The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey

This paper indicates that Turkish exports are subject to structural changes as Turkey integrates into global production networks. Integration, which leads vertical specialization in production and changes in the commodity composition of Turkish exports in favor of non-traditional commodities, paces up during economic reform periods. As the export shares of non-traditional commodities, which have higher import and income sensitivity but lower real exchange rate elasticity, increases, coefficients of the aggregate export function change accordingly. Nevertheless, high import and income elasticity of exports imply that the global growth pattern plays a significant role in determining exports of Turkey.     

CONSUMPTION (IN)EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT

Consumption may be inefficient when a household cannot choose the optimal bundle of goods at a minimum cost. After discussing alternative approaches, this paper proposes the use of money metric indirect utility function motivated by Feenstra and Varian in measuring consumption inefficiency. Then, Bamoul–Tobin transactions demand for money model is extended to show how household ability to manage its income, expenditure and financial accounts may affect consumption inefficiency. Results of the stochastic cost frontier approach, which is employed in estimation and the prediction of the European Union household consumption inefficiency, suggest that household expenditure performance is partly explained by the changes in the consumption efficiency and the efficiency is not independent of financial account management.     

How do firms adjust their prices in Turkey? Micro-level evidence

This article investigates the pricing behaviour of Turkish firms over the period 1988–2006 on the basis of firm-level micro data. The duration of prices is found to be 3.9 months on average. There is no clear heterogeneity across main groupings in the frequency of price changes, but more dependence on imported goods reduces price stickiness. Price decreases are less frequent than price increases, indicating downward rigidity in prices. There is evidence in favour of both time and state-dependent price setting behaviours. Further, there is a low degree of synchronization of price changes across firms, whereas price increases tend to be more synchronized than price decreases. Ordered probit models show that price adjustments depend on the type of the shock: the pass-through of a change in the cost is faster than changing demand. Besides, estimated probabilities of price adjustments with 5-years rolling windows reveal that inflation targeting has succeeded in bringing down the probability of price increases, whereas downward price rigidity has not weakened yet.     

Sectoral exports dynamics of Turkey: a panel co-integration analysis

This paper analyzes the role of unit labor costs and individual cost components in determining sectoral export dynamics and the change in the impact of these costs after the sequence of structural reforms in Turkey as of 2001. It employs a multivariate panel co-integration technique across 17 Turkish manufacturing sectors at different time periods. Results suggest that average elasticity changes not only between the time periods but also across the sectors. Cross-sectional elasticity differences are mostly attributable to the sectoral competitiveness and factor intensities.