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Thomas D. Willett Aida Budiman Arthur Denzau Gab-Je Jo Cesar Ramos John Thomas 《The World Economy》2004,27(1):25-44
Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behaviour of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, that portfolio investors and hedge funds played a dominant role in initiating and/or spreading the crisis; that moral hazard kept efficient markets from predicting the crisis; and, finally, the common lender hypothesis of Kaminsky and Reinhart. In the process we also test implications of the Calvo-Mendoza model of rational investor ignorance. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong forms should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is necessary to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode. 相似文献
3.
We study the local turnpike property for two classes of infinite-horizon discrete-time deterministic maximization problems
which have common applications, e.g., optimal growth theory. We follow a functional-analytic approach and rely on an implicit
function theorem for the space of the sequences which converge to zero. We shall assume the existence of an optimal path which
is not necessarily a steady-state. Relying on material developped in Blot and Crettez (Decis Econo Finance 27:1–34, 2004),
“On the smoothness of optimal paths” Decis Econ Finance, 21:1–34, 2004), we provide conditions under which a variation in
the initial conditions (i.e., capital stock and discount rate) yields an optimal solution which converges toward a reference
solution when time becomes infinite. We also provide new results on bounded solutions of difference equations.
We gratefully thank the editor, Silvano Holzer, and two anonymous referees for remarks and advices on a previous version of
this paper. 相似文献
4.
AbstractThis paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium. 相似文献
5.
Ashok Bardhan Raša Karapandža Branko Urošević 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2006,32(1):9-20
We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where
agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly
useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement
because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract. 相似文献
6.
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated. 相似文献
7.
This work presents the participation factor and the valuation of a first-generation structured product with European call options on the Eurostoxx, when the uncertainty of the yields is modeled through log-stable processes. The basic statistics of the index yields are also exposed, the α-stable parameters are estimated, and the valuation of the of the structured models is compared through the log-stable and log-Gaussian models using inputs from the bond markets; concluding that investors obtain higher yields than those of the bond market through both models, and that the differences of the yields depend on the participation factor and on the value of the index at the time of liquidation. 相似文献
8.
Individual labor earnings observed in worker panel data have complex, highly persistent dynamics. We investigate the capacity of a structural job search model with on‐the‐job search, wage renegotiation by mutual consent, and i.i.d. productivity shocks to replicate salient properties of these dynamics, such as the covariance structure of earnings, the evolution of individual earnings mean, and variance with the duration of uninterrupted employment, or the distribution of year‐to‐year earnings changes. Structural estimation of our model on a 12‐year panel of highly educated British workers shows that our simple framework produces a dynamic earnings structure that is remarkably consistent with the data. 相似文献
9.
Philipp Engler Terhi Jokipii Christian Merkl Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser Lúcio Vinhas de Souza 《Empirica》2007,34(5):411-425
This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential
dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian
banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized
banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.
相似文献
Lúcio Vinhas de SouzaEmail: |
10.