Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价研究

知识互动程度评价对改善高校跨学科创新团队知识互动具有重要意义。在界定高校跨学科创新团队知识互动及知识互动程度内涵的基础上，创新性地从知识互动深度、互动广度、互动时间3个维度建立知识互动程度评价指标体系。进一步地，采用三角模糊权重、熵权和模糊积分相结合的方法，构建知识互动程度评价模型。最后，选取一所高校跨学科创新团队进行实例分析，验证评价模型的可操作性，可为高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价提供一个新视角。     

Class structure and inequality during the industrial revolution: lessons from England's social tables, 1688–1867

This article measures the size and incomes of six major social classes across the industrial revolution using social tables for England and Wales in 1688, 1759, 1798, 1846, and 1867. Lindert and Williamson famously revised these tables, and this article extends their work in three directions. First, servants are removed from middle‐ and upper‐class households in the tables of King, Massie, and Colquhoun and tallied separately. Second, estimates are made for the same tables of the number and incomes of women and children employed in the various occupations, and, third, incomes are broken down into rents, profits, and employment income. These extensions to the tables allow variables to be computed that can be checked against independent estimates as a validation exercise. The tables are retabulated in a standardized set of six social groups to highlight the changing structure of society across the industrial revolution. Gini coefficients are computed from the social tables to measure inequality. These measures confirm that Britain traversed a ‘Kuznets curve’ in this period. Changes in overall inequality are related to the changing fortunes of the major social classes.     

When Do Qualitative Risk Disclosures Backfire? The Effects of a Mismatch in Hedge Disclosure Formats on Investors' Judgments

Disclosure standards mandate the quantitative disclosure of hedging‐instrument‐related risks but not the disclosure of hedged‐item‐related risks. We examine how a match (mismatch) in formats, caused by making quantitative (qualitative) hedged item disclosures alongside quantitative hedging instrument disclosures, affects investors' integration of information from these two related disclosures. Our first experiment varies the hedged item disclosure format (quantitative or qualitative) and the portion of risk hedged (small or large). We find that when disclosure formats are mismatched, the less comparable nature of the two disclosures caused investors to neglect the offsetting relationship when assessing net risks. As a result, risk and investment judgments were influenced by the more prominent quantitative hedging instrument disclosures. Our second experiment finds that the use of a qualitative debiaser that clarifies the relationship between the two disclosures led to the integration of information and mitigated this effect.     

Demonstration of a tool for automatic learning and re-use of knowledge in the activated sludge process.

Wastewater treatment plant operators encounter complex operational problems related to the activated sludge process and usually respond to these by applying their own intuition and by taking advantage of what they have learnt from past experiences of similar problems. However, previous process experiences are not easy to integrate in numerical control, and new tools must be developed to enable re-use of plant operating experience. The aim of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to apply learning and re-use of knowledge gained during past incidents to confront actual complex problems through the IWA/COST Benchmark protocol. A case study shows that the proposed CBR system achieves a significant improvement of the benchmark plant performance when facing a high-flow event disturbance.     

Analysis of enterococci using portable testing equipment for developing countries--variance of Azide NutriDisk medium under variable time and temperature.

This report compares the enterococci count on samples obtained with Azide NutriDisk (AND) (sterile, dehydrated culture medium) and Slanetz and Bartley (SB) medium when exposed to a variable in incubation time and temperature. Three experiments were performed to examine the recovery of enterococci on AND and SB media using membrane filtration with respect to: (a) incubation time; (b) incubation temperature; and (c) a combination of the two. Presumptive counts were observed at 37, 41, 46 and 47 degrees C and at 20, 24, 28 and 48 h. These were compared to AWWA standard method 9230 C (44 degrees C, 44 h). Samples were confirmed using Kanamycin Aesculin Azide (KAA) agar. Friedman's ANOVA and Students t-test analysis indicated higher enumeration of enterococci when grown on AND (p = 0.45) than SB (p = < 0.001) at all temperatures with a survival threshold at 47 degrees C. Significant results for AND medium were noted at 20 h (p = 0.021), 24 h (p = 0.278) and 28 h (p = 0.543). The study concluded that the accuracy of the AND medium at a greater time and temperature range provided flexibility in incubator technology making it an appropriate alternative to SB medium for monitoring drinking water using field testing kits in developing countries.     

Enhancing urban infrastructure investment planning practices for a changing climate.

Climate change raises many concerns for urban water management because of the effects on all aspects of the hydrological cycle. Urban water infrastructure has traditionally been designed using historical observations and assuming stationary climatic conditions. The capability of this infrastructure, whether for storm-water drainage, or water supply, may be over- or under-designed for future climatic conditions. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will have the most acute effect on storm-water drainage systems. Therefore, it is necessary to take future climatic conditions into consideration in engineering designs in order to enhance water infrastructure investment planning practices in a long time horizon. This paper provides the initial results of a study that is examining ways to enhance urban infrastructure investment planning practices against changes in hydrologic regimes for a changing climate. Design storms and intensity-duration-frequency curves that are used in the engineering design of storm-water drainage systems are developed under future climatic conditions by empirically adjusting the general circulation model output, and using the Gumbel distribution and the Chicago method. Simulations are then performed on an existing storm-water drainage system from NE Calgary to investigate the resiliency of the system under climate change.     

Benchmark simulation Model no 2 in Matlab-simulink: towards plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation.

In this paper, implementation of the Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2) within Matlab-Simulink is presented. The BSM2 is developed for plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation on a long-term basis. It consists of a pre-treatment process, an activated sludge process and sludge treatment processes. Extended evaluation criteria are proposed for plant-wide control strategy assessment. Default open-loop and closed-loop strategies are also proposed to be used as references with which to compare other control strategies. Simulations indicate that the BM2 is an appropriate tool for plant-wide control strategy evaluation.