Product and country substitution in imports: An empirical comparison of theoretical concepts

Product and Country Substitution in Imports: An Empirical Comparison of Theoretical Concepts. — The paper focuses on the shortcomings of current unit-values based measures for estimating product and country substitution in imports. The results of the bilateral index number technique in measuring changes in the country composition or product mix of imports were found to be inadequate, which was shown in an analysis of data on the French import market for chairs. An improved technique is briefly summarized, and its applicability compared with the bilateral index number technique. The new method performed accurately and provided a reliable basis for a refined analysis of changes within import markets.     

Regional integration in East Asia. From market-driven regionalisation to institutionalised regionalism?

Conclusions The analyses have shown that ESACs unprecedented emergence in world trade and capital transactions has been accompanied by a growing share of intra-area transactions. At least for the goods sector, the evidence is clear. Intra-area transactions grew faster than those to the rest of world, and the latter rose faster than world trade. Given this “double growth” performance, there was no trade diversion in the static zero sum meaning. Driving forces of fast growing intra-area transactions were basically internal conditions, such as “natural” trading partnership (geographical and cultural proximity, size, and complementarity in resource endowment and production structure), rising income levels fostering intra-industry trade, the economic opening of China, and unilateral liberalisation of trade and capital transactions on a non-discriminatory basis. It cannot be denied that external factors as protectionism and recession in non-Asian OECD countries have also contributed to this performance. Yet, it seems safe to assume that even without the US and European recession in the early eighties and early nineties and without the spread on non-tariff barriers, intraarea transactions would have received sufficient fuels from the internal factors to grow more rapidly than transactions with the rest of the world.¹⁷ Furthermore, a base effect of a low initial level of intra-area trade cannot be neglected.     

Does International Trade Catch Up with National Trade of Countries? Yes

The article applies an index suggested by Jeffrey Frankel on how to measure the gap between the intensity of national versus international transactions of a country to more than 100 countries over four periods between 1990 and 2005. The gap stands for “incomplete” globalization. It is shown that the gap has steadily declined for most countries over the sample period, irrespective of income levels. While larger economies are still less globalized than small economies, differences in domestic market size have become less important as a dividing line between more and less globalized economies.     

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