印度水电方面的技术成就

大型水电工程需要大量的开挖隧洞，作者是负责印度国家水电公司（NHPC）所属的Tessta Ⅱ级水电工程的总工程师，现对印度在水电开发中的最新隧洞开挖工程做了一个展望。     

ON VALUING STOCHASTIC PERPETUITIES USING NEW LONG HORIZON STOCK PRICE MODELS DISTINGUISHING BOOMS,BUSTS, AND BALANCED MARKETS

For longer horizons, assuming no dividend distributions, models for discounted stock prices in balanced markets are formulated as conditional expectations of nontrivial terminal random variables defined at infinity. Observing that extant models fail to have this property, new models are proposed. The new concept of a balanced market proposed here permits a distinction between such markets and unduly optimistic or pessimistic ones. A tractable example is developed and termed the discounted variance gamma model. Calibrations to market data provide empirical support. Additionally, procedures are presented for the valuation of path dependent stochastic perpetuities. Evidence is provided for long dated equity linked claims paying coupon for time spent by equity above a lower barrier, being underpriced by extant models relative to the new discounted ones. Given the popularity of such claims, the resulting mispricing could possibly take some corrections. Furthermore for these new discounted models, implied volatility curves do not flatten out at the larger maturities.     

Determining Hydraulic Characteristics of Production Wells using Genetic Algorithm

Proper well management requires the determination of characteristic hydraulic parameters of production wells such as well loss coefficient (C) and aquifer loss coefficient (B), which are conventionally determined by the graphical analysis ofstep-drawdowntest data. However, in the present study, the efficacy of a non-conventional optimization technique called Genetic Algorithm (GA), which ensures near-optimal or optimal solutions, is assessedin determining well parameters from step-drawdown test data. Computer programs were developed to optimize the well parametersby GA technique for two cases: (i) optimization of B and C only, and (ii) optimization of B, C and p (exponent) as well as to evaluate the well condition. The reliability and robustness of the developed computer programs were tested usingnine sets of published and unpublished step-drawdown data from varying hydrogeologic conditions. The well parameters obtained by the GA technique were compared with those obtained by the conventional graphical method in terms of root mean square error(RMSE) and visual inspection. It was revealed that the GA technique yielded more reliable well parameters with significantlylow values of RMSE for almost all the datasets, especially in caseof three-variable optimization. The optimal values of the parametersB, C and p for the nine datasets were found to range from 0.382 to 2.292 min m^-2, 0.091 to 3.262, and 1.8 to 3.6, respectively. Because of a wide variation of p, the GA techniqueresulted in considerably different but dependable and robust well parameters as well as well specific capacity and well efficiency compared to the graphical method. The condition of three wells was found to be good, one well bad and that of the remaining five wells satisfactory. The performance evaluation of the developed GA code indicated that a proper selection of generation number and population size is essential to ensure efficient optimization. Furthermore,a sensitivity analysis of the obtained optimal parameters demonstrated that the GA technique resulted in a unique set ofthe parameters for all the nine datasets. It is concluded thatthe GA technique is an effective and reliable numerical tool for determining the characteristic hydraulic parameters of production wells.     

Pricing the risks of default

This paper decomposes default risk into timing and recovery risks. The two default components are explicitly priced as if they were traded in the futures market. We develop estimation strategies evaluating recovery risks and then construct implicit prices of contingent securities reflecting purely the timing risk. The models are estimated on monthly data for rates on certificates of deposit offered by institutions in the Savings and Loan Industry, during the 1987–1991 period. Empirical results support market expectations of lower likelihoods of default after 1989.     

