What motivates a subprime borrower to default?

This paper uses a real options approach to analyse the exercise of the default option embedded in mortgages. In particular, it examines a subprime household who borrows at a premium, but hopes to refinance at prime rates if their house appreciates. We show how these optimal default decisions can be used to calculate probabilities of default – an important input for risk management and pricing purposes. Numerical examples are provided, calibrated to US data. In a low interest rate environment, the credit-upgrade potential may discourage subprime borrowers from defaulting. However, default probabilities are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and house prices. This provides a rational explanation for the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages among subprime borrowers, and the subsequent large numbers of defaults, when interest rates rose and house prices declined.     

Conjectures, firm characteristics, and market structure : An empirical assessment

This paper makes use of a unique data set to investigate how firms in the Vancouver, British Columbia retail-gasoline market view their rivals and how consumers in turn view these firms. Own- and rival-price elasticities of demand, conjectural variations, and Lerner indices are estimated for thirteen service stations in a submarket of Vancouver. These variables are then related to firm characteristics such as type of ownership, degree of horizontal and vertical integration, and type of service. In this way, systematic patterns in seller behavior and in buyer attitudes are revealed.     

The opportunity not taken: The occupational identity of entrepreneurs in contexts of poverty

Innovative entrepreneurship is an essential but often missing outcome of poverty alleviation efforts. This qualitative study set in rural Ghana explores the occupational identity of entrepreneurs, the institutions that shape it in isolated “island networks”, and how it influences entrepreneurs' practices and decisions. We find that the institutional forces of “collectivism” and “fatalism” feature prominently. Being an entrepreneur in such settings means being a mentor, market link, and community safety net, and the types of opportunities entrepreneurs pursue are largely seen as pre-destined and inherited rather than individually chosen. As a result, the pursuit of innovative opportunities may be significantly limited.     

A Pricing and Hedging Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches for American Index Options

This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance.     

Scoring an Own Goal? Ethical issues in the UK professional soccer business

It is only in recent years that soccer has become big business, and the ethical strains are beginning to show. What is the “product” and where do fans figure in the list of “stakeholders”? The writer is completing his MBA at London Business School, and is a lifelong football fan.     

Static profitability as a measure of deviations from the competitive norm

Recently, several industrial-organization economists have claimed that the rate of return on sales (II/S) is superior to the rate or return on assets (II/K) as a measure of monopoly power. This paper argues that there is no reason to prefer one index over the other. To make the point, an oligopoly model of optimizing agents is derived that yields II/K as a performance measure. The derivation leads to natural interpretations of the two indices and therefore to clarification of the circumstances under which each might be preferred.     

The Valuation of Equity Futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: 1920–1923

The futures price of an asset should depend on the spot price of that asset, the interest rate, cash flows during the contract term, the convenience yield, and storage costs. Despite many tests of the spot–future relation for commodities in historical periods, there have been no tests of this historical relation for equities. We price single‐stock equity futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between 1920 and 1923 and find that mispricing is considerably worse than in contemporary U.S. markets, after adjusting for (unavoidable) asynchronous data issues. The main cause of the mispricing is short‐sales constraints, rather than investor naivety. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

COLLECTION OF RELIABLE FARM LEVEL DATA IN LDC's

This paper analyses the difficulties involved in timely processing of farm level survey data in LDC's using a main-frame computer. It then discusses the potential role of micro-computers used in the field to speed up and improve the quality of data collection.     

Local search and the evolution of technological capabilities

The assumption that ‘local search’ constrains the direction of corporate R&D is central in evolutionary perspectives on technological change and competition. In this paper, we propose a network-analytic approach for identifying the evolution of firms' technological positions. The approach (1) permits graphical and quantitative assessments of the extent to which firms' search behavior is locally bounded, and (2) enables firms to be positioned and grouped according to the similarities in their innovative capabilities. The utility of the proposed framework is demonstrated by an analysis of strategic partnering and the evolution of the technological positions of the 10 largest Japanese semiconductor producers from 1982 to 1992.     

Fixed Come Hell or High Water? Selection and Prepayment of Fixed‐Rate Mortgages Outside the United States

We examine the decision to prepay a fixed‐rate mortgage in the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. These countries are characterized by having substantial fees which are associated with breaking a fixed‐rate mortgage. We develop a model which allows for fluctuations both in banks’ wholesale rates and credit spreads. We find that households can achieve economically significant benefits both from following an optimal prepayment strategy contingent on the break fee used by their bank and also by selection of fixed interest rate term and (where available) break fee structure.