THE BLUE NILE: POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT AND ALTERNATIVES FOR MEETING FUTURE DEMANDS

ABSTRACT

Despite nearly a century of water regulation projects on the Nile Basin, today Egypt faces a genuine crisis with respect to water supply. The crisis has been brought on by a combination of drought and greatly increased usage by all riparian nations along the Nile. It is highly probable that Egypt will need to search for new sources of water, reallocate existing water supply and reduce demand simultaneously in order to stave off major water shortfalls. It is unlikely that these measures can be accomplished without both internal and external conflict. This paper describes the current state of water supply and usage in Egypt. Further we examine potential sources of conflict over water allocation decisions. Finally, the paper presents a method for evaluating alternative strategies that could be implemented by Egypt to avoid future conflict.     

Modification and Re-calibration of the Simulation Model of Lake Nasser

Abstract

In 1981, a mathematical simulation model for Lake Nasser (SMLN) was developed to test different hydrologic conditions and operation policies of the Aswan High Dam (AHD). At that time, AHD had been operating for around 12 years. Over the thirty years of the dam operation, the Egyptian water resources managers experienced cycles of floods and droughts. Also, data and information about the hydrologic parameters of the lake as well as the dam performance were accumulated. This by itself constitutes a good reason for re-calibrating of the SMLN. The 1998–1999 flood, which manifested the need to reconsider the dominant operation policy, also called for the adjustment and re-calibration of the SMLN or at least to retest its accuracy. This paper describes the effort carried out to recalibrate this model using few parameters and adjust its original mathematical formulation. Elements of the mass balance equation of the lake, which are uncertain and at the same time seem to have significant impact, have been used in the modification and re-calibration. The presented results show, in many cases, an improvement in the model performance and accuracy when compared with the original version calibrated in 1981. Nevertheless, these results should not be considered a final step in improving the model performance. Actual measurements of evaporation rates and piezometric heads of the groundwater around the lake may be used to formulate new and better loss equations     

The Use of Object-Oriented Modeling for Water Resources Planning in Egypt

Water problems are omnipresent and are already becoming a limiting factor in the development of many countries. Currently the balance between the available and required water in Egypt is fragile. Any movement away from the balancing point means either less ambitious economic development or depletion of the resources and degradation of the environment. The continuing revolution in computer hardware and software is expected to provide more insight into the water problems and to alleviate some of the future water crises. In this paper we have investigated potential benefits which can be accrued from the application of object-oriented modeling in water resources.     

Politics of the Dead Sea Canal: a historical review of the evolving discourses,interests, and plans

This article explores how the idea of a canal connecting the Dead Sea with either the Red Sea or the Mediterranean Sea has evolved. It analyzes the proposals, the official interests, and the undeclared reasons. It provides a critical understanding of the discourses behind the complex hydro-political dynamics in a changing and contested topography within the context of a wider geopolitical conflict. This study sheds lights on the relations between interests, discourses, and the canal project. This study contributes to the literature on water history by shedding light on the evolving relations between interests, discourses, and the canal project.     

Classifying and modeling nonlinearity in commodity prices using Incoterms

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a novel approach of classifying and modeling the nonlinear behavior of commodity prices using regime-switching models with exogenous transition variables. The approach rests on using the International Commercial Terms (Incoterms), also known as border prices, to classify commodities in groups that tend to display similar dynamics. The suggested border price classification is useful in identifying the key exogenous driving variables in each group. In particular, the classification suggests that inflation and oil price are the best transition candidates that are capable of capturing the nonlinear dynamics of free on board (FOB) and cost insurance and freight (CIF) prices respectively. Our statistical linearity tests and estimation results confirm this prediction and highlight the importance of the suggested border price classification in improving our understanding of the behavior of commodity prices.     

Multi-Criteria Approach for Evaluating Long Term Water Strategies

Abstract

Long-term national water strategies, which are formulated to cope with the socio-economic development plans, have either positive or negative impacts in several domains including environment, economy, and social life. Intuitive evaluation of policies and actions on the basis of their social, economic, and environmental utilities is ambiguous and very complex. Setting water resources policies for a country like Egypt is a good example of this type of complexity due to its multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interrelated environment. There is a classical assumption in water resources planning and management that stipulates decisions based on optimization of a well-defined single objective. In reality, the decision-making process is much more complex. Decision makers seek an optimal compromise among several objectives or try to achieve satisfying levels of their goals. Therefore, the present study proposes the multi-criteria analysis as an approach for evaluating Egypt's long term plans to reveal their rank and behavior throughout the foreseen planning horizon. Several evaluation criteria (indicators) have been articulated and grouped into four main categories: water, environment, social, and economy. A simple empirical simulation model was used to score different criteria. Four cases have been compared and evaluated by the suggested approach. Each case represents an anticipated national water-related development plan. This is carried out under specific scenarios for uncontrolled variables such as population growth rate, hydrological river flow into the system, and others. The application showed that a multi-criteria approach could contribute significantly to the decision making process in Egypt. It provides a systematic way of presenting the tradeoffs among policy choices considering many issues.