corporate governance was not an issue of concern before the release of this historical report. To the contrary, corporate governance in its broader sense has been at stake since the inception of the first publicly owned companies in South Africa. This article intends to give an overview of corporate governance in South Africa. It starts by making a distinction between broad and narrow conceptions of corporate governance. Before applying this distinction to the practice of corporate governance in South Africa, a brief overview of the corporate landscape in South Africa is provided. Then the South African situation with regard to broad and narrow corporate governance respectively is analysed. The article ends with a discussion of the review of corporate governance that currently is in the making in South Africa. Throughout the article both the financial and ethical dimensions of corporate governance is attended to.