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排序方式: 共有112条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Luiz C.M. Miranda C.A.S. LimaAuthor vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(8):1445-1470
Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences. 相似文献
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Valeeva Natalia I.; Meuwissen Miranda; Lansink Alfons Oude; Huirne Ruud 《European Review of Agricultural Economics》2006,33(4):511-541
This paper examines control measures for improving food safetyin the dairy chain, using an integer linear programming model.The chain includes feed (compound feed production and delivery),farm (dairy farm) and dairy processing (transport and processingof raw milk, delivery of pasteurised milk) blocks. Results showthat 65 per cent of the maximum possible food safety improvementcan be achieved at relatively low extra cost per ton of milk(4.27), fairly evenly distributed across the blocks. Highersafety levels can be attained by increasing the farm block'scontribution, but at much higher extra cost (44.37 for the maximumattainable). 相似文献
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Tsion Taye Assefa Miranda P.M. Meuwissen Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2017,68(3):861-880
We investigate the relationship between the transmission of price volatility and market power in the German fresh pork supply chain. We use a theoretical model underpinning this relationship followed by an empirical application that uses monthly farm, slaughterhouse and retail pork price data for the period 2000–2011. We examine both the relationships of market power with price level transmission and price volatility transmission in the chain. We use a vector error correction model and least squares regressions to analyse price transmission and price volatility transmissions, respectively. Results show that retail market power limited both types of transmissions. Competition inducing policy measures coupled with measures that support price risk management initiatives of chain actors are suggested. 相似文献
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Luiz C.M. Miranda Author Vitae Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(2):175-192
A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects. 相似文献
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Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This article uses detailed industry and household data to understandwhy Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 198595.The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demandin the product market were responsible. This article makes twocontributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscoresthat the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performanceof the product market is an important determinant of the performanceof the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstratesthat this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets thatare often available in developing countries, can inform policydesign. 相似文献
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J.E. Boritz D.B. Kennedy Augusto de Miranda e Albuquerque 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》1995,4(2):95-111
This paper investigates the performance of Artificial Neural Networks for the classification and subsequent prediction of business entities into failed and non-failed classes. Two techniques, back-propagation and Optimal Estimation Theory (OET), are used to train the neural networks to predict bankruptcy filings. The data are drawn from Compustat data tapes representing a cross-section of industries. The results obtained with the neural networks are compared with other well-known bankruptcy prediction techniques such as discriminant analysis, probit and logit, as well as against benchmarks provided by directly applying the bankruptcy prediction models developed by Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) to our data set. We control the degree of ‘disproportionate sampling’ by creating ‘training’ and ‘testing’ populations with proportions of bankrupt firms ranging from 1% to 50%. For each population, we apply each technique 50 times to determine stable accuracy rates in terms of Type I, Type II and Total Error. We show that the performance of various classification techniques, in terms of their classification errors, depends on the proportions of bankrupt firms in the training and testing data sets, the variables used in the models, and assumptions about the relative costs of Type I and Type II errors. The neural network solutions do not achieve the ‘magical’ results that literature in this field often promises, although there are notable 'pockets' of superior performance by the neural networks, depending on particular combinations of proportions of bankrupt firms in training and testing data sets and assumptions about the relative costs of Type I and Type II errors. However, since we tested only one architecture for the neural network, it will be necessary to investigate potential improvements in neural network performance through systematic changes in neural network architecture. 相似文献
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Consumption cues (e.g., brands, money, and advertisements) can have powerful effects on cognition, perception, and behavior, yet how people regulate responses to such cues is not well understood. This is surprising given that consumption cues are increasingly present in nontraditional consumer contexts, such as healthcare, education, and politics. This research develops a measure of two types of consumer regulation strategies, cue‐based and budget‐based (studies 1–4), and demonstrates that these strategies influence how people respond to consumption cues in a political context (study 5). Specifically, in a study involving the 2012 American Presidential Election, priming survey participants as consumers (versus citizens) influenced both voting intentions and self‐reported voting behavior, and the newly developed consumer regulation scale was instrumental in detecting this effect. These findings suggest there may be merit in the escalating debate and concern over referring to voters as consumers. 相似文献
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