Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?

We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak rationality' recently proposed by Grant and Thomas (1999). They are also rational proxy predictors of direction for, following Merton (1981), agents would not change their prior in the opposite direction to these `forecasts'. However, smoother HP `forecasts' are more prone to inefficiency and less useful predictors of direction. First Version Received: May 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

Debt valuation, renegotiation, and optimal dividend policy

The valuation of debt and equity, reorganization boundaries,and firm's optimal dividend policies are studied in a frameworkwhere we model strategic interactions between debt holders andequity holders in a game-theoretic setting which can accommodatevarying bargaining powers to the two claimants. Two formulationsof reorganization are presented: debt-equity swaps and strategicdebt service resulting from negotiated debt service reductions.We study the effects of bond covenants on payout policies anddistinguish liquidity-induced defaults from strategic defaults.We derive optimal equity issuance and payout policies. The debtcapacity of the firm and the optimal capital structure are characterized.     

A Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads

This article provides a Markov model for the term structureof credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull(1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete statespace Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of thisprocess are easily estimated using observable data. This modelis useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbeddedoptions, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterpartyrisk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subjectto default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), for pricing and hedgingcredit derivatives, and for risk management.     

Scanner Data and the Measurement of Inflation

This paper outlines the potential use of bar-code scanner data from retailers for the measurement of inflation. The source benefits from its extensive coverage in providing data on prices, quantities and values of transactions of each model of a good sold. Relative weights can thus be ascribed to price changes in both base and current months at a highly detailed level which allows us to estimate substitution bias. Methods of adjusting for quality changes can be considered. The dummy variable hedonic approach is compared with a superlative, exact hedonic approach and a matching technique akin to that used by statistical offices.     

Autoregressive Conditional Kurtosis

This article proposes a new model for autoregressive conditionalheteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degreesof freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditionalkurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model usesonly the standard Student’s t-density and consequentlycan be estimated simply using maximum likelihood. The methodis applied to a set of four daily financial asset return seriescomprising U.S. and U.K. stocks and bonds, and significant evidencein favor of the presence of autoregressive conditional kurtosisis observed. Various extensions to the basic model are proposed,and we show that the response of kurtosis to good and bad newsis not significantly asymmetric.     

Determinants of corporate social and environmental reporting in Hong Kong: a research note

The patterns and determinants of corporate social and environmental disclosure (CSED) in Hong Kong (HK) are examined by analysing 154 annual reports of 33 HK listed companies from 1993 to 1997. The research finds that industry difference has an impact on the amount, content theme and location of CSED. There is a positive correlation between company size and the level of CSED. Utility companies disclose more CSED than property and banking firms.     

Using Scanner Data to Estimate Country Price Parities: A Hedonic Regression Approach

This paper uses scanner data from the bar-code readers of retailers to provide estimates of inter-country price parities at the level of the basic heading. The use of such data is appealing given its extensive coverage of transactions, information on weights, prices and characteristics of items at a highly detailed level. The study uses dummy variable hedonic and exact/superlative hedonic index number formulations applied to an inter-country context for both bilateral and multilateral comparisons. Unlike conventional methods, such methods are not confined to matched samples comparisons and thus make use of the entire sample. Their application extends to price survey data using checklists on characteristics. The application is to scanner data on about 1 million transactions for television sets over two months in three countries. It is, to the authors' knowledge, the first such use of scanner data and application of the above hedonic frameworks in this context.     

Weighted symmetric tests for a unit root: response functions,power, test dependence and test conflict

The most frequently applied test statistics for a unit root are the Dickey–Fuller tests, which are built into many econometric packages along with MacKinnon's empirical response functions. This article provides empirical response functions for some easy to compute alternative test statistics that are generally much more powerful than the Dickey–Fuller tests; specifically, these are the Dickey–Fuller tests and the weighted symmetric versions of the and tests. The empirical response functions presented here take into account adjustments for lag length in the maintained regression, and also extend the design of the simulation experiments compared to previous work. A second aspect of this study concerns the widespread practice in applied econometrics of using more than one test for the same feature without an assessment of the implications for the cumulative significance level and probability of test conflict. Tests for a unit root being are a leading example of this practice. Using the extended set of unit root tests considered here, the extent of test dependence is simulated and overall type one error calculated. Two empirical applications illustrate the key principles.     

The extent and magnitude of formalin adulteration in fish sold in domestic markets of Bangladesh: a literature review

Bangladesh has been suffering from rampant food adulteration for the last few decades. Dishonest businessmen use formalin illegally as preservative to prevent spoilage and increase shelf‐life of fish. Prolonged consumption of formalin adulterated fish may cause serious health hazards (i.e. cancers) which lead to increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of the review was to examine the extent and magnitude of illegal formalin treatment in fish sold in domestic markets of Bangladesh. A systematic review was conducted using conventional databases and non‐conventional approaches to identify the relevant studies. Out of nine studies, eight confirmed the presence of formalin in fish collected from the markets of four main cities. Large and imported fishes were found to be mainly affected. Formalin adulterated fish was reported in seven studies. The fish were tested using a locally developed kit, and the amount of formalin treated fish ranged between 0.5 and 50%. Two other studies used the spectrophotometric method and reported specific formalin levels. The study conducted in Dhaka found mean levels of formalin to be 402.35 mg/kg in imported fishes and 118.60 mg/kg in local fishes which were much higher than the WHO recommended levels. In another study conducted in Mymensingh, formalin levels ranged between 1.4 and 7.3 mg/kg in both marketed and freshly caught pond fishes. The use of accurate, simple, specific and sensitive techniques is therefore highly recommended. The government and other agencies should address the issue as a priority basis by formulating effective policies and programs to safeguard the health of the public.     

The vices and virtues of consumption choices: price promotion and consumer decision making

As consumers exhibit relatively more self-control over healthy products by limiting the purchase quantity of vice choices and buying more virtue choices to adhere to healthy-eating goals, a price promotion has a stronger effect on virtue than vice choices of healthy food. In contrast, consumers exhibit relatively less self-control over unhealthy products and evaluate price promotions as a persuasive temptation mechanism; thus, a price promotion has a stronger effect on vice than virtue choices of unhealthy food. The results of the empirical analyses provide support for these hypotheses.