央行沟通与通货膨胀预期

通过合理政策有效引导通货膨胀预期对当前中国经济具有重要现实意义.本文用自回归分布滞后模型和EGARCH模型捕捉央行沟通对通胀预期及其波动的影响.实证结果表明:央行沟通传递的货币政策信息被市场有效捕捉和解读,实现了通胀预期管理目的,增加沟通频率能有效降低通胀预期波动;但央行的"言行偏离"加剧了短期通胀预期波动,降低了央行沟通和货币政策操作的实际效果;通胀预期存在分布厚尾性和右偏斜,市场出现极端预期的概率较大,且更倾向于预期通胀上升,通胀预期波动的群聚特性表明其具有阶段性自我强化特征.研究结论为央行沟通的有效性提供了实证支撑,揭示出的通胀预期分布特征对提高央行预期管理措施的针对性具有参考价值.     

A Review of New Evaluation Models for Strategic Communication: Progress and Gaps

After identification of “stasis” in evaluation of strategic communication including public relations and corporate communication despite intensive focus for more than 40 years, recent initiatives in measurement and evaluation on three continents highlight a number of important advances in theory and practice. Although studies have identified a lack of standards and a narrow focus on “activities” and “outputs” in traditional evaluation models and literature, a two-year international study, which examined a number of recently developed evaluation frameworks and models and accompanying implementation guidelines, identifies several new concepts and dimensions in evaluation, along with some remaining gaps for further research. Based on content analysis of evaluation literature, interviews, and ethnography, this article reports four key findings of recent research and explains how these can contribute to theory-building and practice to transform the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public relations and corporate, government, organizational and marketing communication.     

The Roles of HRM in CSR: Strategic Partnership or Operational Support?

As the implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy requires promoting employee participation and initiating meaningful changes in organisational culture, the involvement of the human resource management (HRM) function in policy formulation and implementation is highly desirable. The relationship between the HRM and CSR functions is, however, under-investigated than other areas. Hence, there is a lack of clarity concerning HRM roles and the conditions under which they may be strategic or operational in nature. By drawing on data from interviews with 29 CSR and HRM professionals of large organisations in New Zealand, this paper argues that the role and contribution of the HR function in CSR is contingent on organisational variables such as the CSR structure, the scope and application of CSR and the nature of the HR functions. It concludes that in such contexts HRM is more likely to offer operational support in executing CSR rather than strategic input.     

城市贫困人群的医疗救助问题研究

随着城市居民最低生活保障制度的实施和不断完善,城市贫困人群的生活得到了一定程度的改善。但是,在现有体制下,贫困人群的医疗问题日益凸显出来,他们在医疗方面实际上处于一种双重缺失状态,如果不解决好这个问题,有可能会影响到整个社会保障制度的完善和社会的稳定。     

上海文化大都市战略与文化产业发展

当前,文化已经成为体现国际竞争力的重要方面,越来越受到世界各国的高度重视.市第九次党代会首次提出,上海要建成文化大都市,其中,文化产业发展至关重要.本文选择了美国、英国、日本、韩国四个有代表性的国家,对其文化产业发展路径和特点进行了剖析,并在此基础上提出了加快上海文化产业发展的若干建议.本文指出:由上而下的观念转变对理清文化产业发展思路具有关键性的作用,文化产业的发展需要政府与市场共同发挥作用,两者互动构成文化产业发展的形成机制,上海应结合自身特色确立发展文化产业发展重点并制定差别化的产业政策.     

Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments

Summary. Combining a strategy model, an inference procedure and a new experimental design, we map sequences of observed actions in repeated games to unobserved strategies that reflect decision-makers’ plans. We demonstrate the method by studying two institutional settings with distinct theoretical predictions. We find that almost all strategies inferred are best responses to one of the inferred strategies of other players, and in one of the settings almost all of the inferred strategies, which include triggers to punish non-cooperators, are consistent with equilibrium strategies. By developing a method to infer unobserved repeated-game strategies from actions, we take a step toward making game theory a more applied tool, bridging a gap between theory and observed behavior.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 19 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C80, C90.The authors are indebted for discussions with Ray Battalio, David Cooper, Robin Dubin, John Duffy, Ellen Garbarino, Susan Helper, Margaret Meyer, John Miller, Jim Rebitzer, Mari Rege, Al Roth, and John Van Huyck. The authors also benefited from discussants at economic department seminars at Case Western Reserve, McMaster and McGill University, University of Pittsburgh, SUNY-Stony Brook, and Texas A&M, and participants at the 2002 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society. We are grateful for the financial support provided by the Department of Economics at the University of Pittsburgh and Case Western Reserve University.     

Australian Audit Committees — Do They Meet Best Practice Guidelines?

The paper reports the results of a study of Australia's largest 250 companies' audit committees in two years (1998 and 2001). The audit committees were scrutinised on the bases of audit committee independence and the frequency of meetings. Australia's audit committees did not score highly on either criterion and most companies fell short of best practice guidelines. Further, it was puzzling and of concern that Australian audit committees appear to have deteriorated in terms of independence and frequency of meetings between 1998 and 2001.     

优惠性原产地规则的效应分析--兼论世界贸易组织统一优惠性原产地规则的必要性

在国际贸易日趋自由化的背景下，原产地规则尤其是优惠性原产地规则却日渐被用作非关税贸易保护措施。乌拉圭回合制定的《原产地规则协议》对非优惠性原产地规则做出了统一规定，但未能对优惠性原产地规则制订出多边规则。本文分析优惠性原产地规则的保护机制及其效应，指出WTO统一优惠性原产地规则的必要性。     

试论我国电子政务法规建设的现状与体系构建

<正> 一、当前我国电子政务法规建设的现状 由于网络在中国发展比较晚,与西方国家相比,中国涉及网络的立法体系也比较晚。直到20世纪90年代,中国开始出台关于网络的法规,主要涉及知识产权、网络安全、网络管理、网络服务、网络域名管理等方面。     

关注拆迁户

大中小城市在建设、在发展、在美化，要拆掉或多或少的原有住户，这样就产生了一批临时群体，叫做拆迁户。拆迁户涉及城市人口的一成、二成甚至三成以上。此事关系广大人民群众的切身利益，情况复杂，问题丛生，应引起高度关注。胡锦涛同志在“七一”讲话中说：