WORLD CUP 2010: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY CHALLENGES INFORMED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY 2006

The paper provides an ex post analysis of the financial burden and economic benefits of the World Cup (WC) in Germany 2006. Based on the usual cost-benefit measures, the experience of WC 2006 appears to be in line with existing empirical research on large sporting events and sports stadiums, which have rarely identified significant net economic benefits. The lessons from Germany 2006 provide a context for analyzing the potential risks and benefits for South Africa (SA), the WC hosts in 2010. For SA, a careful analysis might be even more urgent to assure the sustainability of investment in stadiums. The paper also argues that the "feel-good" and public image effects of sports events should no longer be neglected in cost-benefit studies of large sporting events, even though these effects have the character of experience goods, and their value are thus likely to be underestimated ex ante. ( JEL L83, R53, R58)     

FUTURE GROWTH PATTERNS IN SOUTH AFRICA—A COMMENT*

In their article Bailey and Hogan¹ employ an econometric model containing 12 endogenous variables to be explained by 10 behaviour equations, two identities and 8 predetermined variables. An open Keynesian model is employed to present projections of possible future growth patterns of the South African economy for the period 1969/80. The performance of any model is to a large extent determined by the rationale behind the equations, and the plausibility of the coefficients used. It is the purpose of this comment, firstly, to offer certain criticisms of the equations and coefficients in the model; secondly, to discuss the growth rates of the exogenous variables used in the Economic Development Programme (EDP), ² and criticised by Bailey and Hogan, and finally to evaluate the performance of the model.     

AN ALTERNATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON SOUTH AFRICA'S PUBLIC DEBT, 1962‐1994

The history of public debt reflects the cumulative effect of fiscal decisions and real outcomes in the economy. In the South African case the published record on public debt distorts the historical perspective on the associated fiscal decisions. This paper shows the impact of adjusting the South African public debt on an accrual basis to take account of two major obligations assumed in the first half of the 1990s, namely actuarial pension fund deficits and government debt of the apartheid homelands. The adjusted series is less volatile and rose less steeply between 1989 and 1996 than the official, cash‐based debt series. Failing to account for the evolution of these obligations exaggerates the impression of weak fiscal discipline in the early 1990s and exemplary fiscal prudence in preceding decades.