Trade Creation,Replacement, and Destruction in Regional Trade Agreements: Micro‐level Evidence for the UK*

Empirical questions surrounding the effect of regional trade agreements on international trade have typically been answered with reference to macro‐level gravity equations. Prominent within this has been whether they create or divert trade. In this paper, motivated by the recent development of theories of export‐platform FDI, we use micro‐level data to explore the part of trade diversion that follows from FDI. Using information on acquisition FDI in the UK manufacturing sector between 1988 and 1998 we find evidence of trade creation, replacement, and destruction from FDI external and internal to the EU.     

Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms

Exporting involves sunk costs, so some firms export whilst others do not. This proposition derives from a number of models of firm behavior and has been exposed to microeconometric analysis. Evidence from the latter suggests that exporting firms are generally more productive than nonexporters. They self‐select, in that they are more productive before they enter export markets, but the evidence suggests that entry does not make them any more productive. This paper investigates exporting and firm performance for a large panel of UK manufacturing firms, applying matching techniques. The authors find that exporters are more productive and they do self‐select. In contrast to other evidence, however, exporting further increases firm productivity.     

Using surveys of business perceptions as a guide to growth‐enhancing fiscal reforms

This paper assesses the merits of using business perceptions of growth constraints as a guide to growth‐enhancing fiscal policy reforms. Using endogenous growth models in which the government levies an income tax to provide public inputs to the production of private firms, the paper demonstrates that such perceptions of growth constraints may be misleading from a policy perspective. In particular, firms can be expected to systematically overestimate the growth‐enhancing effects of lower tax rates relative to public services and public capital, and underestimate the growth‐enhancing effects of greater provision of public capital relative to taxation and public services. In addition, we show that firms rank different public services and different types of public capital according to the actual costs they impose on firms. It is then shown that these theoretical predictions regarding how firms rank constraints correspond closely to the observed ranking of constraints by firms in the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys.     

Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?

An extensive evidence base affirms the importance of sunk costs and firm heterogeneity to exporting. Only higher productivity firms can profitably cover sunk costs and enter export markets. This is the standard explanation for the regularity with which econometric analyses report that exporters are more productive than non-exporters. But what happens to their productivity trajectory once they have entered? Some theory points to the possibility of a further productivity boost, attributable to the effects of learning and competition. We investigate whether this is because the potential for a post-entry boost depends upon how exposed to competition the firm is. We find that industry differences are an important marker for determining whether learning effects boost productivity after export market entry.     

Exporting and Productivity in the United Kingdom

This paper investigates various aspects of the links betweenexporting and productivity for a large sample of firms in theUnited Kingdom. We find evidence to support the propositionthat sunk costs are important. Self selection takes place, withlarger and more productive firms entering export markets, andfirms have to become more productive in order to enter. Industrycharacteristics also affect the likelihood of entry—bothindustrial and spatial agglomeration are important. When werely on an unmatched sample of firms we can find some evidenceof further productivity improvement after entry, but this disappearswhen we use a matched sample. Our results suggest that policyshould avoid simply subsidizing firms that may self select intoexport promotion policies and focus instead on reducing informationasymmetries and supporting development of clusters.     

Export-oriented FDI in the UK

It is well known that the performance of foreign firms comparedto domestic companies is superior with respect to employment,wages, and productivity. In this paper we detail the exportbehaviour of foreign affiliates in the United Kingdom relativeto indigenous firms. Our findings show that foreign firms aremore likely to export, and when they do so they are more exportintensive and overall contribute disproportionately to totalmanufacturing exports from the UK. While firm-level advantagesexplain some of these differences in export behaviour, strategicconsiderations dominate, where these include the differentialin costs, productivity, and market size between the UK and foreigncountries. That is, both horizontal and vertical motives canbe found for the use of the UK as an export platform by foreignfirms.     

Corruption clubs: endogenous thresholds in corruption and development

The relationship between corruption and economic development is characterised by three stylised facts: (i) a strong negative correlation between corruption and development (ii) countries can remain trapped in high corruption-low development or low corruption-high development equilibria (iii) amongst intermediate levels of development corruption levels are more variable, some countries have high corruption and others low corruption. This paper argues that existing models are consistent with the first two only and demonstrates how these models might be extended to capture all three. The paper searches for the location of corruption clubs within the data and provides some explanation of their cause.     

A SURVEY ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF TAX REFORMS FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This study reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex‐post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex ante. Based on these criteria, we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex‐post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the short‐run and long‐run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty, but there is disagreement with respect to the magnitude. Our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade‐offs between short‐run stabilization and long‐run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed. (JEL E62, H20, O20)     

Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run

Endogenous growth models, such as Barro (1990), predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth. We test this prediction using panels of annual and period‐averaged data for OECD countries during 1970–95, isolating long‐run from short‐run fiscal effects. Our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long‐run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods. Unlike previous investigations, our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables. JEL Classification: H30, O40 Validation du modèle de croissance endogène: dépenses publiques, fiscalité et croissance à long terme. Des modèles de croissance endogène comme celui de Barro (1990) prédisent que dépenses gouvernementales et fiscalité vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance. On met cette prévision au test à l'aide de données annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous‐périodes pour les pays de l'OCDE (1970–95) dans le but de départager les effets à court et à long terme. Les résultats valident fortement le modèle de croissance endogène et suggèrent que les effets fiscaux à long terme ne sont pas pleinement capturés par des méthodes utilisant des moyennes ou des méthodes statiques. Contrairement aux résultats d'enquêtes antérieures, les résultats proposés ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables à une spécification incomplète de la contrainte budgétaire du gouvernement, et ne semblent pas être l'effet d'écho de l'endogénéité des variables fiscales et de l'investissement.     

Financial factors and exporting decisions

Is financial health a determinant of export market participation? Is it an outcome? Using a panel of 9292 UK manufacturing firms over the period 1993-2003, we explore the links between firms' financial health and their export market participation decisions. We find that exporters exhibit better financial health than non-exporters. Yet, when we differentiate between continuous exporters and starters, we see that this result is driven by the former. Starters generally display low liquidity and high leverage, possibly due to the sunk costs which need to be met to enter export markets. Furthermore, we find no evidence that firms enjoying better ex-ante financial health are more likely to start exporting, and strong evidence that participation in export markets improves firms' financial health.