WORLD CUP 2010: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY CHALLENGES INFORMED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY 2006

The paper provides an ex post analysis of the financial burden and economic benefits of the World Cup (WC) in Germany 2006. Based on the usual cost-benefit measures, the experience of WC 2006 appears to be in line with existing empirical research on large sporting events and sports stadiums, which have rarely identified significant net economic benefits. The lessons from Germany 2006 provide a context for analyzing the potential risks and benefits for South Africa (SA), the WC hosts in 2010. For SA, a careful analysis might be even more urgent to assure the sustainability of investment in stadiums. The paper also argues that the "feel-good" and public image effects of sports events should no longer be neglected in cost-benefit studies of large sporting events, even though these effects have the character of experience goods, and their value are thus likely to be underestimated ex ante. ( JEL L83, R53, R58)     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.     

A macro-framework for successful development banks

The large-scale failures of development banks in the 1970s and 1980s meant that they all but disappeared from the development agenda. However, there are still a large number of development banks worldwide that operate with various degrees of success. Some governments are also looking to re-establish such banks to address the shortage of finance for higher-risk market segments. To avoid a repeat of the earlier failures, government policy needs to be informed by an objective framework for the success of these banks. This article, based on economic theory and informed by case studies, outlines such a framework. It addresses the following six dimensions of these banks: enabling environment, mandate, regulation and supervision, governance and management, financial sustainability and performance assessment. Development banking remains a risky initiative but, managed appropriately, and using this framework, it can help achieve development objectives.     

The informal sector in selected residential areas of Port Elizabeth

The Employment Research Unit undertook three surveys on the informal sector during 1985 and 1986, two among Blacks and one among Coloureds. The aim of the surveys was to establish the composition and nature of the sector in the Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage area. It was found that in both these sectors most of the respondents were involved in trading and that very few were involved in manufacturing. Incomes earned by most of the respondents were low. and compared to subsistence level incomes only, It also appeared that the employment creation spin‐off was low. Similar problems inhibited the growth and development of this sector for both Blacks and Coloureds. They were: short‐ and long‐term loans, accommodation, poor infrastructure, and legal restrictions.     

THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA SINCE 1994

This paper uses a structural vector‐autoregression approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed to the remarkable stabilisation of the South African economy over this period. The evaluation of the role of fiscal policy in stabilisation has been less favourable and there is little evidence that a countercyclical fiscal stance was a priority over this period. This paper considers these issues in an empirical framework that addresses some of the shortcomings in the literature. Specifically, it constructs a structural model in contrast with the reduced form models typically used in the South African literature, incorporates the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal shocks on the demand side and supply shocks on the other, and avoids controversy over “neutral” base years and the size of fiscal elasticities. The model confirms the consensus on monetary policy, finding it to have been largely countercyclical since 1994. On fiscal policy, this paper finds evidence of pro‐cyclicality, especially in the more recent period, though the policy simulations suggest that the pro‐cyclicality of fiscal policy has had little destabilising impact on real output.