Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

苏南、苏中和苏北对外开放度与经济增长关系的实证分析

一个国家或地区的经济开放程度涉及很多方面，如贸易国际化、资本国际化、劳动力跨国流动、技术引进和输出等。基于操作上简便易行、指标上具有可比性和连续性、资料易于搜集和量化等原则，本文拟选择出口额、实际利用外商直接投资额与GDP建立对外开放度这一指标。通常情况下，有些学者还会考虑国际投资开放度这个指标，但是．在计划计算苏南、苏中及苏北的国际投资开放度这一指标时发现：一方面由于统计资料的限制．另一方面由于苏南、苏中及苏北的对外投资数额很小，     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

城市房屋拆迁中的公共利益在程序法上的界定——兼评《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》第十六条

公共利益内涵在立法上的缺失,造成大量个人利益被侵犯的案例,在城市房屋拆迁中尤其突出。本文通过探讨如何从程序上赋予受公共利益影响者参与对公共利益内涵的确定以及在个人利益受到侵犯时给予司法救济的途径的问题,试图从法律程序上限制政府对公共利益的滥用,并最大程度地维护公民的个人利益,以此暂时回避对公共利益内涵问题的探讨。     

关于开展航海职业教育扶贫工作的探讨

建设新农村的核心环节是提高农民收入。对贫困地区进行扶贫是党和政府解决贫困地区农民问题的重要手段之一,其中心工作是提高农民收入。通过开展航海职业教育扶贫工作可以有效地帮助转移农村富余劳动力,提高农民综合素质,增加农民收入,增强农民自身的造血功能,彻底改变贫穷的面貌;同时也有利于促进航运业和航海职业教育的发展。开展航海职业教育扶贫工作是一个多方合作共赢的过程。     

张娟娟 打破韩国垄断的第一人

2008年8月14日的北京奥运射箭赛场,第一次奏响了雄壮的中国国歌,这是一个应该被我们永远记住的历史瞬间.被韩国选手"霸占"了几十年的冠军领奖台首次站上了一位笑靥如花的中国选手--张娟娟.     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

我国农业期刊的生存与发展

文章通过PEST分析法对我国农业期刊的发展环境进行了分析,指出了我国农业期刊的现状,并提出了相应对策.