Causal Relations Among Stock Returns,Interest Rates,Real Activity,and Inflation

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper investigates causal relations and dynamic interactions among asset returns, real activity, and inflation in the postwar United States. Major findings are (1) stock returns appear Granger-causally prior and help explain real activity, (2) with interest rates in the VAR, stock returns explain little variation in inflation, although interest rates explain a substantial fraction of the variation in inflation, and (3) inflation explains little variation in real activity. These findings seem more compatible with Fama (1981) than with Geske and Roll (1983) or with Ram and Spencer (1983) .     

Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?

This article examines the relation between top executives' trading and the long-run stock returns of seasoned equity issuing firms. Primary issuers, who sell mostly newly-issued primary shares, significantly underperform their benchmarks, regardless of the top executives' prior trading pattern. However, top executives' trading is reliably associated with the stock returns of secondary issuers, who sell mostly secondary shares previously held by existing shareholders. On average, secondary issuers do not underperform their benchmarks. The results suggest that increased free cash flow problems after issue play an important role in explaining the underperformance of issuing firms.     

The Pricing of Best Efforts New Issues

This paper offers an explanation for the underpricing of best efforts new issues and demonstrates that best efforts contracts allow issuers to use information from the market. If investors obtain information which indicates that a project will not be profitable, their demand will be low and the offering will be withdrawn. If this information is costly, investors will have to be compensated for its purchase through a lower offering price, which means that issuers will have to underprice. This result is consistent with the empirical observation that underpricing is considerably greater for best efforts than for firm commitment contracts.     

供应链上非营利组织的整合营销传播组织模式研究

介绍了非营利组织与整合营销传播理论及供应链上非营利组织整合营销传播的特性,最后详细论述了供应链上非营利组织整合营销传播组织模式的设计思路。     

STABILIZATION POLICY, LEARNING-BY-DOING, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper shows that fiscal policy, when used for stabilizationpurposes, can have a positive effect on the economy's growth,on human capital accumulation, and on welfare. We introducestochastic productivity shocks into a model in which productivityis augmented through learning-by-doing If future benefits oflearning-by-doing are not fully internalized by workers, thenrecessions are periods in which opportunities for acquiringexperience are foregone. We identify configurations of disturbancesand other parameters for which a countercyclical policy maximizesgrowth and welfare.     

Investment Horizon and Composition of Optimal Portofolio: International Evidence

Little attention has been paid in the literature to the impact of different investment horizons on the portfolio compositiondespite its importance to portfolio managers. One exception isthe study by Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) on the U.S. stock market.Our paper extends the same study to the stock markets of Japan,Hong Kong and Korea. Using 40 individual stocks in each market,our results support those of Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) in thatthe composition of an optimal portfolio depends heavily on theinvestment horizon. When the investment horizon lengthens, theproportion of defensive stocks becomes larger while that ofaggressive stocks becomes smaller.     

ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG MALE AND FEMALE ECONOMISTS MARGINAL AT BEST?: A SURVEY OF AEA MEMBERS AND THEIR VIEWS ON ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

The authors survey economists in the United States holding membership in the American Economic Association (AEA) to determine if there are significant differences in views between male and female economists on important policy issues. Controlling for place of current employment (academic institution with graduate program, academic institution—undergraduate only, government, for‐profit institution) and decade of PhD, the authors find many areas in which economists agree. However, important differences exist in the views of male and female economists on issues including the minimum wage, views on labor standards, health insurance, and especially on explanations for the gender wage gap and issues of equal opportunity in the labor market and the economics profession itself. These results lend support to the notion that gender diversity in policy‐making circles may be an important aspect in broadening the menu of public policy choices. (JEL A11, J78, A14)     

Family Decision Making and Resource Protection Adequacy

This study examines the correlation between resource protection and the intrahousehold distribution of bargaining power. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, the analysis quantifies potential changes in the surviving individual's living standard to evaluate the adequacy of resource protection. Individuals who generate a larger share of family income, are more financially knowledgeable, or have the “final say” in family decisions leverage their bargaining power to secure higher protection of their hypothetical widowhood living standard. Consequently, spouses with more bargaining power are less likely to experience declines of their living standard in the event of their spouse passing away and are more likely to be overprotected.     

福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸分布特征及潮汐影响分析

为了掌握福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸(HAAs)的含量、时空分布规律及其来源,对水体中HAAs化合物进行取样调查。根据桐江溪水文情势及沿岸特点设置10个取样点,于2017年12月及2018年7月按照涨潮、退潮情况分别对水样进行采集,检测HAAs分布情况,同时将卤乙酸(HAAs)与水质特性、涨退潮进行了相关性分析。研究发现,HAAs是普遍存在于桐江溪中的污染物质。其中,一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)等5种卤乙酸(HAA_5)质量浓度为0.44～3.39μg/L;一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)、三溴乙酸(TBAA)、一溴一氯乙酸(BCAA)、一溴二氯乙酸(BDCAA)、二溴一氯乙酸(CBDAA)等9种卤乙酸(HAA_9)质量浓度为0.83～56.15μg/L。桐江溪中HAAs主要为DCAA,TCAA,TBAA 3种,其中DCAA为制药厂及医院排水导致,主要分布在下游;TCAA主要来源于河段上游的农业生产活动;TBAA为上游沸石矿尾矿库受雨水冲刷而流入的Br~-所生成,主要分布于河流中下段。相关性分析结果表明,温度与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现正相关,pH值与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现负相关;TCAA质量浓度于相同季节不同潮汐及不同季节相同潮汐时均呈现上游高于下游的现象,其他HAAs均不因涨潮、退潮的差异造成质量浓度分布的变化。掌握桐江溪HAAs的含量、时空分布规律及来源,探讨其与水质的相关性,对于净水工艺选择、水厂出水HAAs含量的溯源分析、水体环境风险评估以及研究水生生物体内HAAs的累积效应等有重要意义。