Financial Regulation,Financial Globalization,and the Synchronization of Economic Activity

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on business cycle synchronization using a proprietary database on banks’ international exposure for industrialized countries during 1978 to 2006. Theory makes ambiguous predictions and identification has been elusive due to lack of bilateral time‐varying financial linkages data. In contrast to conventional wisdom and previous empirical studies, we identify a strong negative effect of banking integration on output synchronization, conditional on global shocks and country‐pair heterogeneity. Similarly, we show divergent economic activity due to higher integration using an exogenous de‐jure measure of integration based on financial regulations that harmonized EU markets.     

Information,Pricing and Efficiency in Cash and Futures Markets: The Case of Hogs

The price leadership roles among hog cash and futures markets are assessed to locate points of price discovery and to examine flows of information among these markets. Several years of data are analyzed using lead/lag causality analysis and strength of linear causality measures. Although significant instantaneous relationships exist among hog cash and futures markets, one-way causality tests indicate that generally the futures market dominates cash hog markets in the price discovery process.     

Earnings and Percentage Female: A Longitudinal Study

Comparable worth advocates assume that the relation between earnings and percentage female in an occupation is due to crowding or other forms of discrimination. An alternative explanation is that the relation stems from women freely choosing different occupations. Using longitudinal data to control for time-invariant omitted variables, as well as cross-sectional data (for comparison with previous research), we find that although men's estimated penalty is not reduced, the percentage female penalty falls substantially for women and is not statistically significant. These results imply that estimates of the percentage female effect based on cross-sectional data may be inflated for women–except for those with intermittent labor force participation. This group does experience a sizeable penalty for working in female-dominated occupations. Hence, a comparable worth policy would most likely benefit women with discontinuous employment.     

Return Dynamics of Japanese Stock Index Options

This paper addresses the return dynamics of stock index options. Distributional moments are suggestive of a skewness preference hypothesis that provides an economic rationale for investors' interest in options. There is no evidence of detectable intermarket arbitrage opportunities from cross- sectional tests of volatility ratio and implied elasticity. Joint tests of market efficiency and parity dynamics suggest that the longer the remaining life of at-the-money options, the higher the likelihood of parity deviations being absorbed in response to percentage index changes. There are also indications of maturing Japanese options markets from rational expectations and parity regression tests.     

Portfolio Selection and the Investment Performance of the UK Pension Funds*

Pension funds are the main institutional investors, accounting for 38 per cent of personal sector net financial wealth. As a result of their growing importance in mobilizing personal sector saving, they have emerged as the principal institutional investor, controlling over £200bn of funds at the end of 1987, their total net assets equalling 38 per cent of personal sector net financial wealth. Pension funds also dominate domestic asset markets, owning 27per cent of the stock of outstanding UK equity, 23 per cent of UK government securities and 17 per cent of total UK holdings of overseas equity. In this paper we present the conclusions from recent research, undertaken as part of an updating of the LBS Financial Model. Our results suggest that UK pension fund investment since 1980 is better than previous studies have suggested and, in particular, that funds outperformed the equity market in the 1980s, offering a higher return for any given level of risk. In addition fund behaviour is slow to change, with past behaviour exerting the strongest influence on current investment patterns. Fund managers also appear guilty of “short termism” in that they place little weight on events beyond the next three months. However, this has not made them inefficient. Finally, we find that actions to restrict the funds' surpluses should not affect their investment behaviour. Our results also suggest that the costs from exchange controls in the 1970s were substantial, amounting to some £4bn per year.     

Corporate Control around the World

We study corporate control tracing controlling shareholders for thousands of listed firms from 127 countries over 2004 to 2012. Government and family control is pervasive in civil-law countries. Blocks are commonplace, but less so in common-law countries. These patterns apply to large, medium, and small firms. In contrast, the development-control nexus is heterogeneous; strong for large but absent for small firms. Control correlates strongly with shareholder protection, the stringency of employment contracts and unions power. Conversely, the correlations with creditor rights, legal formalism, and entry regulation appear weak. These patterns support both legal origin and political theories of financial development.