Analysis of the Efficacy of Public Spending on Research and Development in State Programs

This paper presents an approach to assessing the efficacy of public spending on research and development in state programs. At present, there is a need to develop a unified approach to the analysis and evaluation of the efficacy of such spending from the perspective of participants in state programs (federal executive bodies). The proposed approach does not allow evaluating the efficacy of public spending on the development of research areas assigned to the authors.     

基层部队装备在役考核组织实施方法研究

当前,装备在役考核还处于探索起步阶段,针对基层部队在役考核"考什么""怎么考"等问题进行了思考,主要从在役考核准备、组织实施、总结分析三个方面阐述基层部队如何组织实施装备在役考核,为下一步基层部队开展装备在役考工作提供了理论依据.     

Entry limiting agreements: First‐mover advantage,authorized generics,and pay‐for‐delay deals

During patent litigation, pay‐for‐delay (P4D) deals involve a payment from a patent holder of a branded drug to a generic drug manufacturer to delay entry and withdraw the patent challenge. In return for staying out of the market, the generic firm receives a payment, and/or an authorized licensed entry at a later date, but before the patent expiration. We examine why such deals are stable when there are multiple potential entrants. We combine the first‐mover advantage for the first generic with the ability of the branded manufacturer to launch an authorized generic (AG) to show when P4D deals are an equilibrium outcome. We further show that limiting a branded firm's ability to launch an AG before entry by a successful challenger will deter such deals. However, removing exclusivity period for the first generic challenger will not.     

Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a fundamental value

This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency Bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining Bitcoin prices, challenging recent allegations that Bitcoins are essentially worthless. Even with markets pricing Bitcoin in the thousands of dollars each, the valuation model seems robust. The data show that a price bubble that began in the Fall of 2017 resolved itself in early 2018, converging with the marginal cost model. This suggests that while bubbles may appear in the Bitcoin market, prices will tend to this bound and not collapse to zero.     

出口、贸易成本和专利出海

作为一种重要的知识产权形式,专利为创新产品中无形资产的专有权利提供了正式保障,是推动中国制造业全球价值链上移的重要手段.近年来,中国企业在海外市场面临的知识产权纠纷日渐增多.在此背景下,布局海外专利对保障中国企业高质量"走出去"参与全球竞争的重要性日益凸显,但关于中国专利出海的研究较为鲜见.基于2001-2018年国民经济行业大类层面的出口和专利申请数据,本文考察了出口对中国海外专利布局的影响.结果显示,制造业出口显著地推动了中国在海外专利申请数量的增长.进一步的研究表明,地理距离在其中表现出调节作用且在制度维度上表现出异质性.具体而言,在知识产权保护强度较高的国家,地理距离会进一步放大出口对海外专利申请数量的促进作用;而在遗传距离和文化距离邻近的国家,地理距离则表现出负向调节作用.另外,"一带一路"倡议也促进了出口对中国专利出海的影响.在当前全球贸易环境较为动荡和中国出口产品努力走向全球价值链中高端的背景下,本文的经验证据对推动中国以专利为代表的无形资产海外布局有一定的启示和参考.     

Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data

We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We suggest copulas for first‐order Markov series, and then extend them to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence, including co‐movement and spillover in multivariate series. In general, these depend upon the marginal distributions of the series. Using exchange rate returns, we show that the resulting copula models can capture their marginal distributions more accurately than univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, and produce more accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts.     

互联网下高校外卖物流配送的现状与发展

随着互联网的快速发展,我国的手机愈发成为一部掌上电脑,通过手机进行外卖订餐已经成为现代高校大学生的日常状态,外卖的物流配送大大改变了学生的生活饮食方式。但是高校周围的外卖物流配送也容易导致很多问题,影响大学生的生活。针对高校外卖的特殊性,文章以互联网下逐渐形成的O2O模式来研究高校外卖物流配送的现状与发展,并且针对存在的问题提出相关建议。     

基于GA-BP神经网络的通信卫星效能评估模型研究

卫星通信作为未来联合行动的重要通信手段,其运用效能对联合行动的影响重大.该研究以通信卫星运用效能研究为切入点,通过对关键问题进行树状分解,建立了包含35个指标的通信卫星运用效能评估指标体系,基于GA-BP(Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation)神经网络方法,构建了通信卫星运用效能评估模型.通过实际卫星工作过程中产生的数据对所建立的模型进行了验证,证明了该模型能够有效地评估通信卫星的运用效能.