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1.
David G. McMillan 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(5):557-573
Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non‐linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns. This paper examines whether an exponential smooth transition threshold model, which is capable of capturing this non‐linear behaviour, can provide a better characterization of UK stock market returns than either a linear model or an alternate non‐linear model. The results of both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample specification tests support the exponential smooth transition threshold model and hence the belief that investor behaviour does differ between large and small returns. 相似文献
2.
Carsten Detken Alistair Dieppe Jérôme Henry Frank Smets & Carmen Marin 《Australian economic papers》2002,41(4):404-436
On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euro's equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the 'Rest of the World' is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights.
We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level. 相似文献
We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level. 相似文献
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Extant empirical research has reported nonlinear behavior within arbitrage relationships. In this article, the authors consider potential nonlinear dynamics within FTSE‐100 index and index‐futures. Such nonlinearity can be rationalized by the existence of transactions costs or through the interaction between informed and noise traders. They consider several empirical models designed to capture these alternative dynamics. Their empirical results provide evidence of a stationary basis term, and thus cointegration between index and index‐futures, and the presence of nonlinear dynamics within that relationship. The results further suggest that noise traders typically engage in momentum trading and are more prone to this behavior type when the underlying market is rising. Fundamental, or arbitrage, traders are characterized by heterogeneity, such that there is slow movement between regimes of behavior. In particular, fundamental traders act more quickly in response to small deviations from equilibrium, but are reluctant to act quickly in response to larger mispricings that are exposed to greater noise trader price risk. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:343–368, 2006 相似文献
5.
Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save
lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved
by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower
for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and
France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol.
Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The
VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency
room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities
of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We
use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a
loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000. 相似文献
6.
A REVIEW OF BOOKS ON RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alistair Ulph 《Bulletin of economic research》1989,41(3):219-219
7.
This paper analyses the impact of environmental liability regimes on the capital structure of firms. We show that imposing environmental liability only on polluting firms, with limited liability, increases use of bank debt. Extending environmental liability to banks lowers bank borrowing relative to liability only on firms, with an ambiguous effect relative to no liability. Using US industry-level data we estimate a reduced-form model of bank borrowing by firms and show that the introduction of environmental liability only on firms increased bank borrowing by 15–20%, but when liability was extended to banks, borrowing returned to a level slightly higher than with no liability. 相似文献
8.
To gain a better understanding of online brand communities, this study has examined why people joined in online brand communities and whether there were some differences in the motivations of Internet users based on different cultures. Open-ended questions were asked to the community members from both South Korean Automobile Online Brand Communities (KAOBC) and American Automobile Online Brand Communities (AAOBC) in the first stage and then generated and utilized an online survey for the study. The study found that KAOBC members tended to have a stronger social network, business, and communication motivations than AAOBC members. As a primary motivation, information seeking is the strongest motivation for members of both KAOBC and AAOBC. They had a similar level of information motivation. 相似文献
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10.
Alistair Brown 《公共资金与管理》2021,41(1):55-64
ABSTRACT Using the theory of indigenous alternatives and a benchmark of indigenous financial reporting expectations, this paper examines the challenges to accountable governance of the nine provincial governments of the Solomon Islands for the years 1998 to 2017. Every provincial government consistently received disclaimed or qualified opinions from the state auditor. The author explains why the regional development of all provinces of the Solomon Islands could be improved if rudimentary forms of financial reporting were to be addressed. 相似文献