Can Optimism be a Remedy for Present Bias?

Under economies with hyperbolic preferences, vast research has investigated welfare‐improving tax policies to resolve capital misallocation issues. In this paper, we suggests an alternative channel to overcome a form of this issue associated with consumer's present bias—optimism, as defined by overexpectation of future productivity. We show that even though optimism negatively impacts consumers under normal circumstances, a moderate level of it can be beneficial when consumers have hyperbolic preferences. On the other hand, pessimism always negatively impacts consumer welfare. A steady‐state analysis shows that the quantitative impact of optimism on welfare can be sizable.     

THE AUSTRALIAN FIREARMS BUYBACK AND ITS EFFECT ON GUN DEATHS

The 1996-1997 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australia introduced strict gun laws, primarily as a reaction to the mass shooting in Port Arthur, Tasmania, in 1996, where 35 people were killed. Despite the fact that several researchers using the same data have examined the impact of the NFA on firearm deaths, a consensus does not appear to have been reached. In this paper, we reanalyze the same data on firearm deaths used in previous research, using tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identifying impacts of the NFA. The results of these tests suggest that the NFA did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates. (JEL C22, K19)     

Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings

We find that firms mitigate refinancing risk by increasing their cash holdings and saving cash from cash flows. The maturity of firms’ long‐term debt has shortened markedly, and this shortening explains a large fraction of the increase in cash holdings over time. Consistent with the inference that cash reserves are particularly valuable for firms with refinancing risk, we document that the value of these reserves is higher for such firms and that they mitigate underinvestment problems. Our findings imply that refinancing risk is a key determinant of cash holdings and highlight the interdependence of a firm's financial policy decisions.