The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing

A three parameter stochastic process, termed the variance gamma process, that generalizes Brownian motion is developed as a model for the dynamics of log stock prices. The process is obtained by evaluating Brownian motion with drift at a random time given by a gamma process. The two additional parameters are the drift of the Brownian motion and the volatility of the time change. These additional parameters provide control over the skewness and kurtosis of the return distribution. Closed forms are obtained for the return density and the prices of European options. The statistical and risk neutral densities are estimated for data on the S & P500 Index and the prices of options on this Index. It is observed that the statistical density is symmetric with some kurtosis, while the risk neutral density is negatively skewed with a larger kurtosis. The additional parameters also correct for pricing biases of the Black Scholes model that is a parametric special case of the option pricing model developed here.     

SIMPLE PROCESSES AND THE PRICING AND HEDGING OF CLIQUETS

For data on market prices for 246 cliquets we consider pricing these exotic options using a relatively simple path space. The path space is subsequently stressed to market implied stress levels as well as stress levels predicted from contract characteristics. An additive process transitioning from a Sato process to a Levy process is formulated and estimated on vanilla options. Ask prices constructed from predicted stress levels are observed to have an in sample correlation of 92% with market prices. Interestingly, it is observed that capped cash flows have negative stress levels while uncapped products have positive stress levels. We illustrate the effect of hedging cliquet liabilities using call options as hedging assets permitting a 10% reduction in ask prices.     

Transfer prices and the structure of intra-firm trade

In this paper the structure of intra-firm trade within the context of transfer price manipulation by a multinational firm is endogenized. 'High' and 'low' values of host-country tax rates give rise to intra-firm trade in final goods and intermediate inputs, and 'intermediate' values of the tax rate are associated with intra-firm trade in either the intermediate inputs or the final goods only. Higher tariffs and stricter local content restrictions bias intra-firm trade towards intermediate-good trade and final-good trade, respectively. In the presence of endogenous transfer prices host-country sales may increase if the multinational faces stricter trade restrictions and higher host-country tax rates. JEL Classification: F23, F12
Prix de cession interne et structure du commerce itnra-firme. Ce mémoire endogénéise la structure du commerce intra-firme dans le contexte d'un modèle qui permet la manipulation du prix de cession interne par une firme plurinationale. Des taux de taxation hauts et bas par le pays hôte entraînent un commerce international intra-firme tant dans les biens finaux que dans les intrants intermédiaires; des taux moyens de taxation sont associés à un commere intra-firme soit dans les intrants intermédiaires, soit dans les biens finaux mais pas dans les deux. Des droits de douane élevés et des restrictions sur le contenu intérieur plus importantes créent des distorsions en faveur du commerce intra-firme dans les biens intermédiaires et dans les biens finaux respectivement. Quand il existe des prix de cession interne endogènes, les ventes de la firme nationale peuvent s'accroître si la firme plurinationale fait face à des restrictions au commerce plus importantes et à des taux de taxation plus élevés de la part du pays hôte.     

Multi-cultural leadership teams and organizational identification in international joint ventures

Many international joint ventures (IJVs) fare poorly. An important factor is that members of an IJV top management team (TMT), which generally comprises people from different cultures, often find it difficult to work together. In this paper we argue that social identity theory and organizational identification processes can help us understand why this is so. We propose that factionalism in a TMT is a significant hazard posed by member identification with different parents. In addition, identification with both the IJV and a parent firm can lead to significant role conflict for IJV top managers. Factionalism and role conflict in turn can result in poor intra-TMT communications and inefficient decision making. Literature in social identity theory and organizational identification suggests that the relative status and power of parents as well as successes of IJVs can affect TMT members' identification with the IJV or the parent company. Preliminary field interviews provide general support for these propositions. Our analysis suggests that organizational identity and identification can be a valuable tool to facilitate the understanding of TMT functioning and IJV performance.     

A tale of two volatilities

We show that there are two distinct ways to make volatility stochastic that are differentiated by their consequences for skewness. Most models in the literature have adopted the relatively tractable methodology of using stochastic time changes to engineer stochastic volatility. Unfortunately, this is also the one that can conflict with the relationship occasionally observed in markets between volatility and skewness. Research enhancing the tractability of the second approach to stochastic volatility based on scaling is called for.