Constructing Multi‐Country Rational Expectations Models

This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach to construct a multi‐country rational expectations (RE) model and illustrates them with a new Keynesian model for 33 countries estimated with quarterly data over the period 1980–2011. The issues considered are: the measurement of steady states; the determination of exchange rates and the specification of the short‐run country‐specific models; the identification and estimation of the model subject to the theoretical constraints required for a determinate rational expectations solution; the solution of a large RE model; the structure and estimation of the covariance matrix and the simulation of shocks. The model used as an illustration shows that global demand and supply shocks are the most important drivers of output, inflation and interest rates in the long run. By contrast, monetary or exchange rate shocks have only a short‐run impact in the evolution of the world economy. The article also shows the importance of international connections, directly as well as indirectly through spillover effects. Overall, ignoring global inter‐connections as country‐specific models do, could give rise to misleading conclusions.     

New Institutional Economics' contribution to strategic groups analysis

Rather than consider the two broad strands of strategic group research—performance‐based and behavior‐based studies—as competing approaches, we argue that they relate to complementary levels of analysis. We present a four‐level framework for analyzing structures within industries drawn from New Institutional Economics (NIE) which covers different approaches to strategic group formation from institutional isomorphism and embeddedness through to the firm‐level effects of certain resource deployments. We apply an institutional approach to a case study of the Australian banking industry and supplement this with a quantitative approach based around key strategic variables. This analysis suggests that distinct groups have emerged due to the institutional environment and the different regulatory environments experienced by various banks in the industry. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Income and distance elasticities of values of travel time savings: New Swiss results

This paper presents the findings of a study looking into the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in Switzerland, across modes as well as across purpose groups. The study makes several departures from the usual practice in VTTS studies, with the main one being a direct representation of the income and distance elasticity of the VTTS measures. Here, important gains in model performance and significantly different results are obtained through this approach. Additionally, the analysis shows that the estimation of robust coefficients for congested car travel time is hampered by the low share of congested time in the overall travel time, and the use of an additional rate-of-congestion coefficient, in addition to a generic car travel time coefficient, is preferable. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that the population mean of the indicators calculated is quite different from the sample means and presents methods to calculate those, along with the associated variances. These variances are of great interest as they allow the generation of confidence intervals, which can be extremely useful in cost-benefit analyses.     

Asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay estimates in discrete choice models

Individuals when faced with choices amongst a number of alternatives often adopt a variety of processing rules, ranging from simple linear to complex non-linear treatment of each attribute defining the offer of each alternative. In this paper we investigate the presence of asymmetry in preferences to test for reference effects and differential willingness to pay according to whether we are valuing gains or losses. The findings offer clear evidence of an asymmetrical response to increases and decreases in attributes when compared to the corresponding values for a reference alternative, where the degree of asymmetry varies across attributes and population segments.     

An analysis of trends in air travel behaviour using four related SP datasets collected between 2000 and 2005

A growing number of studies of air travel behaviour make use of data collected through stated choice surveys. However, while these studies all produce useful results in their own right, they are limited to the context of each specific study. We address this issue by using data from four related surveys carried out between 2000 and 2005. The analysis shows a level of consistency in some of the sensitivities, but also highlights trends such as reduced willingness-to-pay measures, potentially influenced by the growing number of low cost flight options, lack of service differentiation among the carriers, and increased use of online ticketing, which has led to greater fare transparency.     

Evidence of passenger preferences for specific types of airports

Studies of air travel choice behaviour increasingly make use of data collected through stated choice surveys. Here, we put forward the hypothesis that when making their choices in such surveys, respondents may complement the information presented to them by additional attributes. Specifically, we look at characteristics linked to airport size and breadth of service, as well as the proximity to a respondent's home. Our findings in a discrete choice analysis suggest that, all else being equal, respondents prefer larger to smaller airports while having a preference for the airport closest to their home. This could suggest that even though respondents associate a higher likelihood of delay and other inconveniences with larger airports, there is a perception that if things go wrong (e.g. flight cancellations), the backup options at larger airports (e.g. replacement aircraft) are superior to those at small or regional ones.     

Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values

We construct asset markets that are similar to those studied by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (Econometrica. 56, 1119–1151) in which bubbles and crashes tended to occur. The main difference between the markets studied here and those studied by Smith et al. is that in the markets studied here, the fundamental value of the asset is constant over the entire life of the asset. In four of the eight sessions reported here, we observe bubbles, which are prices considerably higher than fundamental values. The data suggest that the frequent payment of dividends is a major cause of bubble formation. The property that the fundamental value remains constant over the course of the trading horizon is not sufficient to eliminate the possibility of a bubble.     

The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

This article aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. Based on a Global VAR modeling approach, this article shows first that countries with a large trade exposure with the U.S. economy have a relatively larger sensitivity to U.S. developments. However, even for countries that do not trade so much with the U.S., they are largely influenced by its dominance through other partners’ trade. Moreover, while no clear trend seems to emerge, it seems that the role of the U.S. in the global economy has changed over time. Overall, for most countries—the latest recession excluded—a change in U.S. GDP had weaker impacts—though more persistent—for most recent periods. The latest recession, however, led to some renewed increase in the sensitivity of the economies to U.S. developments.