Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

When Do Qualitative Risk Disclosures Backfire? The Effects of a Mismatch in Hedge Disclosure Formats on Investors' Judgments

Disclosure standards mandate the quantitative disclosure of hedging‐instrument‐related risks but not the disclosure of hedged‐item‐related risks. We examine how a match (mismatch) in formats, caused by making quantitative (qualitative) hedged item disclosures alongside quantitative hedging instrument disclosures, affects investors' integration of information from these two related disclosures. Our first experiment varies the hedged item disclosure format (quantitative or qualitative) and the portion of risk hedged (small or large). We find that when disclosure formats are mismatched, the less comparable nature of the two disclosures caused investors to neglect the offsetting relationship when assessing net risks. As a result, risk and investment judgments were influenced by the more prominent quantitative hedging instrument disclosures. Our second experiment finds that the use of a qualitative debiaser that clarifies the relationship between the two disclosures led to the integration of information and mitigated this effect.     

六氟化硫断路器与真空断路器的特性分析

以目前电力系统广泛应用的六氟化硫断路器和真空断路器作为分析对象,从介质特性、结构特性和灭弧特性等几个方面详细介绍了各自的特点。结合运行经验,总结了六氟化硫断路器和真空断路器的优点和缺点。充分了解它们的特性以及优缺点,有助于更合理地选择高压断路器,在实际生产中进行更有效地运行和检修维护。     

浅谈参地开发中水土流失防治对策

本文通过对典型小流域内参地开发造成水土流失的分析,提出适合本区域操作的参地防治对策。     

县区电网电压无功控制系统设计

针对目前地区电网电压无功控制的现状,提出了电网电压无功监控系统的设计方案。说明优化控制系统应该实现的功能,选用线性规划(LP)算法为核心程序,正常状态下以有功网损最小为目标函数。依据分离原理提出两层分级控制的系统结构,分析优化控制系统的工作流程及特点。     

以旅游消费驱动区域旅游竞合--以长江三角洲构建无障碍旅游区为例

以长江三角洲构建中国首个无障碍旅游区为例，提出旅游消费再生性、强关联性、跨区域性等特性是促成旅游竞合的天然机理，论述了作为市场力量的旅游消费是催生区域旅游竞合机制，促成旅游企业竞合的重要推动力，最后提出构建旅游消费驱动下的长三角区域旅游竞合的对策。     

葡萄球菌肠毒素B抗肿瘤作用的实验研究

探讨了葡萄球菌肠毒素B(SEB)对动物移植性肿瘤的抑制作用。以小鼠移植性肿瘤肝癌(Heps)、L2网织细胞瘤和肉瘤180(S180)为模型,环磷酰胺为阳性对照组,生理盐水为阴性对照组,观察不同剂量(5、10和20ng·Kg-1·d-1)SEB的抗肿瘤作用。不同剂量的SEB对小鼠肝癌(Heps)有明显抑制作用,抑瘤率分别为44.6%、46.7%和51.8%(P值均<0.05),对小鼠L2网织细胞瘤也有一定的抑制作用,抑瘤率分别为17.4%、44.7%(P<0.05)和44.1%(P<0.05)。SEB对小鼠S180的抑制作用不显著。结论是葡萄球菌肠毒素B(SEB)具有抗肿瘤效应,可作为一种有前途的抗肿瘤制剂进行研究。     

工业设计人才培养体系的构建和优化

该文从现代企业的生产方式及工业设计师应具备的基本素质出发，阐述了21世纪工业设计专业人才的培养体系和培养模式及其特点，构建了培养工业设计应用型人才的课程体系。     

食用菌无公害、经济型保鲜技术研究进展

该文从食用菌保鲜的机理出发,对各种保鲜技术从有无公害、是否经济有效的角度进行了对比研究,以求得到既经济有效又无残留的食用菌保鲜技术,并对无公害食用菌发展的前景进行了分析。