The Impact of Fraudulent False Information on Equity Values

There are two types of stock price manipulation examined in the theoretical literature: (1) insider trading, which involves private information that is true and (2) the public spreading of fraudulent false information. While there is a large empirical literature on insider trading, this is the first empirical article to examine the impact of false, fraudulent public information on stock prices and trading volume. We find that such false information, even after being denied by a credible source such as the SEC, generates both abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume. We also find that the effects of the false information on security returns and volume can be persistent for at least 2 weeks. In addition, we show that perpetrators of false news attacks can make potentially large profits from such market manipulations.     

How should Central Banks determine and control their bank note inventory?

This paper looks at a relatively unresearched but important area in money and banking – namely the provision of currency by the Central Bank. One of the most important functions of Central Banking is the provision of liquidity to the economy. However, in fulfilling this function, Central Banks have to be prepared for unexpected money demand shocks as well as production, transportation and cost of capital constraints. The paper develops a dynamic cost minimizing note inventory model that solves for the Central Bank’s optimal note order size and frequency. As part of the modeling exercise a value at risk model is used to solve for an inventory “cushion.”     

Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules

In this paper we examine the profitability of some technical trading rules in the Swedish stock market over the 1986-2004 periods. The results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and could discern recurring-price patterns for profitable trading, even after accounting for the effects of data snooping biases. To assess the profitability of different technical trading rules and strategies, we adopt White's [White, H. (2000). A Reality Check for data snooping, Econometrica, 68, 1097-1126.] Reality Check test that quantifies the data snooping bias adjusting for its effects. Our results also support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy-and-hold strategy even considering transaction costs.     

The cost of being late? The case of credit card penalty fees

This paper is the first in the literature to examine the determinants of US credit card penalty fees. Many critics of credit card fees – including a number of US Senators – have argued that credit card penalty fees reflect banks’ market share. Using a unique data set we find that fees are increasing in customer risk which supports the position of defenders of penalty fees, such as banks. However, our finding that fees are increasing in a bank's market share is consistent with the concerns expressed by politicians and regulators. We also find card penalty fees are direct substitutes for card interest rates.     

Stock market dynamics with rational liquidity traders

In the Kyle (1985) finite horizon model of stock market dynamics with a trader who holds long-lived information, informed trading intensities rise with time, and the slopes of the equilibrium price schedules fall. This paper shows that this result depends crucially on the irrational liquidity trader assumption. We replace the irrational noise traders with a sequence of rational, risk averse, liquidity traders who receive endowment shocks to their holdings of the risky asset. We demonstrate that unless liquidity traders are sufficiently risk averse, the slope of equilibrium price schedule rises over time, while informed trading intensities fall. In particular, Kyle's result holds only when liquidity traders are so risk averse that they ‘over-rebalance’ their portfolio's holdings of the risky asset, so that their final holdings of the risky asset have the opposite sign of their initial position.     

Three centuries of asset pricing

Theory on the pricing of financial assets can be traced back to Bernoulli's famous St Petersburg paper of 1738. Since then, research into asset pricing and derivative valuation has been influenced by a couple of dozen major contributions published during the twentieth century. These seminal works have underpinned the key ideas of mean–variance optimisation, equilibrium analysis and no-arbitrage arguments. This paper presents a historical review of these important contributions to finance.     

Agriculture and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia

This paper is a comparative study of the role of agriculturein economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Popularnotions of economic duality and agricultural squeeze in sub-SaharanAfrica are re-examined, and new explanations in terms of agrarianstructures and resource availabilities are put forward to accountfor the apparent economic duality in that continent. Comparisonwith surplus labour economies of Asia highlights the constraintsposed by the prevailing agrarian structures for capital accumulationand industrialisation in post-colonial sub-Saharan Africa. Policyconclusions from this new perspective are contrasted with theconventional policies focusing on price reform and market liberalisation.     

Identity and in-group/out-group differentiation in work and giving behaviors: Experimental evidence

We investigate the existence and relative strength of favoritism for in-group versus out-group along multiple identity categories (body type, political views, nationality, religion, and more) in four alternative contexts: (1) giving money in a dictator game, (2) sharing an office, (3) commuting, and (4) work. We carried out two studies. The first study entailed hypothetical situations and imaginary people; the second study was similar to the first, but the dictator game component was incentivized (actual money) and involved actual receivers. Our subjects’ behavior towards others is significantly affected by their respective identities. (1) Those that belong to the in-group are treated more favorably than those who belong to the out-group in nearly all identity categories and in all contexts. (2) Family and kinship are the most powerful source of differentiation, followed by political views, religion, sports-team loyalty, and music preferences, with gender being basically insignificant. (3) The hierarchy of identity categories is fairly stable across the four contexts. (4) Subjects give similar amounts and discriminate between in-group and out-group to similar degrees in the hypothetical and incentivized dictator games.