Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development

The oil exporting countries have experienced a relatively continuous fall in GDP per capita over the last 30 years. This is in spite of benefiting from a more than average of the rest of the world investment rate. The findings of this paper, report a lower level of financial development for the oil economies when compared with the rest of the world. We will show in this paper that the higher rate of investment of the oil economies can be explained mainly by the oil revenues and surprisingly, financial development has a net dampening effect on investment for these economies. The paper also shows that the weakness of financial institutions, contributes to the poor performance of economic growth of the oil economies and the weakness of financial institutions might be associated with the dominant role of government in total investment and the weakness of private sector.     

Process Mining Approach of a New Water Quality Index for Long-Term Assessment under Uncertainty Using Consensus-Based Fuzzy Decision Support System

One of the biggest challenges in water quality monitoring is how to optimize big Data gathered from a wide range of resources. This paper presented a new software-based pathway of process mining approach for extending a flexible WQI (Water Quality Index) that would deal with uncertainties derived from missing data occurrence in short- and long-term assessments. The methodology is based on integration of four multi-criteria group decision-making models coupled with fuzzy simulation including AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process), fuzzy OWA (Ordered Weighting Average), TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), and fuzzy TOPSIS that were used for data mining and group consensus evaluation.. Examining the methodology on groundwater resources being supplied for drinking in Shiraz, Iran showed high integrity, accuracy, and proximity-to-real interpretation of water quality. This was the first study where decision-making risks such as Decision Makers’ risk-prone or risk-aversion attitudes (optimistic degree), DMs’ power, and consensus degree of each water quality parameter have been considered in WQI research. The proposed index offered a flexible choice in defining the intended project duration, stakeholders’ judgments, types of water use and water resource, standards, as well as type and number of water quality parameters. Thus, beside sustaining the unity in structure, this methodology could be suggested as a potentially WQI for other regions. The presented methodology would help more efficient monitoring of water resources for drinking purpose with respect to water quality.

     

Statistical model for earthquake economic loss estimation using GDP and DPI: a case study from Iran

As earthquakes can result in multi-dimensional negative consequences such as human loss and building damage, the ability to make accurate economic loss estimations immediately after the occurrence is crucial. Unfortunately, in many earthquake-stricken countries such as Iran, governments are often unable to quickly or accurately assess post-earthquake losses. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to extend the model developed by Chan et al. (Nat Hazards 17:269–283, 1998) to two independent variables to develop an earthquake economic loss estimation method based on the economic and socio-economic indices gross domestic product (GDP) and disposable personal income (DPI) and a seismic hazard probability function. A global cell map is also considered to assess the GDP and DPI based on the population in each cell affected by the earthquake. In the final stage, using the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, 18 earthquake damaged areas in Iran are taken as case study to estimate the economic losses using the new model presented in this paper.

     

Nonlinear Interval Parameter Programming Combined with Cooperative Games: a Tool for Addressing Uncertainty in Water Allocation Using Water Diplomacy Framework

Water Resources Management - This paper shows the utility of a new interval cooperative game theory as an effective water diplomacy tool to resolve competing and conflicting needs of water users...     

Best practice network business model for internationalization of small and medium enterprises

Small and medium enterprises’ entry to international markets leads to their continuous growth and facilitates national and global economic development. In an attempt to substantiate these outcomes, they seek to acquire best practices and experiences in order to facilitate entering, surviving, and growing in global markets. To address this challenge practically, the present paper introduces a media for networking and a system for transferring internationalization best practices across small and medium enterprises under the concept of Best Practice Network. Subsequently, the paper tries to depict Best Practice Network as a viable business and establish a guideline for implementing it by developing its business model. To achieve this objective, the authors have administered multi-case study research among the top managers of international small and medium enterprises in the information and communication technology sector of Iran. The resulting model is based on business model ontology and proposes a bird’s eye view of the Best Practice Network including product, customer interface, infrastructure management, and financial aspects. Moreover, by proposing a media for sharing related best practices, this paper can lead to the decline of the stage theory of internationalization and can excel the born global theory of small and medium enterprises.     

