Dynamic monopoly pricing with network externalities

In this paper, we study the optimal dynamic monopoly pricing for a good which exhibits positive network externalities. When network externalities are of sufficient magnitude, we show that, contrary to the Coase theorem, (1) there is no time inconsistency problem; (2) subgame perfect equilibrium prices increase as time passes. From this point of view, positive network externalities allow the monopoly to commit itself credibly to increasing future prices.Ce papier étudie la tarification optimale intertemporelle d'un monopole qui vend un bien exhibant des externalités positives de réseau. Lorsque ces externalités sont suffisamment importantes, nous montrons que, contrairement au théorème de Coase, (1) il n'y a pas de problème d'incohérence temporelle, (2) les prix d'équilibre parfait croissent avec le temps. De ce point de vue, les externalités positives de réseau permettent au monopole de s'engager crédiblement sur une politique de prix futurs à la hausse.     

The explosive combination of religious decentralization and autocracy

The relationship between religion and politics is explored from a theoretical standpoint. Religious clerics can be seduced by an autocrat and political stability is at stake. The autocrat's decisions consist of two measures both capable of antagonizing religious clerics: adopting secular reforms and unduly appropriating part of the national wealth, which generally are complements. Compared to centralized religions, decentralized religions, such as Islam, tend to discourage secular reforms and corruption but those effects are not guaranteed if the autocrat accepts political instability. The main hypotheses and the central results of the theory are illustrated with regime case studies that refer to contemporary times.     

Mitigating shortage and distribution costs in damaged water networks

Recent events have sparked renewed interest in disaster mitigation for public infrastructures. Presidential Decision Directive 63 identifies water distribution as being among the most vital and vulnerable of our large-scale infrastructures. Water distribution networks are vulnerable to threats such as chemical and biological contamination, cyber attacks on computer-based management systems, and physical destruction from acts of nature and intentional attack. This research develops methods for configuring the undamaged portion of the water network to mitigate the consequences of physical destruction. The approach is to find a hydraulically feasible residual network that can be pressurized to meet the demand of a subset of demand sectors. Demand sectors not pressurized then receive water through truck distribution from pressurized sectors. The objective is to minimize weighted water shortage and water truck distribution costs by identifying sectors to pressurize along with an assignment of unpressurized sectors to pressurized sectors for water delivery by truck. The paper develops an optimization model, describes a solution method, and presents computational results for three example networks.     

Rebuilding the R&D engine in big pharma

From December 2000 to February 2008, the top 15 companies in the pharmaceutical industry lost roughly $850 billion in shareholder value. Although a number of factors--including the rise of generics, pricing pressures, regulatory requirements, and legal entanglements--are to blame, Garnier, the CEO of GlaxoSmithKline, believes that declining R&D productivity is his industry's primary problem. The way to solve it, he says, is to return power to the scientists--by reorganizing R&D into highly focused groups headed by inspirational leaders, seeking the best science outside as well as inside a company, fixing broken processes, and promoting a strong culture of innovation and passion for excellence. GSK has replaced its organizational pyramid with 12 "centers of excellence. The company has worked to untangle the quest for breakthrough drugs from the effort to develop best-in-class offerings and has overhauled incentives for the scientists who actually make discoveries. It has also pursued contractual relationships with academia and biotech companies in a bid to secure the best science, wherever it may reside. When the company began a sweeping reengineering of its R&D, it had only two products in late-stage development. Today it has 34--the most in the industry. But much more remains to be done, the author says. Significant cost efficiencies could be achieved by offshoring clinical trials. Development of new blockbuster drugs could be simplified and accelerated if researchers targeted only a limited segment of the potential patient population and then expanded to others over time. The innovation malaise in pharmaceuticals is not unique, Garnier says. Many other industries face the same challenges. A cultural revolution and a broad transformation of the organization are necessary first steps to rebuilding the R&D engine.     

Practical methods for measuring and managing operational risk in the financial sector: A clinical study

This paper analyzes the implications of the advanced measurement approach (AMA) for the assessment of operational risk. Through a clinical case study on a matrix of two selected business lines and two event types of a large financial institution, we develop a procedure that addresses the major issues faced by banks in the implementation of the AMA. For each cell, we calibrate two truncated distributions functions, one for “normal” losses and the other for the “extreme” losses. In addition, we propose a method to include external data in the framework. We then estimate the impact of operational risk management on bank profitability, through an adapted measure of RAROC. The results suggest that substantial savings can be achieved through active management techniques.     

Number of Accidents or Number of Claims? An Approach with Zero‐Inflated Poisson Models for Panel Data

The  hunger for bonus  is a well-known phenomenon in insurance, meaning that the insured does not report all of his accidents to save bonus on his next year's premium. In this article, we assume that the number of accidents is based on a Poisson distribution but that the number of claims is generated by censorship of this Poisson distribution. Then, we present new models for panel count data based on the zero-inflated Poisson distribution. From the claims distributions, we propose an approximation of the accident distribution, which can provide insight into the behavior of insureds. A numerical illustration based on the reported claims of a Spanish insurance company is included to support this discussion.     

A two-stage translog marginal cost pricing approach for Floridian hospital outputs

Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010, issues still remain regarding the mandated purchase of insurance to ensure more universal coverage. One such issue is the pricing of these insurance packages and whether or not the reimbursements will cover necessary services. Therefore, policy concerns exist that increasing the number of insured individuals may not curtail costs. Conversely, providers may not wish to treat patients covered by excessively frugal plans such as Medicaid; hence the trade-offs between access and cost control. In this article, we present findings from a cost function and a productivity approach to determine the marginal cost of providing inpatient hospital care for hospitals operating in Florida during 2005. Using these methodological approaches, we are able to use the marginal rate of transformation to determine the relative marginal costs while controlling for hospital technical and allocative inefficiency. Our work differs from earlier articles as we avoid the Greene problem for cross-sectional models through a two-step approach. By including both reimbursement rates under conditions of hospital efficiency, we can ascertain payment schemes that should, at least in theory, cover necessary costs for patient care without leading to excessive input usage.