Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macroimplications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades

Standard New Keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales. In this study, we ask whether this treatment is appropriate. We use Japanese scanner data covering the last two decades and find a negative correlation between the frequency of sales and hours worked. We then construct a model that takes households' decisions regarding their allocation of time for work, leisure, and bargain hunting into account. We show that the decline in hours worked explains the rise in the frequency of sales. The real effect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40% due to temporary sales, but monetary policy still matters.     

Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Regime Switches

A model of rational mortgage refinancing is developed where the drift and volatility of interest rate process switch between two regimes. Because of the possibility of a regime shift, the optimal refinancing policy is characterized by the different threshold of interest differential for each regime. Numerical simulation demonstrates that the optimal refinancing threshold in each regime can be smaller or larger than the threshold under single-regime models. Finally, we evaluate the predictions of the model, based on the estimated parameters for a two-regime model to capture the evolution of the mortgage rates in the US. Our model can produce both late and early refinancing, which is consistent with the observed refinancing behavior. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd.     

How an innovation is formed: A case study of Japanese word processors

An innovation is formed in the social system through the diffusion process, and artifacts that embody the innovation alter their aspects considerably. This study proposes an innovation-diffusion model on the assumption that an innovation interacts with a social system, which shows dynamic and self-organizing characteristics. That is, firstly, an innovation appears that overthrows the existing technological paradigm. Secondly, after the appearance of an innovation, engineers or relevant professionals witnessing the innovation conduct various kinds of trial and error to compete with each other. Thirdly, under passing through the turmoil period, the social system in which an innovation has been implemented becomes changing its structure. Fourthly, once an innovation has surpassed the irreversible phase, obtaining the dominant design, it becomes embedded into the social system. In order to verify the model, I refer to the diffusion process of the Japanese word processors into the Japanese society around 1980s. Following the result of this study, this paper points out that the diffusion theory should be reconsidered, especially about the meanings of the critical mass, the dichotomy of the innovator-imitator model, and so on. Besides, strategic planners or policy makers would do well to construct innovation strategies or technology policies to implement the innovation by affecting such factors as the internal and external influence factors and the population of the potential adopters.     

国有控股上市公司的控制权、金字塔式结构和侵占行为——来自中国股权分置改革的证据

文献认为,当上市公司的控制权和现金流出现分离时,会发生控股股东对上市公司的侵占,而这一分离会出现在二元股权或金字塔式的公司结构中。在中国,直到2005年实行股权分置改革之前,双类股和金字塔式的公司结构同时存在于上市公司。股权分置改革仅消除了二元股权结构,但金字塔式结构依然存在。通过对这一外生变化的研究,本文估计了控股股东利用金字塔式结构对上市公司进行侵占的规模。结果显示,控股权越大,现金流权越小,侵占的规模越大。同时,这种侵占在国有控股公司中更明显,在私人公司中并未出现。究其原因,虽然国有企业的现金流权高于私人企业,但国有公司的控股权比例也高于私人公司。股权分置改革削弱了控股股东的侵占能力,但分离仍然存在,而且依旧产生对小股东的侵占。结果显示,侵占的平均规模为总资产的7%～8%。如果实行一股一票原则,资产扩张会减少13%。