Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment

In this paper we use an error correction model for understanding the changes in real office rents for a panel of 15 U.S. MSA’s over the period 1990-2007. We find that office rents in all cities react positively to a rise in office employment and lagged rent changes, while lagged deviations from equilibrium rent levels exhibit a slow and partial adjustment over time. Given the non-negativity constraint of vacancy rates we extend the basic model by examining whether rents react to positive changes in employment conditional on the vacancy rate level. Our results show that office rents react significantly stronger to increases in employment when vacancy rates are below the long-term average. We also repeat the analysis for clusters of cities based on similarities in rent and employment dynamics using multi dimensional scaling. The cluster results confirm the overall conclusions and show that our results are not solely valid for the full panel of cities.     

Energy efficiency and household behavior: the rebound effect in the residential sector

This article investigates the rebound effect in residential heating, using a sample of 563,000 households in the Netherlands. Using instrumental variable and fixed‐effects approaches, we address potential endogeneity concerns. The results show a rebound effect of 26.7% among homeowners, and 41.3% among tenants. We corroborate the findings through a quasiexperimental analysis, using a large retrofit subsidy program. We also document significant heterogeneity in the rebound effect, determined by household wealth and income, and the actual energy use intensity. The findings in this article confirm the important role of household behavior in determining the outcomes of energy efficiency improvement programs.     

Residential energy use and conservation: Economics and demographics

Energy consumption in the residential sector offers an important opportunity for conserving resources. However, much of the current debate regarding energy efficiency in the housing market focuses on the physical and technical determinants of energy consumption, neglecting the role of the economic behavior of resident households. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which the use of gas and electricity is determined by the technical specifications of the dwelling as compared to the demographic characteristics of the residents. Our analysis is based on a sample of more than 300,000 Dutch homes and their occupants. The results indicate that residential gas consumption is determined principally by structural dwelling characteristics, such as the vintage, building type, and characteristics of the dwelling, while electricity consumption varies more directly with household composition, in particular income and family composition. Combining these results with projections on future economic and demographic trends, we find that, even absent price increases for residential energy, the aging of the population and their increasing wealth will roughly offset improvements in the energy efficiency of the building stock resulting from policy interventions and natural revitalization.     

Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from the British,French and Swedish Property Share Markets

This paper investigates the underpricing and long-run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs), using a unique sample consisting of 54 British, French and Swedish property companies, which became publicly listed during the period 1984–1999. Similar to common stock IPOs, the European property share IPOs in our sample outperformed the benchmark on the first day of trading, on average with 2.55 percent. However, these property share IPOs tend to underperform their benchmark over the twelve-month period subsequent to the initial offering. We also examine explanatory factors such as issue size, the degree of debt financing, ex-ante uncertainty, and the underlying property types of the companies involved. The results are in line with those previously found for common stocks.     

Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long‐Run Evidence, 1814–2008

This article examines the inflation hedging capacity of the private home. We employ unique long‐term data for inflation, house price dynamics and rents for Amsterdam dating back to 1814, allowing us to study total housing returns in different inflation regimes and for varying investment horizons. Our Amsterdam data show that homeownership's protection against actual and expected inflation increases with the investment horizon. This increase is especially strong for horizons up to 10 years. Inflation protection from housing is stronger when inflation is persistent, and the hedging capacities of housing regarding unexpected inflation are weak.     

Development Involvement and Property Share Performance: International Evidence

This paper concerns the dilemma whether regulators should preclude tax-exempt property investment companies from engaging in property development activities. We analyze the economic effects of combinations of property investment and property development by looking at the performance of an international set of property investment companies with varying degrees of involvement in property development. We study the five most important listed property markets in the world: the United States, Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom and France. We examine the extent to which property investment companies participate in development projects by dividing the book value of their development projects by total assets. These development ratios yield remarkable differences both within and across national samples, with national averages varying between 2.23 percent for the United States and 21.34 percent for our Hong Kong sample. Analysis of property share performance yields results that consistently indicate that the cluster of property companies most involved in development projects is associated with both the highest total return and the highest systematic risk. We also find a weak positive link between development involvement and the Jensen alpha of property shares. The statistical significance of this link varies by country, with strong results for Hong Kong and Australia and less compelling results for the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Besides analyzing the stock performance of the companies in our samples we also focus on their operational profitability. Again, we consistently find both the highest and most volatile performance for companies actively participating in property development projects.     

The Effect of Clustering on Office Rents: Evidence from the Amsterdam Market

This article examines the rent effects of office clustering in the Amsterdam office market for the period 2000–2005. We isolate the rent effects of location density based on geographic information system (GIS) methodology, while controlling for variations in object characteristics in a cross-sectional hedonic model. While controlling for the age, location and quality of the object, we find a strong positive effect of being located in dense office areas. We find that the vicinity of other office objects is priced into rent levels, regardless of market conditions. This article extends existing literature by examining the influence of clustering outside the United States, during changing economic tides and by application of novel methodology, based on objective clustering schemes, which can be replicated for other geographic areas.     

Calendar Anomalies: The Case of International Property Shares

In this paper we analyze the price dynamics of international property shares for the ten most prominent markets from around the world plus South-Africa. We focus on the presence of calendar effects in daily and monthly price returns and examine these effects both over time and across countries. For the daily returns we find price anomalies for Fridays and Mondays in all markets. Friday returns tend to be the highest of the week, while Mondays are weakest. We find that these patterns were most prominent during the 1980s and early 1990s and in the smaller markets in our sample. For the monthly returns we found little evidence for price irregularities. In most cases January was superior to most other months, but these differences lacked statistical significance. More interesting was the sell in May effect that seemed to be present in ten out of 11 markets. Price returns during the winter season outperformed the summer months and in five countries these difference were both economically and statistically significant. Finally, we looked at firm level returns to isolate the drivers of these infamous calendar effects. The day-of-the-week effect appears to be most pronounced among small and young firms that have little or no institutional investors. Large and long-established listed real estate firms with a large portion of loyal block-holders experience no significant price patterns during the trading week.

Short Sales and Fundamental Value: Explaining the REIT Premium to NAV

This study explores the role of short sale constraints in explaining the variation in premiums to Net Asset Value (NAV) in REIT pricing. We use proprietary information on short sales between June 2006 and September 2008 to examine how short sales and short sale constraints affect the variation in monthly REIT NAV premiums using panel vector autoregression models. We find that variation in short sale activity across individual REITs can account for at least one‐third of the variation in NAV premiums. Short sale constraints tend to be binding when there is strong demand and limited supply of shares to short. Excess demand leads to overvaluation and the correction of the overvaluation explains the under‐performance of premium REITs.     

Local Office Rent Dynamics

This study applies rent adjustment models for ten major European office markets. We capture long-run equilibrium relationships of demand and supply variables and their short-term corrections in a two equation error correction model. We test whether the local nature of office markets makes a model based on national economics inaccurate if local and national markets do not move in tandem. For this we employ a unique dataset, which includes both disaggregated and national variables to model changes in real prime rents for a group of premier and second tier office market cities across Europe for the period 1990–2006. We explicitly compare results that are derived from models that include different levels of geographic aggregation. Results of the two stage error correction model indicate that international office rents adjust to short-run changes in office related economic activity, lagged rent changes, and to the deviation of rents from their long-run values. At the same time our results offer no proof that error correction mechanism models for office rents improve significantly by specifying economic growth figures beyond the national aggregated level for the cities included in our analysis.