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1.
This paper examines whether firms manage analyst forecasts andthe associated value consequences. We find that earnings forecaststend to grow pessimistic over the forecast horizon and theseforecast changes and their timing are key determinants of whetherfirms generate positive earnings surprises: Late forecasts thatraise (lower) the consensus sharply reduce (raise) the probabilityof positive surprises. This findng is the opposite of that predictedif consensus revisions reflected new information arrival. Investorsseem to be "misled": downward consensus revisions lead to largeabnormal returns following the earnings announcement. Paradoxically,downward forecast management reduces post-announcement shareprice, as the impact of reduced forecasts dominates the gainfrom generating positive surprises. 相似文献
2.
Tito Pietra 《Economic Theory》1992,2(3):321-340
Summary This paper considers the set of equilibria of two-period, sunspot economies withS purely extrinsic states of nature in the second period andI assets with linearly independent nominal payoffs. The span of the payoff matrix contains the vector [1, ... , 1] (i.e., inside money). The set of economies is described in terms of (sunspot-invariant) utility functions. IfS>I> 0, there is an open, dense set of economies such that, given a vector of no arbitrage asset prices, the set of equilibrium allocations contains a smooth manifold of dimensionS—I. Such a manifold contains at least one nonsunspot equilibrium (and at most a finite number of such equilibria).The paper was written while I was a visitor at C.O.R.E., Universitè Catholique de Louvain, with the financial support of a S.P.E.S. fellowship. I would like to thank D. Cass, H. Polemarchakis and P. Siconolfi for their helpful comments. 相似文献
3.
Tito Boeri 《European Economic Review》2005,49(8):2057-2077
Employment protection legislation (EPL) is not enforced uniformly across the board. There are a number of exemptions to the coverage of these provisions: firms below a given threshold scale and workers with temporary contracts are not subject to the most restrictive provisions. This within-country variation in enforcement allows us to make inferences on the impact of EPL which go beyond the usual cross-country approach. In this paper we develop a simple model which explains why these exemptions are in place to start with. Then we empirically assess the effects of EPL on dismissal probabilities and on the equilibrium size distribution of firms. Our results are in line with the predictions of the theoretical model. Workers under permanent contracts in firms with less restrictive EPL are more likely to be dismissed. However, there is no effect of the exemption threshold on the growth of firms. 相似文献
4.
We consider an economy with asymmetric information and two types of agents, fully informed and uninformed. Uninformed agents update their information observing equilibrium prices and the equilibrium levels of other agents’ excess demand. We show that, for a generic set of economies, there are rational expectations equilibria which are partially revealing on an open, dense set of signals of positive Lebesgue measure, provided that the dimension of the signal space is sufficiently larger than the dimension of the commodity space. 相似文献
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6.
Schumpeterian creative destruction occurs not only at the industry level, but also with each firm trying to maintain or improve its position in the technology race. Based on a rich data set on more than 4,000 German business units, this paper shows that the simultaneous occurrence of hiring and separations is more likely in firms with the most advanced technologies in use than in units more distant from the technological frontier. This positive relation between technological advance and creative destruction documented also by churning and ‘excess job reallocation equations - holds particularly in recovery years, while it is weak during a recession. The explanation provided for this finding in the paper is that firms can also improve technologies by upgrading machinery and/or retraining workers, and these ‘implementation’ costs arc likely to be lower during economic downturns. 相似文献
7.
Tito Boeri 《Labour economics》2012,19(3):281-290
The process leading to the setting of the minimum wage so far has been overlooked by economists. There are two common ways of setting national minimum wages: they are either government legislated or the byproduct of collective bargaining agreements, which are extended erga omnes to all workers. We develop a simple model relating the level of the minimum wage to the setting regime. Next, we exploit a new data set on minimum wages in 68 countries having a statutory national minimum level of pay in the period 1981–2005. We find that a Government legislated minimum wage is lower than a wage floor set within collective agreements. This effect survives to several robustness checks and can be interpreted as a causal effect of the setting regime on the level of the minimum wage. 相似文献
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9.
This article presents a structured process to make facility location decisions based on regional industrial capabilities. It presents a framework for collecting business intelligence on major cities of the region of interest. In the next step, the collected business intelligence is incorporated into a quantitative decision analysis model for facility location. While the proposed framework is generic and builds on the existing international business and supply chain management literature, the article mainly focuses on the facility location problem of a distribution firm that is not well represented in the literature. Two cases—one each for new and established distributors who are trying to sell to the Mexican market—are presented in the article. 相似文献
10.
The fundamental problems facing European welfare states – high unemployment and unsustainable public pensions plans in particular – have been in the political debate for years, so why have we seen so little reform? To find out, we surveyed the opinions of citizens in France, Germany, Italy and Spain on their welfare states and on various reform options. This is what we found. First, most workers underestimate the costs of public pensions, though they are aware of their unsustainability. Second, the status quo is a majoritarian outcome: a majority of citizens opposes cuts to social security and welfare spending, but also opposes further increases. Since population ageing without reform implies an automatic expansion, our results suggest that most citizens would favour reforms that stabilize but do not shrink the current welfare states. Third, many would welcome changes in the allocation of benefits. A large number of workers in Italy and Germany would be willing to opt out of public pensions and replace them with private pensions, though the details of how this scheme is formulated matter for its popularity. And many Italians and Spaniards would welcome an extension of the coverage of unemployment insurance. Fourth, conflicts over the welfare state are mainly shaped by the economic situation of the respondent, while political ideology plays a limited role. Disagreements are found along three dimensions: young versus old, rich versus poor, and 'outsider' versus 'insider' in terms of labour market status. From a practical point of view, this suggests that there is scope to bundle reforms strategically in order to build a large and mixed coalition of supporters.
— Tito Boeri, Axel Börsch-Supan and Guido Tabellini 相似文献
— Tito Boeri, Axel Börsch-Supan and Guido Tabellini 相似文献