Optimal Inter-Basin Water Allocation Using Crisp and Fuzzy Shapley Games

In recent years, uneven distribution of available water resources as well as increasing water demands and overexploiting the water resources have brought severe need for transferring water from basins having sufficient water to basins facing water shortages. Therefore, optimal allocation of shared water resources in water transfer projects, considering the utilities of different stakeholders, physical limitations of the system and socioeconomic criteria is an important task. In this paper, a new methodology based on crisp and fuzzy Shapley games is developed for optimal allocation of inter-basin water resources. In the proposed methodology, initial water allocations are obtained using an optimization model considering an equity criterion. In the second step, the stakeholders form crisp coalitions to increase the total net benefit of the system as well as their own benefits and a crisp Shapley Value game is used to reallocate the benefits produced in the crisp coalitions. Lastly, to provide maximum total net benefit, fuzzy coalitions are constituted and the participation rates of water users to fuzzy coalitions are optimized. Then, the total net benefit is reallocated to water users in a rational and equitable way using Fuzzy Shapley Value game. The effectiveness of this method is examined by applying it to a large scale case study of water transfer from the Karoon river basin in southern Iran to the Rafsanjan plain in central Iran.     

An application of the theory of planned behaviour to understand compliance with daytime running headlights law among motorcycle riders

Abstract

Fatal motorcycle crashes are a persistent problem in Southeast Asia. In many respects, road safety experts have acknowledged conspicuity issue as one of the main causes of such accidents. To mitigate this deficiency, daytime running headlights (DRHs) law has been documented among the widely exercised countermeasures. The present study aimed to explore socio-psychological factors shaping intentions towards use of DRHs among Malaysian motorcyclists, because compliance level with this rule has remained constant since 1996 (80%). For this purpose, a model was constructed through the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to evaluate factors affecting motorcyclists’ intentions towards compliance with DRHs law. A series of statistical analyses were performed to explain the effect of these factors and to predict degree of compliance with this rule. The model applied on a sample of university students (N?=?398) demonstrated that the TPB components could significantly predict motorcycle riders’ behaviours and degree of compliance with DRHs law. Moreover, it would be of assistance to policy-makers to recognize groups of motorcyclists more likely to cause an increase in traffic accidents. In general, regular educational campaigns were recommended to raise awareness regarding consequences of not using DRHs and also to nurture factors influencing motorcyclists’ attitudes towards DRHs.     

A Multi-Model Nonstationary Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Framework: Analysis and Toolbox

Water Resources Management - We present a framework and toolbox for multi-model (one at a time) nonstationary modeling of rainfall-runoff (RR) transformation. The designed time-varying nature of...     

Reduction of stilling basin length with tall end sill

Experiments were conducted to characterize forced hydraulic jumps in stilling basins for enforced cases due to tail water level or dam site arrangement and construction.The case with a single tall sill was simulated in a horizontal flume downstream of a sluice gate.Results of experiments are compared with the classical hydraulic jump, and significant effect of tall sill on dissipation of energy in shorter distance was confirmed.Furthermore, the generated jumps were classified based on the ratio of sill height to basin length, and a simple design criterion was proposed to estimate the basin length for a desired jump and particular inflow.     

Optimal Water Allocation from Subsurface Dams: A Risk-Based Optimization Approach

