The Pricing Kernel Puzzle: A Real Phenomenon or a Statistical Artifact?

A large literature finds evidence that the pricing kernels estimated from option prices and historical returns are not monotonically decreasing in market returns. We show that the inevitable coalescence of contingencies, especially in the left‐tail, associated with estimating a distribution function may give rise to a nonmonotonic empirical pricing kernel even if the actual pricing kernel is monotonic. Hence, the observed nonmonotonicity of pricing kernels may be a statistical artifact rather than a real phenomenon. We argue that empirical work should explicitly correct for this effect by widening the option pricing bounds associated with monotonic pricing kernels.     

Capital account flows,consumption ratios and the middle‐income trap

The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950–2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle‐income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.     

Measuring health expenditures and outcomes in saarc region: health is a luxury?

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between health care expenditures (HCE), economic growth and health outcomes (i.e., life expectancy (LE), infant mortality and the share of elderly people) for a panel of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka; over the period of 1995–2010. The developed panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between health expenditures, economic growth and health outcomes in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that both, LE and share of elderly people in population have a negative relationship related to the HCEs which signifies that HCEs are luxury goods in SAARC countries. The burden of aging population can be lowered by provision of quality health services and utilization of their experience and knowledge in dynamics of economic development forecasting. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship found between infant mortality rate (IMR) and HCEs which implies that HCEs do not provide sufficient benefits to reduce infant mortality. Similarly, HCEs are not enough in generating GDP, lowering IMR and increasing LE in SAARC region. The implementation of appropriate tax reform, stable food prices and trade promotion for low transaction cost medical equipment is required for the SAARC region.     

Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan

This paper investigates the effectiveness of investment incentives and corporate income taxes in influencing production and investment decisions in the Pakistani wearing apparel and leather products industries. Three tax instruments are considered: the corporate income tax (CIT), the investment tax credit (ITC), and the capital cost allowance (CCA).The results show that since there are significant capital adjustment costs, it is important to distinguish between the short, intermediate, and long-run effects associated with the tax instruments. Production decisions are relatively more responsive to changes in the ITC rate compared to changes in either CCA or CIT rates in each run. However, only in the long run for the apparel industry are the ITC and CCA rates cost effective in stimulating investment. The CIT is never cost effective. Thus targeted instruments outperform the general CIT instrument. In addition, although the incentive to invest is enhanced, there is little effect on output. Therefore, tax incentives essentially make production techniques more capital intensive.     

Tree‐Based Intercropping in Southern Ontario,Canada

Tree‐based intercropping (TBI) integrates tree production within annual grain cropping. The system is widely used in tropical regions, but is not common in temperate regions. This study evaluates the annualized return from TBI systems in southern Ontario, Canada against annual grain crop production. The TBI systems include hybrid poplar, Norway spruce, and red oak. The annualized return for all TBI systems is less than for annual cropping using the base prices; however, when tree prices are high and grain prices low the hybrid poplar TBI system has a higher return than annual cropping. Grants for planting trees, technologies to reduce the cost of establishing and maintaining trees, and improving the returns from tree production will be required for producers in temperate regions to adopt TBI systems. Un système de cultures intercalaires (SCI) intègre la production d’arbres dans la culture annuelle de céréales. Ce système est largement utilisé dans les régions tropicales, mais peu courant dans les régions tempérées. La présente étude évalue le rendement annualisé des SCI dans le sud de l’Ontario, au Canada, par rapport à celui de la production annuelle de céréales. Les SCI intègrent le peuplier hybride, l’épinette de Norvège et le chêne rouge. Le rendement annualisé des SCI est inférieur à celui des cultures annuelles si l’on utilise les prix de référence. Toutefois, lorsque les prix des arbres sont élevés et que les prix des céréales sont faibles, le SCI qui intègre le peuplier hybride obtient un rendement supérieur à celui des cultures annuelles. Pour que les agriculteurs des régions tempérées adoptent les SCI, il faudra offrir des subventions à la plantation d’arbres, offrir des technologies qui permettront de réduire les coûts de plantation et d’entretien des arbres et améliorer les rendements/revenus de la production d’arbres.     

Variable labour supply, specialisation-based external economies, and capital inflow

This paper examines the impact of exogenous capital inflow on prices, production, labour supply, and welfare in the presence of specialisation-based externalities. The paper utilises a simple model of an economy that produces one-final good by means of capital, labour, and a large number of varieties of an intermediate good. The intermediate good is produced by means of capital and labour. The supply of capital is exogenous but the supply of labour is endogenous. The presence of internal economies of scale in the intermediate good industry gives rise to specialisation-based external economies in the production of the final good. Perfect competition prevails in the final good industry whereas the intermediate good industry operates under Chamberlinian monopolistic competition. It is shown that exogenous capital inflow decreases labour supply and increases welfare only if the elasticity of substitution between leisure and the final good is equal to or less than unity. The paper also shows that, if trade opens up between two otherwise similar economies, a capital rich country would be a net importer of varieties of the intermediate good.     

Labour mobility and wage inequality in the presence of endogenous foreign investment

This paper examines the impact of labour mobility and increased competition on skilled–unskilled wage inequality and foreign investment. Unlike the existing literature this paper considers a model where foreign investment is endogenously determined. The paper shows that in the shortrun, inflow of either skilled or unskilled labour has no effect on wage inequality but increased competition increases wage inequality. Inflow of either type of labour increases foreign investment but the impact of increased competition on foreign investment cannot be unambiguously determined. Inflow of skilled labour increases wage inequality in the longrun and its effect on foreign investment is positive. Increased competition in the longrun increases wage inequality, foreign investment and welfare.