Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

生命周期评价方法及其应用

介绍了生命周期评价的目的、意义和基本方法，并运用该方法对燃煤发电、废纸造纸、废旧塑料气化发电等几种不同工业过程的环境影响进行了分析。     

谈谈情，跳跳舞

上半身保持不动．据说这样体现了西班牙人的高贵．腰胯部的扭动则来源于热情奔放的非洲。而腿脚的动作印证着印第安人的文化。     

金融资产管理公司转型研究

我国金融资产管理公司最适合的发展方向，是积极向现代投资银行转型，这是因为金融资产管理公司与现代投资银行有几乎相同的业务范围和相似的运营模式；金融资产管理公司转变为现代投资银行后，将会有更广阔的发展空间。     

永乐家电能否“永乐”京城

上海家电连锁大鄂永乐家电在经过两年筹划之后于6月18日正式登陆北京．开设了在北京的第一家店。永乐家电董事长陈晓说：“如果不拿下北京与广东的市场，永乐就谈不上是全国性的连锁。“陈晓的这番话让我们看出永乐进入北京的决心，但永乐究竟是“永乐”京城还是永乐自身，是包括像国美、苏宁这样大的家电连锁企业所共同关心的问题。     

关于建立中小企业政策性银行的思考

中国政府已将中小企业发展列为施政重点,希望以此来刺激需求和创造更多的就业机会。但以民营企业为主的广大中小企业在获得金融服务和资金融通方面面临困难。本文从建立政策性银行的理论依据、国外经验借鉴等方面进行分析,论证了建立中小企业政策性银行的可行性,提出了设立实施的基本构想。     

澳大利亚高等职业技术教育的管理及借鉴

澳大利亚的技术与继续教育已经形成了开放和比较完善的体系,在国际上享有一定的声誉,是其教育出口的重要内容之一。本文分析了澳大利亚高等职业技术教育管理的现状和特点,并提出了对我国的高等职业技术教育发展的一些借鉴。     

农村信用社发展的困境及纾解方案

农村信用社发展面临的障碍是:产权关系不明确,产权形式不规范;资源结构不合理;基础设施落后;结算渠道单一,汇路不畅;劳动用工制度僵化,员工素质低下.应通过深化改革,加强管理,加大政策扶植力度来解决.     

明清古村——朱家峪

从济南市区沿济王公路东行约50公里,在秀水之阳胡山之阴有一个已有600多年历史的明清古村——朱家峪。 朱家峪,现辖属章丘市官庄乡。考章丘市地名志,小村曾数易其名。明洪武初年,朱氏家族始祖朱良盛携家眷自河北枣强迁到该村。因朱是国姓,即与明太祖