Dynamic linkages among equity markets in the Middle East and North African countries

The relaxation of security laws and regulations in emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provides abundant opportunities for foreign investors. These markets exhibit high-expected returns and substantial volatility. In this paper, we investigate the lead/lag relationship between the MENA countries and regions. We find no market causality or spillover from one country to another in the North Africa region. Our results for the Levant region reveal that there are linkages between stock markets in this region. The results for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region show that there is more interaction and linkage in the GCC region than in the North Africa and Levant regions. An unexpected result is that UAE's stock market leads all the markets in this region. Finally, we investigate linkages among the three regions. We find that GCC influences the other two regions.     

Forecasting Stock Index Futures Price Volatility: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility.     

The decentralisation of employment relations in the British public sector

The aim of this article is to investigate differences between the British public and private sectors in terms of the decentralisation of employment relations. Drawing on data from the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey, the article arrives at three main conclusions. First, the analysis reveals that while local‐level managers in both sectors have similar levels of responsibility for employment relations issues, those in the public sector are, on the whole, significantly less likely to be able to exercise authority. Second, the results indicate some marked variations in practice within the public sector, with managers in education having the greatest level of authority. Finally, the article explores the extent to which differences in local‐level authority between the public and private sectors can be explained by higher‐level collective bargaining, and the presence of higher‐level personnel specialists. These factors have only a partial influence, and do not fully explain why local‐level employee relations managers in some areas (notably health) are less able to exercise authority than their counterparts in the private sector.     

Sustainable resource use,economic development,and public regulation

The role of production technology for sustainable economic growth and resource management in the multispecies renewable resources industries is a neglected issue, particularly in complex tropical ecosystems. Given the still rudimentary understanding of biological interactions among species, even in most temperate ecosystems, the importance of under-standing the technological and economic interactions is heightened for sustainable economic growth and public regulation. This paper evaluates these interactions for the multiproduct gill net fisheries of Peninsular Malaysia. Standard price and quantity controls may have little promise. Gear regulations, a policy of constant escapement, and managing the entire mix of species as a single stock for economic rather than biomass yield appear the most promising management tools given the limited regulatory options.     

Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.     

Impact of Financial Development on the Environmental Quality in Iran

In recent decades, undesirable environmental changes, such as global warming and greenhouse gases emission, have raised worldwide concerns. In order to achieve higher growth rate, environmental problems emerged from economic activities have turned into a controversial issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on environmental quality in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical data over the period from 1970 to 2011 were used. Also by using the Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag （ARDL）, short-term and long-term relationships among the variables of model were estimated and analyzed. The results show that financial development accelerates the degradation of the environment; however, the increase in trade openness reduces the damage to environment in Iran. Error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 53% of imbalances would be justified and will approach their long-run procedure. Structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients were stable over the period.     

The pre-acquisition evaluation of target firms and cross border acquisition performance

The paper investigates the impact of the pre-acquisition evaluation of target firms on the performance of cross border acquisitions using data from a sample of acquisitions made by UK firms. The findings provide reasonable support for organizational learning theory, suggesting that the more the acquiring firm learns about the target firm then the better will be the acquisition performance. Specifically, we find support for the hypothesis that thorough evaluation of the strategic and cultural fit positively influences cross border acquisition success. Further, the analysis reveals that detailed evaluation of the target firm's employee and business capability improves acquisition performance. The managerial implications of the findings and directions for future research are also discussed.     

How Effective Is Foreign Aid at Improving Health Outcomes in Recipient Countries?

Since the United Nations’ establishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000 the world has observed an increasing trend in foreign aid provided by more affluent countries to developing nations. This paper examined whether foreign aid (total foreign aid and health sector aid) has been effective in improving the health of citizens in recipient nations since establishment of the MDGs. Five facets of population health were examined: infant mortality, life expectancy, the annual death rate, and immunizations against measles and diphtheria. Using a panel data set covering 90 developing countries, observed annually over 2001–2015, fixed-effects multivariate regressions with alternative specifications were estimated for each of these measures. The findings reveal that foreign aid has had little to no effect on population health since 2000. We found some evidence that foreign aid has improved life expectancy in developing countries, however, the effect is very small. In light of these findings, continued monitoring of the relationship between foreign aid and health outcomes would be both valuable and prudent.

     

The Implementation and Adaptation of the Balanced Scorecard in a Government Agency

Despite considerable progress in understanding the adoption and practice of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) as a performance management tool in government organisations, how a well‐designed BSC can become a sustainable organisational practice remains under explored and of central importance. Through a qualitative field study carried out within a government agency (Alpha), this paper demonstrates that Alpha's senior management implemented a BSC framework because they believed it would benefit the agency to realise its broader organisational and socio‐economic goals, namely sustainable organisational efficiency and social status. We conclude that an organisation's performance management systems can travel across internal organisational boundaries over time and could be assimilated by organisational actors to become a sustained internal control mechanism in a complex socio‐political setting.     

从发展差距角度看民族地区建设小康社会的艰巨性——以新疆为例

全面建设小康社会,区域难点在民族地区,城乡难点在农村。少数民族地区的农牧区处于此二者的交汇处,属我国全面建设小康社会的难中之难。全面建设小康社会这一宏伟目标能否顺利实现,关键在于民族地区农牧区居民收入与生活水平是否能达到小康标准。从民族地区农村居民收入的增长趋势看,现阶段很难达到目标。因此,未来的关键是下大力气增加农牧民收入,并加快增长速度。