Adaptive capacity to technological change: A microfoundational approach

Research summary> : W e take a microfoundational approach to understanding the origin of heterogeneity in firms' capacity to adapt to technological change. We develop a computational model of individual‐level learning in an organizational setting characterized by interdependence and ambiguity. The model leads to organizational outcomes with the canonical properties of routines: constancy, efficacy, and organizational memory. At the same time, the process generating these outcomes also produces heterogeneity in firms' adaptive capacity to different types of technological change. An implication is that exploration policy in the formative period of routine development can influence a firm's capacity to adapt to change in maturity. This points to a host of strategic trade‐offs, not only between performance and adaptive capacity, but also between adaptive capacities to different forms of change . Managerial summary : W hy are firms differentially effective at adapting to technological change? We argue that firms differ in the adaptive capacity of the routines that underlie their capabilities. These differences arise well before change occurs, and result because firms build routines that are differentially responsive to signals of performance decline associated with technological change. Thus, early managerial efforts to build superior productive efficiency must be complemented by efforts to build superior adaptive capacity. Our theory suggests that managers can prepare for technological change by implementing policies, in the formative period of organizational development, that promote individuals' exploration of novel actions. However, there are trade‐offs because preparation aimed at building adaptive capacity to one type of technological change may limit adaptive capacity to other types of change . Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The power of imperfect imitation

We examine the power and limitations of imitation. Naive intuition may hold that the efficacy of imitation would be diminished by imperfections in copying high‐performing firms. Employing a computational model, we study the dynamics of imitation when firms are subject to bounded rationality that limits their ability to copy the market leader. We find that imperfect imitation can generate unexpectedly good outcomes for follower firms—indeed, better than the outcomes achieved if they were perfect imitators. Moreover, imperfect imitation, from time to time, enables follower firms to surpass superior firms. These findings suggest there is an adaptive role to mechanisms, such as bounded rationality, that make perfect imitation difficult. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does China change the game?

Business Economics - It is vastly overdone to suggest that China changes the game. The challenges posed by the Chinese economy will not disappear because the U.S. puts pressure on them. The swing...     

中央银行为何不能挤破泡沫?

中央银行不应该挤破资产价格泡沫.由于资产价格泡沫一般源自"非理性繁荣"、技术进步和金融自由化等,因而货币条件变动与泡沫上涨之间的联系十分微弱.即使中央银行愿意采取行动挤破泡沫,成本-收益分析也表明这种行动是不合理的.     

Fiscal Success During COVID-19 Says Believe the Good News

Intereconomics - Too much blood in terms of unemployment and sweat in terms of intellectual effort has been spent on trying to determine the amount of fiscal space that economies have — our...     

Analysing the Agricultural Costs and Non‐market Benefits of Implementing the Water Framework Directive

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a fundamental change in the management of water in Europe with a requirement that member states ensure ‘good ecological status’ for all water bodies by 2015. Agriculture is expected to bear a major share of WFD implementation costs as it is compelled to reduce the emission of diffuse water pollutants. The research outlined here comprises interdisciplinary modelling of agricultural land use, hydrology and consequent water quality effects to consider both agricultural costs and the non‐market recreational use (and potentially non‐use) values that implementation of the Directive may generate. A theme throughout the research is the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits of WFD implementation, which is addressed through the use of GIS techniques in the modelling of agricultural land use, the integration of land use and hydrological models, and the estimation, aggregation and transfer of the economic value of the benefits.     

Integrated assessment of water framework directive nitrate reduction measures

This article illustrates a statistical approach for deriving farm economic impacts of policy options aiming to reduce nitrate diffuse pollution. Building upon Fezzi et al. (2008) , who assess the costs of Water Framework Directive‐related measures on farm accounts data, we estimate regression models allowing such costs to be predicted for any region for which land use patterns and livestock numbers are known. We derive economic impacts in terms of changes in farm gross margin for (a) reducing inorganic fertilizer application, (b) reducing livestock stocking rates, and (c) converting arable land to ungrazed grassland. A case study of the agriculturally diverse Yorkshire Derwent catchment, in the North of England, demonstrates the overall approach. In addition, for this illustration, we combine these cost estimates with prediction of the water quality changes arising from each measure, derived via an integrated hydrological model of the Derwent. This allows a comparison of cost‐effectiveness. Finally, we implement our spatially explicit approach to target the measures to specific subcatchments identified as being of particular environmental policy interest.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.