Subsurface dams, strongly advocated in the 1992 United Nations Agenda-21, have been widely studied to increase groundwater storage capacity. However, an optimal allocation of augmented water with the construction of the subsurface dams to compensate for the water shortage during dry periods has not so far been investigated. This study, therefore, presents a risk-based simulation–optimization framework to determine optimal water allocation with subsurface dams, which minimizes the risk of water shortage in different climatic conditions. The developed framework was evaluated in Al-Aswad falaj, an ancient water supply system in which a gently sloping underground channel was dug to convey water from an aquifer via the gravity force to the surface for irrigation of downstream agricultural zones. The groundwater dynamics were modeled using MODFLOW UnStructured-Grid. The data of boreholes were used to generate a three-dimensional stratigraphic model, which was used to define materials and elevations of five-layer grid cells. The validated groundwater model was employed to assess the effects of the subsurface dam on the discharge of the falaj. A Conditional Value-at-Risk optimization model was also developed to minimize the risk of water shortage for the augmented discharge on downstream agricultural zones. Results show that discharge of the falaj is significantly augmented with a long-term average increase of 46.51%. Moreover, it was found that the developed framework decreases the water shortage percentage in 5% of the worst cases from 87%, 75%, and 32% to 53%, 32%, and 0% under the current and augmented discharge in dry, normal, and wet periods, respectively.

     

The Quest for Hydrological Signatures: Effects of Data Transformation on Bayesian Inference of Watershed Models

Hydrological models contain parameters, values of which cannot be directly measured in the field, and hence need to be meaningfully inferred through calibration against historical records. Although much progress has been made in the model inference literature, relatively little is known about the effects of transforming calibration data (or error residual) on the identifiability of model parameters and reliability of model predictions. Such effects are analyzed herein using two hydrological models and three watersheds. Our results depict that calibration data transformations significantly influence parameter and predictive uncertainty estimates. Those transformations that distort the temporal distribution of calibration data, such as flow duration curve, normal quantile transform, and Fourier transform, considerably deteriorate the identifiability of model parameters derived in a formal Bayesian framework with a residual-based likelihood function. Other transformations, such as wavelet, BoxCox and square root, while demonstrating some merits in identifying specific model parameters, would not consistently improve predictive capability of hydrological models in a single objective inverse problem. Multi-objective optimization schemes, however, may present a more rigorous basis to extract several independent pieces of information from different data transformations. Finally, data transformations might offer a greater potential to evaluate model performance and assess specific sections of model behavior, rather than to calibrate models in a single objective framework. Findings of this study shed light on the importance and impacts of data transformations in search of hydrological signatures.     

Water Resources Allocation Using Solution Concepts of Fuzzy Cooperative Games: Fuzzy Least Core and Fuzzy Weak Least Core

In this paper, two new solution concepts for fuzzy cooperative games, namely Fuzzy Least Core and Fuzzy Weak Least Core are developed. They aim for optimal allocation of available water resources and associated benefits to water users in a river basin. The results of these solution concepts are compared with the results of some traditional fuzzy and crisp games, namely Fuzzy Shapley Value, Crisp Shapley Value, Least Core, Weak Least Core and Normalized Nucleolus. It is shown that the proposed solution concepts are more efficient than the crisp games. Moreover, they do not have the limitation of Fuzzy Shapley Value in satisfying the group rationality criterion. This paper consists of two steps. In the first step, an optimization model is used for initial water allocation to stakeholders. In the second step, fuzzy coalitions are defined and participation rates of water users (players) in the fuzzy coalitions are optimized in order to reach a maximum net benefit. Then, the total net benefit is allocated to the players in a rational and equitable way using Fuzzy Least Core, Fuzzy Weak Least Core and some traditional fuzzy and crisp games. The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed methodology is examined using a numerical example and also applying it to the Karoon river basin in southern Iran.     

Comparing hazard models for the growth failure of children in Iran

One of the statistical methods deployed in medical sciences to investigate time to event data is the survival analysis. This study, comparing efficiency of some parametric and semiparametric survival models, aims at investigating the effect of demographic and socio-economic factors on the growth failure of children below 2 years of age in Iran. The survival models including exponential, Weibull, log-logistic and log-normal models were compared to proportional hazards and extended Cox models by Akaike Information Criterion and variability of the estimated parameters. Based on the results, the log-normal model is recommended for analyzing the growth failure data of children in Iran. Furthermore, it is suggested that female children, children born to illiterate mothers and children born in larger households receive more attention in terms of growth failure.