Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment

Heuristics have long been associated with problems of bias and framing error, often on the basis of simulation and laboratory studies. In this field study of a high‐stakes strategic decision, we explore an alternative view that heuristics may serve as powerful cognitive tools that enable, rather than limit, decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. We examine the cognitive efforts of senior decision makers of an inexperienced multinational, as they assessed a potential acquisition in a politically hazardous African country. They applied a diversity of heuristics, some with clear building block rules, to build small world representations of this very uncertain strategic context. More expert individuals drew on experiential learning to build richer representations of the political hazard environment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nominal wage rigidity prior to compulsory arbitration: evidence from the Victorian Railways, 1902�C1921

Studies across a wide range of countries have shown that relatively few workers have received year-to-year wage cuts since the Second World War. However, there is very little micro-level evidence from earlier years, when lower inflation rates and a less regulated labour market may have led to stronger downwards pressure on wages. This paper examines wage adjustment at the Victorian Railways, Australia, between 1902 and 1921. It is shown that, despite strong downwards pressure on wages, nominal wages were rigid downwards and a high proportion of triennial wage changes were exactly zero. Even for workers with very long tenure and in years when the national price level declined, wage cuts were rare. We also show that the characteristics of workers whose wages were unchanged were very similar to those receiving wage cuts. Finally, we show that unlike the wages of incumbent staff, entry wages for new junior staff frequently declined from year to year.     

Work and Wages at a Melbourne Factory,the Guest Biscuit Works 1870–1921

The story of wages in nineteenth‐ and early twentieth‐century Australia has largely been told through official published statistics and the experiences of skilled artisans and construction labourers. Utilising wage book data from an early successful manufacturing plant – a biscuit factory – we reveal the earning histories of several neglected groups of Australian workers. We specifically investigate the effects of the 1890s depression, the introduction of a wages board, and shifting demographics on the wages of unskilled factory hands, women, juvenile workers, and commercial clerks. We demonstrate that typical Australian wage series studies have misinterpreted the impact of these phenomena.     

INTERNAL LABOUR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM TWO LARGE AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYERS

This paper examines internal labour markets in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century using personnel records from the Union Bank of Australia and the Victorian Railways. Both employers hired young workers and offered them the possibility of very-long-term employment. Salaries were determined by impersonal rules, such as being attached to tenure and to position. Workers rarely received nominal pay cuts. This approach to human resources was designed to retain and motivate workers. We show that all of the classic features of internal labour markets used to describe American firms in the 1970s were present dating back to the Victorian period.