Changing rewards in contests: Has the three-point rule brought more offense to soccer?

In the mid-nineties FIFA decided to increase from two to three the number of points assigned to the winning team of a soccer match played under traditional round-robin national leagues. Since a game of soccer can be regarded as a contest, FIFA's measure provides an interesting case-study for analysing how a change in the system of rewards (from a zero to a non-zero sum rule) may affect the contestants' equilibrium behaviour. In this paper we try to assess, both theoretically and empirically, whether FIFA's new point rule has changed soccer towards a more offensive game, in which teams adopt more risky strategies. In particular, we evaluate the “na?ve hypothesis” according to which the measure would induce every team to play always more offensively, and we explore the extent to which the change in teams' behaviour may be affected by quality differentials between teams. Our most important hypothesis is that when the asymmetry between opposing teams is large enough, an increase in the reward for victory induces the weaker team to play more defensively, rather than the opposite. By looking at a subset of matches held in the Portuguese first division league, which approximate the conditions of our model, we find support for this hypothesis. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: May 2001     

Exploring sources and outcomes of trust and commitment to nonprofit organizations: The case of Amnesty International Portugal

The interactions between customers and organizations have been regarded as a core aspect in cocreating and developing new products and practices. The current study explores these interactions in the context of citizens and nonprofit organizations. The study comprises two parts: (a) a qualitative approach using interviews and the analysis of social networks to better understand the organization's social media marketing practices and corresponding outcomes and (b) a quantitative approach to analyze antecedents and outcomes of trust and being committed to participate in a nonprofit organization such as Amnesty International. From the qualitative approach, the findings highlight that Amnesty International uses social media (Facebook) to share information, and citizens tend to consider sharing posts, but they do not express new ideas or interact with the organization. These findings contribute to structure the model analyzed in the second stage of the research. Regarding the qualitative approach, the results show that organizational credibility is the most significant driver of trust followed by communicative ability. Affectively commitment to participation and relationship perception act as outcomes of overall commitment.     

An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal

In this paper, we investigate Portuguese government expenditures and revenues as an example for a long time series. Our hypothesis states that there may be periods when the deficit is sustainable and those when it is not. Usually, after a period of unsustainable deficits, a new regime takes over. These regime shifts call for an approach that takes into account a non-constant structure of the underlying data generating process. Consequently, we use different tests which we set up in a time-varying framework. We apply and compare the results of the Trace test, Breitung’s non-parametric test and the Bohn test. We identify several break points and find that the Trace test performs worst in this case while Breitung’s test and the Bohn test give similar results. Comparing the results with history, we find that the last two tests best reflect what happened historically.     

Special issue on advanced methods to measure tourism impacts. Editors’ introduction

Portuguese Economic Journal -     

The Role of Website Quality on PAD,Attitude and Intentions to Visit and Recommend Island Destination

This study investigates the effect of website stimuli on positive attitude and intentions to visit and recommend, through three emotional responses (pleasure, arousal and dominance). The model was tested regarding three island‐related websites. Findings show the role of emotions as mediators between website quality attitude and intentions. Arousal and dominance are revealed to be more important in the formation of a positive attitude than pleasure. Visual appeal and ease of use, followed by information, seem to be the most important components in forming a perception of the islands' website quality. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic burden of hospital malnutrition and the cost–benefit of supplemental parenteral nutrition in critically ill patients in Latin America

Abstract

Aim: Disease-related malnutrition (DRM) is a prevalent condition that significantly increases the risk of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients, particularly those with critical illness. Limited data is available on the economic burden of DRM and the cost–benefit of nutrition therapy in high-risk populations in Latin America. The aims of the present study were to estimate the economic burden of DRM and evaluate the cost–benefit of supplemental parenteral nutrition (SPN) in critically ill patients who fail to receive adequate nutrient intake from enteral nutrition (EN) in Latin America.

Methods: Country-specific cost and prevalence data from eight Latin American countries and clinical data from studies evaluating outcomes in patients with DRM were used to estimate the costs associated with DRM in public hospitals. A deterministic decision model based on clinical outcomes from a randomized controlled study and country-specific cost data were developed to examine the cost–benefit of administering SPN to critically ill adults who fail to reach ≥60% of the calculated energy target with EN.

Results: The estimated annual economic burden of DRM in public hospitals in Latin America is $10.19 billion (range, $8.44 billion–$11.72 billion). Critically ill patients account for a disproportionate share of the costs, with a 6.5-fold higher average cost per patient compared with those in the ward ($5488.35 vs. $839.76). Model-derived estimates for clinical outcomes and resource utilization showed that administration of SPN to critically ill patients who fail to receive the targeted energy delivery with EN would result in an annual cost reduction of $10.2 million compared with continued administration of EN alone.

Limitations: The cost calculation was limited to the average daily cost of stay and antibiotic use. The costs associated with other common complications of DRM, such as prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation or more frequent readmission, are unknown.

Conclusions: DRM imposes a substantial economic burden on Latin American countries, with critically ill patients accounting for a disproportionate share of costs. Cost–benefit analysis suggests that both improved clinical outcomes and significant cost savings can be achieved through the adoption of SPN as a therapeutic strategy in critically ill patients who fail to receive adequate nutrient intake from EN.     

The Importance of Quality,Satisfaction, Trust,and Image in Relation to Rural Tourist Loyalty

In the past decade, tourism firms have become aware of the great benefits of maintaining a solid base of loyal customers. Because rural tourism is a relatively new phenomenon in some countries, the main antecedent of tourism loyalty remains infrequently studied in rural lodgings. In this work, a structural equations model is explored, with PLS technique, giving relevance to the interrelationships among image, quality, satisfaction, and trust and among these variables and the tourists' behavior variables. Instruments are identified and exploratory research was undertaken among rural tourists of the main rural lodgings in two border regions of Spain and Portugal. The results confirm image as a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, trust, and loyalty for rural tourism, too. The analysis also confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and loyalty, and trust has a positive influence on loyalty. Image is shown as a key factor to rural lodging managers. This study may help rural tourism managers to develop and implement effective relationship marketing strategies.     

Segmentation by benefits sought: the case of rural tourism in Madeira

Rural tourism has been promoted as an effective catalyst for growth in rural areas severely hit by the rural structuring process. However, with regard to islands, rural tourism has been mainly advertised and promoted as a counterpoint to mass tourism. While in most Western countries rural tourism has been in place for decades, islands have been pursuing a rural tourism agenda only since the 1990s. Consequently, we face a dearth of research regarding motivation factors that attract tourists to the rural hinterland on islands. The purpose of this study is to segment and profile rural tourists based on benefits sought in order to gain a better understanding of the current demand trends. The data collection procedure were based on a self-administered survey applied to a sample of 180 tourists, and four clusters were identified. The relaxer cluster which comprises individuals attracted by opportunities to relax and recharge batteries, are the most dominant, suggesting that the sector mimics, to a large extent, the main tourism market. This is a problematic outcome because the sector is failing to attract a more diverse and wealthy clientele. Due attention should also be paid to other clusters. The ruralist segment values relaxation in natural segments to escape from daily routine, the ‘want it all segment’ is composed of tourists interested in all kind of activities and the family-oriented cluster is mainly interested in socialising with the family. Implications of our preliminary conclusions for theory and practice are discussed.