Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

The power of quality models: The example of the SIQ model for performance excellence

Most contemporary total quality management (TQM) practice is influenced, directly or indirectly, by structured, acontextual and standardized quality models. The present paper focuses on the strategic introduction of one such model, namely the Swedish Institute for Quality (SIQ) model for performance excellence, in a Swedish public-sector organization, which we refer to as ‘the Authority.’ We take our theoretical stance from Foucault's concept of ‘power/knowledge.’ In describing the case, we focus on the management team of one of the Authority's ten regions. Our analysis shows the members of the management team using the SIQ model to objectify both the organization and themselves as managers. However, contrary to many critical or managerial accounts, the SIQ model was not totalizing: management subjectivities changed but were not entirely reconstituted, and some resistance to them was generated by the members of the management team, in their role as professionals.     

Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.     

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework

This paper deals with the past, present and future of backcasting. After having reviewed the origin and developments since the 1970s, it is concluded that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realising follow-up and implementation. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible. The paper reports on two cases in which participatory backcasting was applied, the Novel Protein Foods project at the Sustainable Technology Programme in the Netherlands and the Nutrition case study of the Sustainable Households (SusHouse) project. The paper concludes that these have resulted in broad stakeholder involvement, sustainable future visions, analyses and construction of follow-up agendas, but that follow-up and impacts are quite different. A research agenda is proposed to compare and evaluate backcasting studies and their impacts after a couple of years, while the future of participatory backcasting is also briefly discussed.     

The Dynamics of Negotiation in a Global Inter-Organizational Network: Findings from the Air Transport and Travel Industry

Networks of interdependent organizations, also known as network-based businesses, are being shaped by many forces. In supporting negotiations between the airlines and travel agencies locked in a principle/agent relationship wrought with tension, this paper uncovers the dynamics of negotiating in a global inter-organizational network. It provides guidelines for supporting such negotiations. Networks, as a form of interorganizational co-ordination, are becoming increasingly predominant. Knowledge on how to facilitate negotiations in global inter-organizational networks will become more valuable.     

Flexible labour market and trade unions: Surprising career paths of Dutch sub-Saharan Africans

Starting from the empirical evidence that minorities are more likely to work on flexible contracts, we investigated the existence of an ethnic gap in flexible contracts between the native Dutch population and sub-Saharan African immigrants between 2006 and 2012. The migrant group is taken as a test case of ‘outsiders’. This study found, quite surprisingly and contrary to what several theories predict, that the expected ethnic gap in job status between the two groups disappeared in the 6 years between 2006 and 2012. Many sub-Saharan Africans successfully transformed their flexible contracts into permanent ones, catching up with the native Dutch by 2012. The analysis of the statutory provisions showed that the workforce numerical composition in the cleaning industry was important for the inclusiveness of sub-Saharan immigrants. This numerical compositional effect was facilitated by the collective agreements negotiated by trade unions, agreements that were extended to temp workers. Sub-Saharan Africans, overrepresented in the cleaning industry, have benefited disproportionally from the settled agreements. We thus conclude that trade unions can improve the inclusion of migrants not only by explicitly focusing on migrant representation but also by targeting sectors with an overrepresentation of migrants.     

The contextualization of human resource and quality management: a sensemaking perspective on everybody's involvement

The principal idea of this paper is that human resource management (HRM) and quality management (QM) ideas require contextualization when used to change organizations. Here, contextualization stands for the process that leads to a shared meaning, i.e. the majority of the co-workers in an organization understand and define a concept or change in terms that are shared and accepted. In the present paper, we study a strategic change project, based on HRM and QM ideas, conducted at the County Council of Värmland (CCV), the public healthcare authority in the County of Värmland in Sweden, where the focus was on everybody's involvement. Our interpretation of the project shows that a shared meaning of the concept of everybody's involvement was not reached in this particular case, i.e. contextualization did not occur. One important result of the study is that contextualization is a prerequisite for realizing HRM and QM thoughts. The paper also stresses how important it is that general and ‘non-contextualized’ HRM and QM ideas are adapted to local practices when used to direct organizational change.     

Rethinking Love at the Office: Antecedents and Consequences of Coworker Evaluations of Workplace Romances

Researchers have pointed out a wide variety of organizational effects attributable to workplace romances, concluding that the impact of such romances on the workgroup can range from positive to negative. To date, however, little research has attempted to pinpoint the elements leading to this divergence. We suggest that coworker evaluation of a romance or anticipatory injustice may play a key role in influencing the positive or negative impact of the relationship on the workgroup at large. Our model proposes that three separate mechanisms (procedural fairness, intragroup cognitive dissonance, and normative adjustment), each corresponding to a different domain of evaluation, may mediate the apparent relationship between coworker evaluation of a romance and various aspects of group performance. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche

This paper reports on a study that has systematically investigated the follow-up and spin-off of participatory backcasting experiments in the Netherlands five to ten years after completion. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is presented, after which a conceptual framework is developed to describe and evaluate the impact of backcasting experiments. Three cases are analysed: (1) Novel Protein Foods and meat alternatives; (2) Sustainable Household Nutrition; and (3) Multiple Sustainable Land-use in rural areas. The cases show that participatory backcasting can lead to substantial follow-up and spin-off, but that is not always the case. Substantial follow-up and spin-off after five to ten years is predominantly found at the level of niches, and can be seen as potential seeds for future system innovations. The emergence of follow-up and spin-off comes along with the diffusion of the visions generated in the backcasting experiment. The visions provide orientation (where to go) and guidance (what to do). Visions also show both stability and flexibility. Factors that influence the extent of impact and spin-off of backcasting are identified, with a focus on stakeholders, learning and visions. Finally, relevance for system innovation theory, governance and policy as well as research recommendations are briefly discussed.