International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

Specialisation,localisation, and trade value in the wake of cross-border production sharing. The Central Eastern European Countries' case

We focus on five among the sectors in which most of the CEECs’ trade in middle products with EU-15 is concentrated. Over the second half of the 1990s, we observe remarkable changes in both production and trade specialization as well as a significant relocation of industries within CEECs. Using jointly trade and production data we outline co-movements in the adjustment of specialisation patterns. We also show that the redistribution of activities at the regional level reflects the relocation of industries at the global level. Finally, we try to detect the scope of fragmentation of production characterizing each industry and the ways in which CEECs are moving along the “internationally sliced-up value chain”. (JEL: F10, F14, F15)     

Ethical Differentiation and Consumption in an Incentivized Market Experiment

In surveys consumers express preferences for ethical goods. Some authors claim, however, that survey responses do not translate into actual costly purchase behavior. To study if ethical consumption and differentiation occur in an incentive-compatible setting, this paper implements a design of an incentivized market experiment, which has been studied in the context of homogenous goods and both theoretically and experimentally engenders a dynamic of price decrease. This experiment establishes that ethical differentiation can be an effective strategy for sellers with ethically motivated buyers; and, although there is an ethical price premium, it accrues to the charity rather than to the seller.     

Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.     

Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.     

Paths of evolution for the Chinese migrant entrepreneurship: a multiple case analysis in Italy

Chinese diaspora is one of the most important areas in the field of immigrant entrepreneurship and the Chinese case is, for absolute numbers, entrepreneurship rates and scientific attention, one of the most significant phenomena in the world and in Italy. While much of the literature on the topic focuses on ethnic networks and social ties, there is a lack of studies that acknowledge the role of business networks in the later growth of migrant entrepreneurship, when the importance of social ties within the ethnic community diminishes. This paper tries to answer the following research question: Which is the role of ethnic networks and business networks in the path of evolution of Chinese migrant entrepreneurship? Thus, the paper analyses the structure and characteristics of ethnic networks and business networks and the role of each in the growth and evolution of Chinese migrant entrepreneurship. Our research considers business networks as the main focus of analysis that may replace social ties in consolidating insidership in new business settings and in finding new opportunities. A qualitative methodology is adopted, namely a multiple case study. Five cases of individual Chinese companies settled in a specific area are presented, for which the networks in which they are involved are traced and analysed. The case analysis shows that in the evolution of Chinese migrant entrepreneurship, ethnic networks are very important in the early phases of the business, but the role of cross-cultural business networks becomes relevant for further development. Implications—managerial and for policy makers—are highlighted and discussed.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

The Italian airport industry in transition: a performance analysis

This paper analyzes the impacts of Italian government actions on the efficiency of 36 airports between 2001 and 2003. The changes have included privatization, enlargement of the services provided directly by airport management companies, through the modification of the concession agreements, and the creation of two hubs. The analysis, using the consolidated two-stage data envelopment analysis with bootstrapping, indicates that airports with a majority public holding are on average more efficient and the presence of two hubs is source of inefficiency.