Freight transportation costs and the thickening of the US–Mexico border

Border regulatory requirements and administrative practices changed subsequent to the September 11, 2001 (9/11), terrorist attacks in the United States. Research in this study examines the manners in which transportation cost data for merchandise imports from Mexico behaved before and after 2001. Evidence is obtained that confirms results earlier tabulated for imports from Canada. Empirical results further indicate that, beyond freight cost changes, growth in the value of imports from Mexico was disrupted by events associated with the aftermath of 9/11.     

Yield spreads,currency movements,and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States

Prior research establishes that the spread between long- and short-term bond yields often provides valuable information for predicting business cycle downturns. This study examines the predictive capacity of the yield spread for the United States metropolitan economies situated along the border with Mexico. Because of the location of these urban economies and various economic ties linking them with twin cities across the border, the Mexico yield spread, and the real dollar/peso exchange rate are also employed as potential recession predictors. Results suggest that a flattening of the yield curve for either country tends to increase the probability of recessions in border economies. Furthermore, declines in the real value of the peso, which are typically associated with greater cross-border manufacturing activity, are found to reduce recession likelihoods in the metropolitan economies examined on the north side of the international boundary.     

Empirical evidence regarding electricity consumption and urban economic growth

Links between electricity consumption and economic growth are fairly well documented for national economies, but less so for urban economies. The analysis of such relationships at the sub-national level of aggregation can potentially offer a useful complement to national-level research. This study examines the electricity-growth nexus in El Paso, Texas, while also considering the roles of capital stocks and employment. Testing suggests the presence of cointegrating relationships and a vector error correction model is estimated. Granger causality tests reveal the absence of causality between electricity consumption and personal income, implying that energy conservation efforts will have a neutral effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the results indicate that causality runs from the capital stock and employment to both personal income and electricity consumption. This echoes previous research regarding the importance of accounting for capital and labour factors of production in studies of aggregate electricity utilization and economic performance. The methodology used in this analysis to develop a broad synthetic measure of the urban capital stock, including various categories of public infrastructure, can also be applied to other regions and urban economies.     

Public transportation demand in a border metropolitan economy

Empirical research for public transport demand has uncovered numerous interesting commonalities across metropolitan economies. This study examines the demand for municipal bus services over time in El Paso, Texas, USA. El Paso is one of the largest metropolitan economies in the USA located directly adjacent to an international boundary with another country. This study not only models the demand for municipal bus services as a function of traditional variables such as price, income and weather, but also includes regressors designed to measure the potential impacts of cross-border economic conditions on El Paso ridership. Results from a Linear Transfer Function (LTF) modelling approach indicate that rider volumes are affected by domestic as well as international economic conditions in this border metropolitan area.