An Empirical Model of Efficiency Analysis on Flood Prevention Investment in Japan

This paper aims to evaluate the comprehensive efficiency of flood disaster prevention investment from 1955 to 1999 by developing and applying an integrated evaluation model. Our analysis results have clarified some important issues currently being discussed in Japan. Firstly, the average values of normalized flood losses decreased greatly between the 1955-1961 period and the 1984-1999 period. Secondly, the ratio of human loss to total loss caused by floods in Japan may be less than 10%, based on the concept of the value of statistical life (VOSL) and values estimated from the risk-money tradeoff. The proportion of intangible effect to total loss increased from less than 10% before the 1970s to approximately 20% after that period. Finally, flood prevention investment in Japan effectively reduced losses caused by flooding before the 1960s; however, since the 1980s, investment has changed from an efficient mode to an inefficient mode, not only from the economic standpoint, but also from that of total flood loss saving.     

Characterizing belief-free review-strategy equilibrium payoffs under conditional independence

This paper proposes and studies a tractable subset of Nash equilibria, belief-free review-strategy equilibria, in repeated games with private monitoring. The payoff set of this class of equilibria is characterized in the limit as the discount factor converges to one for games where players observe statistically independent signals. As an application, we develop a simple sufficient condition for the existence of asymptotically efficient equilibria, and establish a folk theorem for N-player prisoner?s dilemma. All these results are robust to a perturbation of the signal distribution, and hence remain true even under almost-independent monitoring.     

Hyperbolic Discounting,Borrowing Aversion and Debt Holding

Analysis of an original Internet‐based survey reveals that debt holding is related to time discounting through: (i) present bias, measured by the degree of declining impatience in the generalized hyperbolic discount function; (ii) borrowing aversion, captured by a sign effect in that future losses are discounted at lower rates than future gains; and (iii) impatience, measured by the overall discount rate. Hyperbolic respondents are classified naïve if their answers reveal them to be time‐inconsistent procrastinators, and otherwise sophisticated. Naïve respondents with more steeply declining impatience are more likely to be debtors. The sign effect relates negatively to borrowing. Survey responses indicative of high or declining impatience are associated with credit card borrowing and other overborrowing indicators.     

The Political,Economic, and Social Aspects of Katrina

In this paper, we examine the resiliency of community recovery after a natural disaster. We argue that a resilient recovery requires robust economic/financial institutions, political/legal institutions, and social/cultural institutions. We explore how politically and privately created disaster preconditions and responses have contributed to or undermined institutional robustness in the context of the Gulf Coast's recovery after Hurricane Katrina. We find that where postdisaster resiliency has been observed, private-sector responses contributing to the health of these institutional arenas are largely responsible. Where postdisaster fragility and slowness has been observed, public-sector responses contributing to the frailty of these institutional arenas are largely the cause. In other words, we engage in a comparative institutional analysis of civil society, entrepreneurial commercial society, and government agencies and political actors in the wake of a natural disaster.     

The meaning of “social capital” as it relates to the market process

There is an unhelpful vagueness in the meaning of social capital. While this article does not provide a definitive interpretation of this important concept, after examining a representative sample of various usages—including the contributions of Becker, Coleman, Jacobs, and Putnam—it offers an interpretation of social capital, emphasizing the emergent character of norms and networks in public space, which is germane to the understanding of the entrepreneurially driven market process.     

Fiscal policy,wealth divergence,and lifetime utility

Using a two-country dynamic optimization model where the less patient country decumulates and the more patient one accumulates wealth, we analyze spillover effects of lump-sum and consumption taxes. A lump-sum tax on a country definitely harms the other country through a change in the rate of interest. A lump-sum tax on either country always improves the less patient country's asset position. A consumption tax has no spillover effect, although it is Pareto-inferior. Applying these results into a closed-country context with heterogeneous agents, we also discuss policy implications of a discriminatory tax.     

Economic Integration in East Asia: An International Input‐Output Analysis

To establish economic and monetary union (EMU) in East Asia, deepening regional integration through international trade is important. The economic interdependence (one of the important criteria for regional integration) study, using macro data does not reflect the indirect effects generated by interactions between different production sectors and different countries. We use the international input‐output (IIO) framework to study the economic interdependence at both macro and production sector levels. We refine the existing methods to reflect exogenous country effect and size effect of the economy. Our study suggests that establishing EMU in East Asia appears to be somewhat premature. However, we can be more optimistic for regional integration at the production sector level in East Asia when including Japan, which will create a basis for EMU in the region.     

LUXURY AND WEALTH*

I develop a dynamic theory of luxury consumption, particularly emphasizing the causal effect that pursuit of luxury goods has on wealth accumulation. A quasi‐luxury is defined as a good whose marginal rate of substitution is increasing in a utility index. Under certain conditions, it is indeed a luxury good. When current wealth holding falls short of (exceeds) long‐run needs, luxury consumption is postponed more (less) easily than necessity consumption, due to a lower (higher) time preference for luxury and/or a higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution thereof. Preferences for quasi‐luxuries lead to a higher steady‐state value of wealth or capital.

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