Pricing options using implied trees: Evidence from FTSE‐100 options

Previously, few, if any, comparative tests of performance of Jackwerth's ( 1997 ) generalized binomial tree (GBT) and Derman and Kani ( 1994 ) implied volatility tree (IVT) models were done. In this paper, we propose five different weight functions in GBT and test them empirically compared to both the Black‐Scholes model and IVT. We use the daily settlement prices of FTSE‐100 index options from January to November 1999. With both American and European options traded on the FTSE‐100 index, we construct both GBT and IVT from European options and examine their performance in both the hedging of European option and the pricing of its American counterpart. IVT is found to produce least hedging errors and best results for American call options with earlier maturity than the maturity span of the implied trees. GBT appears to produce better results for American ATM put pricing for any maturity, and better in‐sample fit for options with maturity equal to the maturity span of the implied trees. Deltas calculated from IVT are consistently lower (higher) than Black‐Scholes deltas for both European and American calls (puts) in absolute term. The reverse holds true for GBT deltas. These empirical findings about the relative performance of GBT, IVT, and Standard Black‐Scholes models are important to practitioners as they indicate that different methods should be used for different applications, and some cautions should be exercised. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:601–626, 2002     

Book Reviews

Anthony J. Whitten, Sengli J. Damanik, Jazanul Anwar and Nazaruddin Hisyam, The Ecology of Sumatra, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, Second Edition, 1987, pp. 583 + xx.

Christine Drake, National Integration in Indonesia: Patterns and Policies, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1989, pp. 354 + xvi. Cloth: US$ 35.00.

Geoffrey B. Hainsworth (ed.), Environmental Linkages, Halifax: School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 1985, pp. 97.

R. Repetto et al., Wasting Assets: Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts, Washington DC: World Resources Institute, June 1989, pp. 69 + vi. Paper: US$10.00.

William E. James, Seiji Naya and Gerald M. Meier, Asian Development: Economic Success and Policy Lessons, Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1989, pp. 281 + Xviii.

Robert B. Dickie and Thomas A. Layman, Foreign Investment and Government Policy in the Third World: Forging Common Interests in Indonesia and Beyond, London: MacMillan, 1988, pp. 240 + xxxi. £35.

Alan Gelb and Associates, Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? New York: Oxford University Press, for the World Bank, 1988, pp. 357 + x. $32.50.

Benjamin Higgins, The Road Less Travelled: A Development Economist's Quest, History of Development Studies 2, Canberra: National Centre For Development Studies, the Australian National University, pp. 204 + x. Paper: A$20.00

BRIEFLY NOTED: Sarwar Hobohm, Indonesia to 1993: Breakthrough in the Balance, London: Economist Intelligence Unit, Special Report no. 2012, 1989, pp. 91, £190 for this Plus the Companion Report, Indonesia to 1991: Can Momentum be Regained?

Geoffrey Hainsworth and Hasan Poerbo (eds), Local Resource Management: Towards Sustainable Development, Halifax: School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 1987, pp. 69 + xii.

H.W. Dick, Industri Pelayaran Indonesia: Kompetisi dan Regulasi, Jakarta: LP3ES, 1990, 306 + xxv.     

Book Reviews

M. Arsjad Anwar, Thee Kian Wie, Iwan Jaya Azis, Pemikiran, Pdaksanaan, dan Perintisan Pembangunan Ekonomi[Concepts, Implementation, and Pioneering in Economic Development], Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia and PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama, Jakarta, 1992, pp. xx + 700.

Adam Schwarz, A Nation in Waiting: Indonesia in the 1990s, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, and Westview, Boulder, 1994, pp. 370. Paper: A$24.95.

East Asia Analytical Unit, Expanding Horizons: Australia and Indonesia into the 22st Century,Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, 1994, pp. xviii + 346. A$34.95.

Sjahrir, Pikiran Politik[Political Ideas], LP3ES, Jakarta, 1994, pp. xiv + 191.

