Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

A History of the D–Mark's Real External Value

An equilibrium time path of the real effective exchange rate of Germany's currency in the post Bretton Woods period is calculated. For this purpose, a NATREX model for the long–run determination of this specific variable is developed. A cointegration analysis gives evidence in favour of the model and provides the equilibrium values. The theoretical and empirical results are used to analyse in detail movements in the real exchange rate of the D–Mark. Estimation results suggest, among other things, that the D–Mark has mostly been overvalued and that it often adjusted with some delay to changes in the fundamentals.     

Random Advertising and Monopolistic Price Dispersion

We investigate the role of price advertising in a market where consumers are imperfectly informed about prices. We consider a monopolist whose demand depends on price and advertising expenditure. This demand function is derived from optimizing behavior of consumers. Uninformed consumers may pay a cost to visit the seller and obtain price information. Advertising enables the monopolist to increase the number of informed consumers. In equilibrium the uninformed consumers form rational price expectations, and the seller necessarily adopts a random pricing and advertising strategy.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.     

Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes

VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice.