Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia*

Two key relationships which feature prominently through out modern international monetary theory are: (i) covered interest parity and(ii) speculative efficiency of the foreign exchange market, i.e., the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the spot rate. This paper presents some empirical evidence for these two hypotheses using Australian data over the period September 1974 to December 1981 during which the Australian dollar was essentially floating. Both quarterly and overlapping monthly data are used. The results obtained generally provide some support for the two hypotheses.     

Expanding Exports and the Structure of the Domestic Economy: A Monetary Analysis*

This paper analyzes the dynamic adjustments of a small, open economy faced with the certain prospect of a future export (resources) boom. It is shown how the adjustment occurs in three phases. First, the initial expectation generates an immediate (discrete) appreciation of the exchange rate. Secondly, prior to the export boom, the exchange rate continues to appreciate gradually, while a dissimulation of bond holdings by domestic residents occurs, After the boom, the exchange rate gradually appreciates further while the balance of trade moves into surplus and domestic residents begin to accumulate bond holdings. These adjustments are rejected in the movement of the relative price of traded to non-traded goods and the implications of this for the structural adjustment of domestic industry are discussed.     

The Dynamics of Growth and Income Inequality under Progressive Taxation

This paper develops an endogenous growth model having a progressive income tax structure in which heterogeneous agents, who differ in terms of their rates of time preference, supply labor elastically. We analyze the dynamic adjustment to an increase in progressivity and show that the economy will converge to an equilibrium growth path with nondegenerate distributions of both income and wealth. The role of the endogeneity of labor supply is emphasized and shown to have a major impact on the nature of the transitional path, as a result of the impact of the progressive tax on agents’ work incentives. Our theoretical analysis is supplemented with, and supported by, numerical simulations, which generally match the empirical evidence rather closely. We also show that the responses of the different income groups contrast sharply from one another so that focusing on the economy‐wide average provides an incomplete picture.     

Taxation and Income Distribution Dynamics in a Neoclassical Growth Model

We examine how changes in tax policies affect the dynamics of the distributions of wealth and income in a Ramsey model in which agents differ in their initial capital endowments. The endogeneity of the labor supply plays a crucial role, as tax changes that affect hours of work will affect the distribution of wealth and income, reinforcing or offsetting the direct redistributive impact of taxes. We consider different ways of financing government expenditure and find that policies that reduce the labor supply are associated with lower output but also with a more equal distribution of after‐tax income. We illustrate these effects by examining the impact of recent tax changes observed in the United States and in European economies.     

Intergenerational Allocation of Government Expenditures: Externalities and Optimal Taxation

This paper studies optimal capital and labor income taxes when the benefits of public goods are age‐dependent. Provided the government can impose a consumption tax, it can attain the first‐best resource allocation. This involves the uniform taxation of the cohorts' labor income and a zero capital income tax. With no consumption tax and optimally chosen government spending, labor income should be taxed nonuniformly across cohorts and the capital income tax should be nonzero. Deviations of the public goods from their respective optima create distortions. These affect the labor supply decisions of both cohorts and capital accumulation, providing a further reason to tax (or subsidize) capital income.     

FISCAL POLICY, ADJUSTMENT COSTS, AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH

This paper develops a one-sector endogenous growth model inwhich investment incurs convex adjustment costs. Conditionsfor the existence of a balanced growth path are discussed. Fiscalissues are analyzed in a circumstance in which the governmentuses tax revenues to finance public expenditures that impacton both the productivity of the existing capital stock, andadjustments costs. The effect of these costs on the equilibriumgrowth rate and on the effectiveness of fiscal policy is discussed.Optimal fiscal policy is derived and the role of adjustmentcosts and congestion in determining the trade-off between differenttaxes is considered.