An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin,China

Water Resources Management - The accurate simulation and prediction of flood response in urbanized basins remains a great challenge due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in land surface...     

Regionalisation of physically-based water balance models in Belgium. Application to ungauged catchments

More than 60 catchments from Northern Belgium ranging in size from 16 to 3160 km² have been studied by means of a physically-based stochastic water balance model. The parameter values derived from calibration of the model were regionally mapped for the study region. Associations between model parameters and basin lithological characteristics were established and tested. The results show that the simple conceptual monthly water balance model with three parameters for actual evapotranspiration, slow and fast runoff is capable either to generate monthly streamflow at ungauged sites or to extend river flow at gauged sites. This allows a fairly accurate estimation of monthly discharges at any location within the region.     

Transferability of Conceptual Hydrological Models Across Temporal Resolutions: Approach and Application

The temporal resolution of observed data is a critical element in determining the parameters, prediction performance, and applicability of hydrological models. In this study, runoff simulations were performed at different temporal resolutions using the Xinanjiang model to evaluate the influence of temporal resolution on the model parameters and performance. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, the posterior distribution of the sensitive parameters was derived using the Bayesian method and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm at different temporal resolutions. The transformation functions of the model parameters were put forward to transform the parameters according to the regulatory between the parameters and time-steps on the basis of the parameters posterior distribution. The model performance and uncertainty for runoff simulation were compared and discussed at each temporal resolution. The results show that (1) the parameters related with the process of the water balance and runoff routing are identified as sensitive to the temporal resolutions, and there exist linear or power function relationships between parameter values at different temporal resolutions; and (2) the quantitative relationship equations have been verified to have good capacity for model simulation when the model parameters are transformed from other temporal resolution.     

Toward Improved Calibration of SWAT Using Season-Based Multi-Objective Optimization: a Case Study in the Jinjiang Basin in Southeastern China

Calibration is an important step in most hydrological modeling processes because it helps produce reasonable results. This study aims to investigate the seasonal sensitivity of streamflow parameters and to evaluate the ability of a season-based multi-objective approach to calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The primary goal was achieved through an integrated approach. A variance-based global sensitivity technique, Sobol’ method, was used to evaluate the seasonal sensitivity of streamflow parameters. For the multi-objective approach, three objective functions were considered: the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of logarithmic transformed discharge, and relative bias. The model performances of the season-based multi-objective approach MOO(II), based on these functions and flow duration curves during wet and dry seasons, were compared to three other methods: SOO(I), a conventional single-objective approach to the entire series; SOO(II), a season-based single-objective approach; and MOO(I), a multi-objective approach for the entire series. The four methods were assessed using the SWAT model to predict daily discharge in the Jinjiang basin in southeastern China. The results showed that sensitivity of model parameters varied between the wet and dry seasons. The seasonal calibration approaches, MOO(II) and SOO(II), showed significantly better simulation performances during the dry season while the multi-objective approaches produced more accurate simulations of different aspects of the hydrograph, including peak and low flows and overall water balance, compared to the single-objective methods. MOO(II) captured the seasonal variation of hydrological processes best, compared to the other methods, and the parameter values it identified demonstrated significant seasonal variations.     

Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins

Water Resources Management - Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and...     

Performance of Post-Processed Methods in Hydrological Predictions Evaluated by Deterministic and Probabilistic Criteria

Water Resources Management - Meteorological Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP), which uses Ensemble Weather forecasts (EWFs) to drive hydrological models, is a useful methodology for extending...     

The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates

Under current global change, the driving force of evolution of drought has gradually transitioned from a single natural factor to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, widely used standardised drought indices based on assumption of stationarity are challenged and may not accurately assess characteristics of drought processes. In this study, a nonstationary standardised streamflow index (NSSI) that incorporates climate and reservoir indices as external covariates was developed to access nonstationary hydrological drought. The first step of the proposed approach is to apply methods of trend and change point analysis to assess the nonstationarity of streamflow series to determine type of streamflow regime, that is, the natural and altered regime. Then, different nonstationary models were constructed to calculate the NSSI by selecting climate indices as covariates for streamflow series with natural regime, and climate and reservoir indices as covariate for streamflow series with altered regime. Four stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River basin, China, were selected to examine the performance of the proposed NSSI. The results indicated that Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), and Xixian (XX) stations had natural streamflow regimes, while the Nanwan (NW) station had an altered regime. The global deviances of the optimal nonstationary models were 17 (2.2%), 18 (2.9%), 26 (4.0%), and 22 (3.5%) less than those of stationary models for DPL, CTG, NW, and XX stations, respectively. Especially, for the NW station influenced by reservoir regulations, the frequency of slight drought and moderate drought of NSSI was 12.8% lower than and 13.1% greater than those of SSI, respectively. Overall, the NSSI that incorporates the influence of climate variability and reservoir regulations provided more reliable assessment of hydrological drought than the traditional SSI.

     

Uncertainty Intercomparison of Different Hydrological Models in Simulating Extreme Flows

A growing number of investigations on uncertainty quantification for hydrological models have been widely reported in past years. However, limited studies are found on uncertainty assessment in simulating streamflow extremes so far. This article presents an intercomparison of uncertainty assessment of three different well-known hydrological models in simulating extreme streamflows using the approach of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Results indicate that: (1) The three modified hydrological models can reproduce daily streamflow series with acceptable accuracy. When the threshold value used to select behavioral parameter sets is 0.7, XAJ model generates the best GLUE estimates in simulating daily flows. However, the percentage of observations contained in the calculated 95 % confidence intervals (P-95CI) is low (<50 %) when simulating the high-flow index (Q10). (2) Decreasing average relative length (ARIL), P-95CI and increasing average asymmetry degree (AAD) are found, when the threshold value increases for both daily-flows and high-flows. However, there is a significant inconsistence between sensitivity of daily-flows and high-flows to various threshold values of the likelihood function. Uncertainty sources from parameter sets, model structure and inputs collectively accounts for above sensitivity. (3) The best hydrological model in simulating daily-flows is not identical under different threshold values. High P-95CIs of GLUE estimate for high-flows (Q10 and Q25) indicate that TOPMODEL generally performs best under different threshold values, while XAJ model produces the smallest ARIL under different threshold values. The results are expected to contribute toward knowledge improvement on uncertainty behaviors in simulating streamflow extremes by a variety of hydrological models.     

Quantifying the Human Induced Water Level Decline of China’s Largest Freshwater Lake from the Changing Underlying Surface in the Lake Region

In recent years, dramatic decline in China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, has raised wide concerns about water supply and ecological crises in the middle–lower Yangtze River reaches. To assist in resolving the debates regarding the low water regime of the lake, the current study quantitatively assessed the enhanced water level decline from the changing underlying surface in the Poyang Lake region. It is the first time that the magnitude, temporal–spatial difference, trend development and background mechanism of lake water level variation and its causes are studied comprehensively. The results revealed that the changing underlying surface in the lake region has caused an average decline of annual water level of 0.26 m ~ 0.75 m across the lake during 2000–2014, which shows great seasonal and spatial differences. The enlarged outflow cross–section due to extensive sand mining was the major reason for the effect on water level decline in the northern lake. While, increased water surface gradient should be attributed to water level decline in the southern lake. The long–term increasing trend of annual lake water level decline reflects the cumulative effects of lake bottom topography change caused by the continuous south movement of sand mining activities.     

Correction to: An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin,China

Water Resources Management - The original version of this article contains incorrect symbol in eq. 7 and incorrect font style in eq. 8 which have been corrected.