THE BURDEN OF HIV/AIDS IN THE PUBLIC HEALTHCARE SYSTEM

Given current lack of routine data, assessing the burden of HIV/AIDS on the public healthcare system is complex. This research aimed to collect a wide range of data that could be used to estimate this burden and the costs of meeting it. Data collection was undertaken by research doctors who were employed in a wide spectrum of facilities to compile information on patients' HIV-status, retrospective utilisation of services and unit costs of care. Key results indicated that the percentage of expenditure on HIV-related care was 26% across all facilities. HIV-positive patients had higher utilisation of services compared to other patient groups; the annual cost per patient was estimated to be R4,813 (2007/08 prices). Results should be interpreted in the light of the underlying population need and context-specific access barriers.     

HEALTH CARE PROVIDER CHOICE

In order to achieve an ‘optimal health system’, health policies should not only be focused on the supply of health care, but also take cognisance of the demand for health care. Studies of health care demand in South Africa are scarce due to considerable data limitations. This analysis attempts to fill this gap by combining two data sets (specifically, the GHS 2004 and IES/LFS 2000) in order to be able to utilize the wealth of information regarding health care utilization in the General Household Survey. The aim is to inform and encourage debate on how to incorporate demand side considerations in order to arrive at improved public health care in South Africa.     

MODELLING SOUTH AFRICAN CURRENCY CRISES AS STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE VOLATILITY OF THE RAND

This study tests the theory that currency crises are associated with sudden large changes in the structure of foreign exchange market volatility. Due to increases in market uncertainty, crisis periods exhibit abnormally high levels of volatility. By studying short-term changes in volatility dynamics, it is possible to identify the start and end dates of crisis periods with a high degree of precision. We use the iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm to detect multiple shifts in the volatility of rand returns between January 1994 and March 2009. Dummy variables controlling for the detected shifts in variance are incorporated in a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling framework. The analysis indicates that previously identified crisis periods in the rand coincide with significant structural changes in market volatility.     

THE EQUITY PREMIUM AND RISK-FREE RATE PUZZLES IN A TURBULENT ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM 105 YEARS OF DATA FROM SOUTH AFRICA

This paper presents a detailed empirical examination of the South African equity premium, and a quantitative theoretic exercise to test the canonical inter-temporal consumption-based asset-pricing model under power utility. Over the long run, the South African stock market produced average returns six to eight percentage points above bonds and cash, and at the 20-year horizon, an investor would not have experienced a single negative realised equity premium over the entire 105-year period we examine. Yet the maximum equity premium rationalised by the consumption-based model is 0.4%. The canonical macro-financial model closely matches the average risk-free rate, using realistic parameters for the coefficient of risk aversion and a positive rate of time preference.