Endogenous fertility and growth in a model with old age support

Summary. This paper examines the interrelationship between capital accumulation, fertility, and growth by introducing an endogenous fertility decision into Diamond's (1965) neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that children provide old age support and that individuals incur a variable time cost of raising children, it investigates the potential for cyclical fluctuations in the capital-labor ratio and fertility, as well as for development trap phenomena to be observed. It is shown that when capital and labor are highly substitutable in production, there is a unique steady state equilibrium, and either damped or undamped oscillations in fertility and the capital-labor ratio may occur. However, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, two steady state equilibria may exist; one with a high capital-labor ratio and a high rate of population growth, and the other with a lower capital-labor ratio as well as a lower population growth rate. The former is a saddle, while the latter may be either a source or a sink. In the latter case development traps are possible. Received: June 16, 1997; revised version: December 18, 1997     

Manufacturing growth and local employment multipliers in China

We study the impact of employment growth in manufacturing on job creation in the non-tradable sector for prefecture-level cities in China. Using the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population, we apply the shift-share approach to isolate the exogenous change of employment growth in manufacturing. For every hundred new manufacturing jobs, we find that 34 additional jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. We also show that the effect is heterogeneous along a number of dimensions. More specifically, one new job in high-technology manufacturing creates more jobs in the non-tradable sector while low-technology manufacturing employment growth has no significant multiplier effect. Among the non-tradable industries, the multiplier is the largest for wholesale, retail, and catering. Finally, the effect is also geographically heterogeneous, with the multiplier being greater for inland regions.     

Politics of free trade areas: tariffs versus quotas

In this paper we compare and contrast the political viability of bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) Agreements in the presence of tariffs and quotas. Assuming that the government maximizes a weighted sum of welfare and producer profits, we show that the political viability of FTAs varies according to whether trade restrictions take the form of tariffs or quotas. A key result is that whereas an FTA is unambiguously rejected by one of the countries under a tariff, it may be endorsed by both trading partners under a voluntary export quota or import quota that provides equal protection as the tariff.     

States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start

In this paper, an index of the depth of experience with state-level institutions, or state antiquity, is derived for a large set of countries. We show that state antiquity is significantly correlated with measures of political stability and institutional quality, with income per capita, and with the rate of economic growth between 1960 and 1995. State antiquity contributes significantly to the explanation of differences in growth rates, explaining half of the differences in growth rates between countries like China and Mauritania, which are located at the two ends of the spectrum. It is also a good instrument for social infrastructure, which explains cross-country differences in worker productivity.     

Impact of the Affordable Care Act on diabetes diagnoses in the United States: A county‐level analysis

Our research examines whether there is a causal effect between expanding health insurance and diabetes incidence. Comprehensive county‐level data from the United States is used to study the effect of Medicaid expansion on diabetes rates. The analysis is based on cross‐county variation according to Affordable Care Act health care reforms, along with county share‐eligibility variation. Difference‐in‐difference and triple‐difference statistical regression specifications are employed to control for confounding variables. The results suggest a slight negative relationship between expanding health insurance and diabetes diagnoses.     

Do attitudes toward risk taking affect entrepreneurship? Evidence from second-generation Americans

Journal of Economic Growth - This paper empirically investigates the impact of willingness to take risks on entrepreneurship. We use a quarter century of data on second-generation Americans from...     

Does foreign direct investment promote growth? Exploring the role of financial markets on linkages

Do multinational companies generate positive externalities for the host country? The evidence so far is mixed varying from beneficial to detrimental effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth, with many studies that find no effect. In order to provide an explanation for this empirical ambiguity, we formalize a mechanism that emphasizes the role of local financial markets in enabling FDI to promote growth through backward linkages. Using realistic parameter values, we quantify the response of growth to FDI and show that an increase in the share of FDI leads to higher additional growth in financially developed economies relative to financially under-developed ones.     

Learning from Project Failure: Globalization Lessons for an MNC

We study a multinational corporation's (MNC) failure in implementing a firm‐wide information technology system (ITS) project. To counter heightened competitive pressures, the MNC sought to improve its supply chain responsiveness by implementing the ITS project. However, since the headquarters (HQ) personnel lacked nuanced understanding of the micro issues in the subsidiaries, their design efforts turned out to be inadequate. Organizational practices that restrict member behavior to recipes from past knowledge served to amplify the problem—by disfavoring cooperation. Our study suggests a need to rethink the notion of the HQ as the design place. Further, there is a case for subsidiary personnel being afforded a greater say in design of changes to their work processes, given their higher exposure to process variety. This may offset the HQ‐subsidiary power imbalance noted in prior literature. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

Social Services and The GATS: Key Issues and Concerns

Concerns have been voiced about liberalizing social service such as health and education under the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and how this may undermine national sovereignty and autonomy in social policy making. This paper indicates that these concerns mainly stem from misunderstandings and lack of information about the GATS. It tries to dispel unwarranted fears by highlighting the GATS framework and commitment structure and explaining how countries can retain their autonomy on policies concerning public services, under the GATS. The paper also points out certain problem areas that are due to ambiguities and weaknesses in the GATS framework. It suggests the need to strengthen the GATS framework and address these problems in the ongoing GATS 2000 negotiations.