Confounding and collinearity in regression analysis: a cautionary tale and an alternative procedure,illustrated by studies of British voting behaviour

Quality & Quantity - Many ecological- and individual-level analyses of voting behaviour use multiple regressions with a considerable number of independent variables but few discussions of their...     

Evaluating museum visitor experiences based on user-generated travel photos

ABSTRACT

This research introduces online travel photos published on social media platforms as a complementary data resource to examine the behavior and experience of museum visitors. The practical value of online travel photos is demonstrated through a case study of popular Hong Kong museums, particularly by using the photo content and metadata available from the Flickr platform. The proposed approach is a generic method for understanding museum visitor behavior and preferences, and supports museum practitioners in developing improved products for visitors. The case study findings are particularly beneficial for tourism managers, especially those in Hong Kong, in promoting and attracting tourists to visit local museums.     

Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts

We investigate why new, high-risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment. We develop an equilibrium model in which rational, risk-averse agents overinvest in a risky technology, possibly to the point that its expected return is negative. Overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments. Competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with “keeping up with the Joneses” properties that can induce herding. Because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology, our model can explain why new, risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles.     

Measuring the Impact of Regulation: A Study of Canadian Basic Cable Television

We evaluate the appropriateness of regulation within the Canadian cable television industry by applying both parametric and non-parametric approachesto measure scale efficiency. Although we begin with a sample offering adequatedegrees of freedom for parametric estimation, important policy issues lead us toconsider further estimation over sub-samples. Since some of these sub-samplesare small enough that parametric models cannot guarantee reliable estimates, weobtain production characteristics non-parametrically through data envelopmentanalysis. The nonparametric results for scale efficiency support the parametricresults. We find evidence against a natural monopoly argument that might havejustified continuation of the mandated monopolization of Canadian cable televisionservice. By the end of the sample period, there were no longer substantial economiesof scale in most relevant markets.     

The English Football Industry: profit,performance and industrial structure

The English (Association) Football League is a long established industrial cartel selling a highly popular product with only imperfect substitutes. Despite that, the majority of its member clubs lose money and the industry has faced successive financial crises over the last decade. This paper develops an empirical model of the financial performance of English League clubs using a high quality dataset of 48 clubs over the period 1974–89. The underlying model explains how rents are competed away through the maximising behaviour of club owners subject to production constraints. This model is parameterised by a system of equations which describe the behaviour of a maximising owner subject to demand and production constraints. The model is then used to examine the coordination failure which lies at the heart of the English Football League's decline and to assess the prospects for the Premier League.     

Consumer insurance

This report sets out the legal requirements which the European Consumer Law Group believes ought to be incorporated into consumer insurance contracts.The opening sections deal primarily with the law and practice governing pre-contractual negotiations. Subject areas covered include: (I) the need for accurate information about the cost of insurance and the extent of cover; (II) the use of consumer protection devices such as the cooling-off period and/or the offre préalable; (III) whether there should be a right to insurance per se; (IV) the unfairness of the law governing declarations of risk and non-disclosure.The next section of the paper analyses the terms of the insurance contract by commenting upon: (V) the wording form and language of contracts; (VI) the law governing warranties and Obliegenheiten; (VII) the legal effect of false replies to questionnaires and basis of the contract clauses; (VIII) whether the terms of insurance contracts should be subject to general consumer legislation.The penultimate section of the paper is concerned with (IX) the duration and (X) the termination of insurance contracts. The paper concludes by addressing itself to (XI) a number of miscellaneous matters and by (XII) stressing the need for effective redress procedures in the insurance field. The recommendations contained therein are then annexed in summary form.

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Verbraucher und Versicherung

Zusammenfassung Die European Consumer Law Group, eine Vereinigung von Rechtslehrern und Rechtspraktikern des Verbraucherrechts in Europa, macht in ihrem hier veröffentlichten Bericht eine Reihe von Vorschlägen über die grundlegenden Anforderungen, die aus der Sicht des Verbrauchers an die Gestaltung von Versicherungsverträgen zu richten sind. Dabei wird bewußt versucht, unter Absehen von den außerordentlichen regulatorischen Unterschieden innerhalb der Mitgliedstaaten der EG und der anderen europäischen Staaten ein auf Verbraucher zugeschnittenes Versicherungsvertragsmodell zu entwickeln. Zuerst geht es dabei um die Phase der Vertragsverhandlungen. Der Verbraucher benötigt exakte Informationen über die Kosten der Versicherung und den Deckungsumfang (I). Vorgesehen ist die Verankerung von verbraucherschützenden Regeln Über ein Widerrufsrecht und/oder die Verpflichtung des Versicherungsunternehmens zur Abgabe eines bindenden Angebots (Grundsatz der offre préalable) mit vorläufigem Deckungsschutz (II). Erörtert wird weiterhin die Frage eines Kontrahierungszwanges des Versicherungsunternehmens, wie sie im Schwedischen Verbraucherversicherungsgesetz vorgesehen ist (III). Die Angabepflichten des Versicherungsnehmers bezüglich des versicherten Risikos sind klar zu gestalten und hinsichtlich der Rechtsfolgen bei Verstoß vor unnötigen Härten freizuhalten (IV).Der nächste Teil des Papieres geht auf die Versicherungsbedingungen im einzelnen ein. Dazu gehören Sprache und Gestaltung des Vertrages (V), Regeln über Obliegenheiten und sogenannte warranties (Zusicherungen des Versicherungsnehmers bezüglich des versicherten Risikos) (VI), Rechtsfolgen bei Verstoß gegen Vertragsbestimmungen (VII) und Notwendigkeit der Anwendung allgemeiner verbraucherschützender Regeln, etwa über allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen, auch auf Versicherungsverträge (VIII).Danach wendet sich das Papier der Dauer (IX) und der Beendigung (X) von Versicherungsverträgen zu. Zum Schluß werden eine Reihe sonstiger Fragen des Versicherungsvertrages behandelt (XI), um schließlich die Notwendigkeit effektiver Beschwerde- und Rechtsdurchsetzungsmechanismen (XII) hervorzuheben. Ein Annex faßt die konkreten rechtspolitischen Empfehlungen zusammen.

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The European Consumer Law Group (E.C.L.G) is a group of lawyers and law scholars in the EEC, concerned with legal aspects of consumer protection. Correspondence regarding this paper should be directed to: Mr. Alex Schuster, Lecturer in Law, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.