Sjahrir, Persoalan Ekonomi Indonesia: Moneter, Perkreditan dan Nenca Pembayaran[Problems of the Indonesian Economy: Money, Credit and the Balance of Payments], Pustaka Sinar Harapan, Jakarta, 1995, pp. xv + 205.

Sjahrir, Analisis Bursa Efek[Analysis of the Stock Exchange], PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama, Jakarta, 1995, pp. xiv + 169.

Sjahrir, Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Perspektif Bisnis[The Indonesian Economy in a Business Perspective], PT Jurnalindo Aksara Grafika, Jakarta, 1994, pp. xvi + 239.

Sjahrir, Kebijakan Negara Mengantisipasi Masa Depan[National Policy: Anticipating the Future], Yayasan Obor Indonesia, Jakarta, 1994, pp. xv + 251.

Sjahrir, Formasi Mikro-Makro Ekonomi Indonesia[Indonesia's Macro and Micro Economy], Penerbit Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 1995, pp. xii + 313

F.B.A. Bouman and Otto Hospes, Financial Landscapes Reconstructed: The Fine Art of Mapping Development,Westview, Boulder, 1994, pp. xi + 416. US$45.00

Robert Cribb (ed.), The Late Colonial State in Indonesia: Political and Economic foundations of the Netherlands Indies 1880–1942,Verhandelmgen van het Koninklijk Instituut voor Taal-, Land- en Volkenkunde 163, KITLV Press, Leiden, 1994, pp. xiii + 295.

Shinya Sugiyama and Milagros C. Guerrero (eds), International Commercial Rivalry in Southeast Asia in the Inierwar Period,Yale Southeast Asia Studies Monograph 39, Yale Center for International and Area Studies, New Haven, 1994, pp. ix + 222.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia. Volume 15: Prices (Non-Rice) 1814–1940,Royal Tropical Institute, Amsterdam, 1994, pp. 175. Paper: Dfl. 48.00.     

Special economic zones and growth in China and India: an empirical investigation

This paper investigates the role of special economic zones (SEZs) in liberalizing the Chinese and Indian economies and their impact on economic growth. The policy change to a more liberalized economy is identified using SEZ variables as instrumental variables. The results indicate that export and FDI growth have positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in these countries. The presence of SEZs increases regional growth but increasing the number of SEZs has negligible effect on growth. The key to faster economic growth appears to be a greater pace of liberalization.     

Indifference,indecision, and coin-flipping

This article operationalizes a non-empty relation as implied if strict preference and indifference jointly do not completely order the choice set. Specifically, indecision is operationalized as a positive preference for delegating choice to a least predictable device.     

The Indonesian economic crisis and the long road to recovery

This article provides a concise overview of the origins and impact of the 1997–1998 crisis on the Indonesian economy and the tardy process of recovery since. It is pessimistic about the current prospects for speedy recovery due to the inability of the politically weak governments, which succeeded the highly authoritarian Soeharto regime, to take the necessary steps needed to achieve full economic recovery. The article briefly compares this crisis with the economic crises that hit Indonesia during the early 1930s and mid-1960s, and points to similarities as well as differences.     

Convergence and catching up in ASEAN: a comparative analysis

The increasing diversity of average growth rates and income levels across countries has generated a large literature on testing the income convergence hypothesis. Most countries in South-East Asia, particularly the five founding ASEAN member countries (ASEAN-5), have experienced substantial economic growth, with the pace of growth having varied substantially across countries. Recent empirical studies have found evidence of several convergence clubs, in which per capita incomes have converged for selected groupings of countries and regions. This paper applies different time series tests of convergence to determine if there is a convergence club for ASEAN-5, as well as ASEAN-5 and the USA. The catching up hypothesis states that the lagging country, with low initial income and productivity levels, will tend to grow more rapidly by copying the technology of the leader country, without having to bear the associated costs of research and development. Given the important effects of technological change on growth, this paper also examines whether ASEAN-5 is catching up technologically with the USA.