Creating a Testable, Estimable Model to Inform Our Response to the Test-Score Gap Crisis

The test-score gap between black and white students should be seen as a crisis. We propose a testable model based on readily available data that will allow us to estimate the impact and interrelationships of a multitude of factors that may be partially responsible for the problem. The estimation of this model will require the joint efforts of experts in many areas of education as well as of experts in multilevel structural equation modeling.     

Factors associated with single-vehicle and multi-vehicle road traffic collision injuries in Ireland

Generalised linear regression models were used to identify factors associated with fatal/serious road traffic collision injuries for single- and multi-vehicle collisions. Single-vehicle collisions and multi-vehicle collisions occurring during the hours of darkness or on a wet road surface had reduced likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle ‘driver with passengers’ collisions occurring at junctions or on a hill/gradient were less likely to result in a fatal/serious injury. Multi-vehicle rear-end/angle collisions had reduced likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle ‘driver only’ collisions and multi-vehicle collisions occurring on a public/bank holiday or on a hill/gradient were more likely to result in a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle collisions involving male drivers had increased likelihood of a fatal/serious injury and single-vehicle ‘driver with passengers’ collisions involving drivers under the age of 25 years also had increased likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Findings can enlighten decision-makers to circumstances leading to fatal/serious injuries.     

Competing priorities as constraints in event travel careers

An event travel career is a potentially lifelong pattern of travel to events linked with an individual’s preferred leisure activity. This paper applies the concept of an event travel career to non-elite triathletes. For these active sport tourists, ongoing pursuit of an event travel career is arguably constrained by competing priorities that intervene between everyday life and their pursuit of an event travel career. In-depth interviews were conducted with 21 triathletes identified as pursuing an event travel career. Interpretive analysis revealed seven domains of competing priorities that could work to constrain their event travel career aspirations. These domains included familial relationships, domestic responsibilities, sociability, finances, leisure, wellbeing, and work/education. The seven competing priority domains were interrelated, and cyclical in their constraining effects. Data assisted in clarifying some defining characteristics of the event travel career concept, and challenged notions of leisure participation as entirely positive and fulfilling.     

Evaluation of the Feasibility of Irrigation Storage in a Flood Detention Pond in an Agricultural Catchment in Northern Italy

During recent years, the international attention paid to rational use and saving of water has increased, partly because of frequent water shortages occurring also in countries not usually involved in these problems, and partly as a consequence of rising conflicts on water allocation. Hence it is important to find new surface-water volumes satisfying agricultural water demand, as well as new ways and areas to store them. The simulation model presented by the paper enables evaluation, in a phase of design feasibility analysis, of whether a flood detention pond can be adapted to act as water storage during irrigation periods in order to reduce agricultural water shortages; it simulates detention pond response to floods and droughts under different hydraulic conditions and reservoir management rules. The first policy goal of the model is to maintain the stored volume within the maximum admissible for flood safety. The second goal is to maintain at the same time a minimum flow in the river and to satisfy irrigation water demand. The model, implemented in a purpose-made simulation software, was applied to an Italian river in the Emilia Romagna region: the results demonstrate that the use of a flood detention pond as an irrigation reservoir is not only possible, if it complies with the operating rules that emerge from this study, but also it brings tangible benefits in reducing agricultural water deficit.     

DNA barcoding to confirm morphological traits and determine relative abundance of burrowing mayfly species in western Lake Erie

Burrowing mayfly species of the genus Hexagenia are well known indicators of environmental health in lakes and rivers. Two species, H. limbata and H. rigida, are indistinguishable as nymphs and as adult females. Our objectives were to develop a genetic technique to distinguish between the two species and identify morphological features that separate cryptic nymphs and adult females. Fifty nymphs were collected before emergence from 10 sites throughout the western basin of Lake Erie in 2004 and 2005. Using known specimens of adult aerial male H. limbata and H. rigida, we used the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene to identify a 16 base pair (bp) difference between species. DNA sequencing confirmed correct species identification based on differences in abdominal pigmentation patterns on adult female imagos in 19 of 20 cases; the lone exception was a female with very faint pigmentation. Pigmentation patterns between species were consistent on nymphs, subimagos and imagos of both sexes. Populations of both species are panmictic across the western basin of Lake Erie, but H. limbata is the numerically dominant species, representing 70 to 100% of nymphs at sites in both years. A separate lineage of H limbata was discovered in the samples. The ability to distinguish nymphs of the two species will aid in developing more sensitive ecosystem indicators.     

