Modelling exchange of probabilistic opinions

Summary. This paper studies how communication or exchange of opinions influences correlation of beliefs. The paper focuses on a situation in which agents communicate with each other infinitely many times without observing data. It is an extension to the ‘Expert Problem’ in Bayesian theory, where the informational flow is asymmetric. Moreover, this paper generalizes the existing literature of communication that employs the common prior assumption (CPA) by allowing for heterogeneous beliefs. Some basic convergence results are shown in contrast with the results obtained under the CPA. Furthermore, several economic implications of the basic results are provided. Received: August 27, 2001; revised version: April 16, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" The results presented in this paper are taken from my Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with Mordecai Kurz about this subject. Also, I appreciate comments from Kenneth J. Arrow, Peter J. Hammond, Maurizio Motolese, Carsten K. Nielsen, Ho-Mou Wu and the anonymous referee.     

Fundamentals of a new economic paradigm in the information age

Mechatronic technology is becoming dominant, and the capitalist market economy is becoming replaced by an economic framework of self-management and information sharing. As services and information become major traded goods at the global level, new economic structures based on globally networking eco-share regions are emerging. This article posits the development of a ‘MuRatopian’ economy—the new social design of the information age. Five actors-prosumer, co-worker, self-financer, inhabitant and villager—are replacing the nation-state in eco-share regions, with full employment, fair income distribution, economic efficiency and incentive, freedom and participatory democracy, all facets of a superior global economy of the information age.     

A multistage method to measure efficiency and its application to Japanese banking industry

When measuring technical efficiency with existing data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques, mean efficiency scores generally exhibit volatile patterns over time. This appears to be at odds with the general perception of learning-by-doing management, due to Arrow [The economic implications of learning by doing. Review of Economic Studies 1964; 154–73]. Further, this phenomenon is largely attributable to the fundamental assumption of deterministic data maintained in DEA models, and to the difficulty such models have in incorporating environmental influences. This paper proposes a three-stage method to measure DEA efficiency while controlling for the impacts of both statistical noise and environmental factors. Using panel data on Japanese banking over the period 1997–2001, we demonstrate that the proposed approach greatly mitigates these weaknesses of DEA models. We find a stable upward trend in mean measured efficiency, indicating that, on average, the bankers were learning over the sample period. Therefore, we conclude that this new method is a significant improvement relative to those DEA models currently used by researchers, corporate management, and industrial regulatory bodies to evaluate performance of their respective interests.     

The impacts of export competition on international technology flows

Knowledge flow is a key to building technological capabilities. This article investigates how competition in international trade affects knowledge flow between countries using patent data and trade data for analysis. The main finding is that export competition in the third market (in our study, the US market) seems to have a positive impact on the flow of knowledge. The findings from this study contribute to the debate on ‘learning-by-exporting’.     

How does face influence the purchase of imitative new products? Moderating roles of product design characteristics

Face plays a profound role in consumption, but the question of how it impacts the purchase of imitative new products remains unanswered in the current literature. Imitative new products, which are legitimate innovations bearing similarities to existing products, are prevalent in many markets. This study investigates how two dimensions of face consciousness—the desire to gain face and the fear of losing face—influence consumers' purchase intentions regarding imitative new products by considering three product design characteristics (new product imitation locus, new product imitation scope, and product hedonism) as boundary conditions. We find through experiments carried out with adult Chinese consumers that the desire to gain face strengthens, but the fear of losing face weakens purchase intention. Moreover, the positive effects of the desire to gain face are weakened by imitation locus (form vs. function imitation) but enhanced by imitation scope (either form or function imitation vs. both form and function imitation); whereas the negative effects of the fear of losing face are strengthened by imitation locus but weakened by imitation scope. Product hedonism enhances the positive effects of the desire to gain face and augments the negative effects of the fear of losing face. This study thus contributes to the face literature by differentiating the roles of two dimensions of face consciousness in affecting consumption of imitative new products. In addition, this study contributes two important constructs—new product imitation locus and new product imitation scope—to the literature on imitative new products.     

Welfare effects of short-sale constraints under heterogeneous beliefs

This paper examines the welfare effects of short-sale constraints in an overlapping generations model of a financial economy with heterogeneous beliefs by focussing on the case of rational beliefs in the sense of Kurz (Econ Theory 4:877–900, 1994). To measure the social welfare, we adopt a measure that is based on the ex post social welfare concept in the sense of Hammond (Economica 48:235–250, 1981), instead of the standard ex ante criterion, since heterogeneity in beliefs invalidates it. Simulation results indicate the existence of socially optimal short-sale constraints.     

Differences in travel objectives between first‐time and repeat tourists: An empirical analysis for the Kansai area in Japan

This study investigates the differences in travel objectives between first‐time and repeat tourists. We conduct a questionnaire survey of travel agencies, which asked about specific tour plan for target tourists, their experiences and travel objectives in the Kansai area in Japan. We estimate a logit model for the relationship between travel objectives and visiting experiences. The results indicate that the first‐time tourists' main objective is to enjoy looking around sightseeing spots, while the repeat tourists' objective is simply to enjoy the stay, including the hotel visit and participating in events. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.