Consumer responses to different degrees of advertising adaptation: the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets

We investigate the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets on consumer responses (attitude to ad, brand and purchase intention) to different degrees of advertising adaptation in Belgium, Iran and India. We operationalize three levels of advertising adaptation (standardization, glocalization and adaptation) by manipulating the model (international versus local celebrity) and advertising copy (international versus local advertising copy). The results show that societies with a low openness to foreign markets respond more positively to fully adapted ads than to glocalized and standardized ads. The differences in responses decrease with national openness.     

A Probabilistic Multiperiod Simulation–Optimization Approach for Dynamic Coastal Aquifer Management

Combined simulation–optimization (CSO) schemes are common in the literature to solve different groundwater management problems, and CSO is particularly well-established in the coastal aquifer management literature. However, with a few exceptions, nearly all previous studies have employed the CSO approach to derive static groundwater management plans that remain unchanged during the entire management period, consequently overlooking the possible positive impacts of dynamic strategies. Dynamic strategies involve division of the planning time interval into several subintervals or periods, and adoption of revised decisions during each period based on the most recent knowledge of the groundwater system and its associated uncertainties. Problem structuring and computational challenges seem to be the main factors preventing the widespread implementation of dynamic strategies in groundwater applications. The objective of this study is to address these challenges by introducing a novel probabilistic Multiperiod CSO approach for dynamic groundwater management. This includes reformulation of the groundwater management problem so that it can be adapted to the multiperiod CSO approach, and subsequent employment of polynomial chaos expansion-based stochastic dynamic programming to obtain optimal dynamic strategies. The proposed approach is employed to provide sustainable solutions for a coastal aquifer storage and recovery facility in Oman, considering the effect of natural recharge uncertainty. It is revealed that the proposed dynamic approach results in an improved performance by taking advantage of system variations, allowing for increased groundwater abstraction, injection and hence monetary benefit compared to the commonly used static optimization approach.

     

Home-related injuries among under-five-year children and mothers' care regarding injury prevention in rural areas

This cross-sectional study was conducted in rural areas of Twiserkan (Toyserkan) County, in Iran, to assess factors associated with home-related injuries among under-five-year children and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention. Mothers who had their under-five-year-old children injured within a 12-month period were identified from recorded information in Twiserkan Health Center. Then, data were gathered using pre-tested questionnaire and through interview with injured children's mothers. The questions were about characteristics of the children's injuries and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention, using PRECEDE (Predisposing, Reinforcing, and Enabling Constructs in Educational/Environmental Diagnosis and Evaluation) model with focus on knowledge and attitude; enabling and reinforcing factors; and mothers' preventive behaviours. The study results showed that 197 out of 210 total identified mothers took part in the study. The reported injuries were 11.68%, 39.09%, and 49.24%, respectively, for severe, moderate, and mild cases. Fall was the most frequent injury with 35%. Among PRECEDE model constructs, there was a statistically significant correlation between mothers' knowledge and injury severity among children. Home-related injuries are an important health problem among study population and their prediction and prevention are necessary. Enhancement of mothers’ knowledge can be helpful to improve child injury prevention.     

Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling

Urmia Lake in Iran is the second largest saline lake in the world. This ecosystem is the home for different species. Due to various socio-economical and ecological criteria, Urmia Lake has important role in the Northwestern part of the country but it has faced many problems in recent years. Because of droughts, overuse of surface water resources and dam constructions, water level has decreased in such a way that one quarter of the lake has changed to saline area in the last 10 years. The purpose of this research is to determine the main factors which reduce the lake’s water level. To this end, a simulation model, based on system dynamics method, is developed for the Urmia Lake basin to estimate the lake’s level. After successful verification of the model, results show that (among the proposed factors) changes in inflows due to the climate change and overuse of surface water resources is the main factor for 65% of the effect, constructing four dams is responsible for 25% of the problem, and less precipitation on lake has 10% effect on decreasing the lake’s level in the recent years. In the future, the model also can be used by managers as a decision support system to find the effects of building new dams or other infrastructures.     

Sole sourcing in EOQ models with Binomial yield

We develop two EOQ-based inventory models in which an inventory manager must determine the order size as well as the supply reliability level in the presence of uncertainty in the quality and/or quantity of supply. The number of acceptable units in the order is captured by the Binomial yield model, and reliability is increased both by increasing the order setup cost and by increasing the unit price. For each developed model, we present an equation of which a solution is the optimal reliability level and a closed form solution for the optimal order size given the optimal reliability level. We then provide a comparison of the two models.