The nature and extent of service user involvement in critical care research and quality improvement: A scoping review of the literature

The importance of involving patients and the public in health care research is globally recognized, but how best to do this in critical care is unclear. The aim of this first published review was to explore the extent and nature of evidence on service user involvement in critical care research and quality improvement. Using the scoping review framework described by Arksey and O'Malley ( 2005 ), a team of service user and critical care researchers searched eleven online databases, reviewed relevant web sites, conducted forward and backward citation searching and contacted subject experts. Extracted data were subjected to a narrative synthesis based on the objectives of the review. Findings from a broad range of evidence support that involvement is becoming more commonplace and that experiences are generally positive. Data extracted from 34 publications identify that involvement is most commonly reported at the level of consultation or participation in project teams, however, the extent to which involvement impacts on projects output remains unclear. Key barriers and facilitators relate to the challenge of recruiting a diverse group of service users, dealing with power hierarchies, being adaptable and effective consideration of the resource requirements. More research is required to identify the most effective methods to support the opportunity for involvement and more thorough reporting of service user involvement practices is strongly recommended.     

Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting

Global vector autoregressions (GVARs) have several attractive features: multiple potential channels for the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks, a standardized economically appealing choice of variables for each country or region examined, systematic treatment of long-run properties through cointegration analysis, and flexible dynamic specification through vector error correction modeling. Pesaran et al. (2009) generate and evaluate forecasts from a paradigm GVAR with 26 countries, based on Dées, di Mauro et al. (2007). The current paper empirically assesses the GVAR in Dées, di Mauro et al. (2007) with impulse indicator saturation (IIS)??a new generic procedure for evaluating parameter constancy, which is a central element in model-based forecasting. The empirical results indicate substantial room for an improved, more robust specification of that GVAR. Some tests are suggestive of how to achieve such improvements.     

Cyanobacterial blooms in the central basin of Lake Erie: Potentials for cyanotoxins and environmental drivers

Lake Erie western basin (WB) cyanobacterial blooms are a yearly summer occurrence; however, blooms have also been reported in the offshore waters of the central basin (CB), and very little is known about what drives these blooms or their potential for cyanobacterial toxins. Cyanobacteria Index was quantified using MODIS and MERIS data for the CB between 2003 and 2017, and water samples were collected between 2013 and 2017. The goals were to 1) quantify cyanobacteria, 2) determine environmental drivers of CB blooms, and 3) determine the potential for cyanobacterial toxins in the CB. Dolichospermum (Anabaena) occurred in the CB during July before the onset of the WB bloom, and then in August and September, the cyanobacteria community shifted towards Microcystis. The largest Dolichospermum blooms (2003, 2012, 2013, and 2015) were associated with reduced water clarity (Secchi disk depth?<?4?m), whereas large CB Microcystis blooms (2011 and 2015) were associated with large WB blooms. Dolichospermum blooms occurred in high nitrate concentrations (>20?μmol/L) and high nitrogen-to?phosphorus ratios (>100), which indicate nutrient concentrations or ratios did not select for Dolichospermum. Additionally, the sxtA gene, but not mcyE or microcystins, were detected in the CB during July 2016 and 2017. The mcyE gene and microcystins were detected in the CB during August 2016 and 2017. The results indicate the CB's potential for cyanotoxins shifts from saxitoxins to microcystins throughout the summer. Continued monitoring of cyanobacteria and multiple cyanobacterial toxins is recommended to ensure safe drinking water for CB coastal communities.