Notes on Multiperiod Valuation and the Pricing of Options

A mean-variance risk-return tradeoff relationship is derived for the diffusion process limiting case of a state-preference model, with aggregate consumption serving as a pivotal variable. The model is compared to other recent models along the dimensions of generality and tractable implementation. The incorporation of stochastic interest rates in general equilibrium and arbitrage-based valuation models is examined, and an extension to earlier methods is discussed, in connection with the implementation of “robust” general valuation procedures.     

Information Complementarities and the Dynamics of Transparency Shock Spillovers

We show that information complementarities play an important role in the spillover of transparency shocks. We exploit the revelation of financial misconduct by S&P 500 firms, and in a “Stacked Difference-in-Differences” design, find that the implied cost of capital increases for “close” industry peers of the fraudulent firms relative to “distant” industry peers. The spillover effect is particularly strong when the close peers and the fraudulent firm share common analyst coverage and common institutional ownership, which have been shown to be powerful proxies for fundamental linkages and information complementarities. We provide evidence that increase in the cost of capital of peer firms is due, at least in part, to “beta shocks.” Disclosure by close peers—especially those with co-coverage and co-ownership links—also increases following fraud revelation. Although disclosure remains high in the following years, the cost of equity starts to decrease.     

Buyer–Supplier Relationships and the Stakeholder Theory of Capital Structure

Firms in bilateral relationships are likely to produce or procure unique products—especially when they are in durable goods industries. Consistent with the arguments of Titman and Titman and Wessels, such firms are likely to maintain lower leverage. We compile a database of firms' principal customers (those that account for at least 10% of sales or are otherwise considered important for business) from the Business Information File of Compustat and find results consistent with the predictions of this theory.     

The Effect of Tax Convexity on Corporate Investment Decisions and Tax Burdens

This paper examines the effect of convexity in the corporate tax schedule on corporate investment decisions and tax burdens. Using a contingent‐claims model, we show that greater tax convexity results in (i) earlier exit, (ii) delayed investment (except for small entry cost), and (iii) reduced corporate risk taking (except for small entry cost and unfavorable operating conditions). Also, the effective tax burden is an increasing function of tax convexity. The convexity of the tax schedule has a nontrivial impact on corporate investment decisions and investment levels. These results are relevant for economic growth, which depends (at least partly) on investment levels, and tax policy makers should be aware of these effects when making adjustments that might impact the convexity of the corporate tax schedule.     

Integration of a Financial Literacy Curriculum in a High School Economics Class: Implications of Varying the Input Mix from an Experiment

We taught a mere seven‐period financial literacy curriculum to two 12th grade economics classes, where one treatment was Financial Fitness for Life^® (FFFL)‐intensive and the other was “stock market learning” (SML)‐intensive. Two control groups received no financial literacy treatment—an 11th grade group with no exposure to economics and a 12th grade economics class. The 12th grade economics classes, i.e., the two treatment groups and one control group, also worked on identical stock market portfolio assignments that their teachers required independently of our curriculum. In a test of overall financial knowledge, the FFFL‐intensive group outscored both control groups and the SML‐intensive groups, even on questions that were not taught in our curriculum. We conclude that an FFFL‐intensive input mix was beneficial in directly adding to financial knowledge and also in terms of leading to spillovers in such knowledge.     

On Timing and Selectivity

The dichotomy between timing ability and the ability to select individual assets has been widely used in discussing investment performance measurement. This paper discusses the conceptual and econometric problems associated with defining and measuring timing and selectivity. In defining these notions we attempt to capture their intuitive interpretation. We offer two basic modeling approaches, which we term the portfolio approach and the factor approach. We show how the quality of timing and selectivity information can be identified statistically in a number of simple models, and discuss some of the econometric issues associated with these models. In particular, a simple quadratic regression is shown to be valid in measuring timing information.     

Analyst Coverage and Financing Decisions

We provide evidence that analyst coverage affects security issuance. First, firms covered by fewer analysts are less likely to issue equity as opposed to debt. They issue equity less frequently, but when they do so, it is in larger amounts. Moreover, these firms depend more on favorable market conditions for their equity issuance decisions. Finally, debt ratios of less covered firms are more affected by Baker and Wurgler's (2002) “external finance‐weighted” average market‐to‐book ratio. These results are consistent with market timing behavior associated with information asymmetry, as well as behavior implied by dynamic adverse selection models of equity issuance.     

Conflicting Family Values in Mutual Fund Families

We analyze the investment behavior of affiliated funds of mutual funds (AFoMFs), which are mutual funds that can only invest in other funds in the family, and are offered by most large families. Though never mentioned in any prospectus, we discover that AFoMFs provide an insurance pool against temporary liquidity shocks to other funds in the family. We show that, though the family benefits because funds can avoid fire sales, the cost of this insurance is borne by the investors in the AFoMFs. The paper thus uncovers some of the hidden complexities of fiduciary responsibility in mutual fund families.     

Target Behavior and Financing: How Conclusive Is the Evidence?

The notion that firms have a debt ratio target that is a primary determinant of financing behavior is influential in finance. Yet, how definitive is the evidence? We address this issue by generating samples where financing is unrelated to a firm's current debt ratio or a target. We find that much of the available evidence in favor of target behavior based on leverage ratio changes can be reproduced for these samples. Taken together, our findings suggest that a number of existing tests of target behavior have no power to reject alternatives.